Alabama vs. Ohio State Odds & Picks: The Prop & Exotic Bets to Make for the CFP National Championship
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (1).
- Looking for more to bet than the typical spread and total picks for the College Football National Championship? Look no further.
- Mike Calabrese broke down plenty of exotic and prop bets ahead of kickoff for the Alabama vs. Ohio State game.
- Check out Calabrese's full betting analysis for his props and exotics below.
Alabama vs. Ohio State Odds
From the get-go, I thought the spread in this game was dead-on. And while I love Ohio State in underdog spots, the potential COVID-19 impact on its defensive line and the condition of Fields’ hip and ribs concern me enough to pass on the moneyline.
I will be playing the over, but that’s simply not enough action for the last college football game of the season. Sportsbooks across the country are posting player props and exotics, and I couldn’t be happier. Here’s what I’m playing Monday night.
DeVonta Smith Under 155 Receiving Yards (-125)
Let’s get this out of the way. Shaun Wade got absolutely cooked by Clemson’s receiving corps last week.
I know it, you know it, and the Ohio State staff knows it.
Which is why I don’t think we’re going to see a “best-vs-best” situation unfold on the perimeter between Smith and Wade. Ohio State doesn’t have the kind of depth to slide Wade back into the slot where he actually thrives, but it does have the ability to limit chunk plays with its scheme.
In the Sugar Bowl, the Buckeyes limited the big play against Clemson (Lawrence 8.3 yards per attempt). And, sure, they still gave up 400 yards through the air, but they made Clemson continually earn it.
The Tigers didn’t hit a single play of 30 yards or more in the entire game. If they can repeat that feat against Smith, nickel and diming your way to 156 receiving yards is a steep climb.
This is just a massive number, and I think the market has pushed it too high to pass up a play on under. I would play this under down to 149.5.
Slade Bolden Under 35 Receiving Yards (-120)
This one is pretty simple. I’m banking on Jaylen Waddle playing.
Word out of the Alabama camp has been promising, and even Saban has verbally upgraded him to a game-time decision. With Waddle sidelined, Bolden averaged three receptions and 36 yards per game.
In the four games in which Waddle started and played throughout? Zero receptions for zero yards. It’s that simple.
Waddle pretty much locks in a winning under ticket if he plays. And if he doesn’t, Bolden has gone under this total in four of his last seven games.
Justin Fields Under 55 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best case scenario, Fields is feeling OK and is simply wearing extra padding. Worst case, he’s really banged up and any hit could potentially take him out of this game.
Either way, Fields is a smart player and knows how to protect himself. We saw this in the second half against Clemson, with the athletic dual-threat sliding far in front of potential contact.
You can also count out those designed quarterback runs or at the very least a serious reduction in them in this one.
He’s also gone under this number in five of the Buckeyes’ six games this season. That last fact gives me confidence and makes swallowing the -115 juice a manageable proposition. I would play this down to 40.5 if it was properly priced in my favor.
Chris Olave to have 150+ Receiving Yards and Ohio State to Win (+1200)
From limiting the big plays of one receiver to hoping for a handful of home runs to another. I think Ohio State is a live dog in this one, but it all comes down to the value proposition of the moneyline.
At +245, I’m unmoved. But at +1200, you certainly have my attention.
When Olave has taken the field this season, he’s averaged 110 receiving yards per game, with 271 yards in his last two alone. Toss in that Alabama was torched by Florida’s Kadarius Toney (153 yards) and Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore (143 yards) this year, and it becomes clear that this is absolutely possible.
While there isn’t a crystal clear correlation between Olave going off and Ohio State winning, I’m confident that an Ohio State win will require at least 125 yards from the junior.
Longest Touchdown Over 54.5 yards (-175)
In Alabama and Ohio State’s last 10 games cumulatively, a touchdown of 50+ yards has been scored in eight of those contests.
The offenses in this one are explosive, and Alabama has a Heisman winner returning punts. I’m more than comfortable taking this over despite the juice.
Alabama Team Total Over 41.5 (-115) & Alternate Total Over 86 (+250)
Ohio State needs its defensive line to help out its secondary, and now there’s buzz that its COVID-19 issues are along the defensive line.
That’s really bad news for the Buckeyes. I think that could translate to a 50-burger for Alabama.
But the good news is that the Ohio State offense is peaking at the right time. Alabama played three SP+ top 15 offenses this year (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida).
In those games, the Tide surrendered an average of 520 total yards and 39 points. Ohio State is the No. 2 SP+ offense, and it just put up 659 yards and 49 points on Clemson. And that included an interception in the end zone.
This game could approach 100 total points when it’s all said and done, so I’m on the hunt for value. I’ll be playing a few alternate totals with my main focus on this one at 86.