Welcome to the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Eight teams will take the field on college campuses this week in an effort to move on to the CFP quarterfinals.
I broke down all 4 power first-round CFP games and dished out a pick (or 2 or 3) for each.
We'll start in Norman on Friday night, when the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners take on the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide in a rematch from the SEC regular season.
Then, on Saturday, we'll head to College Station, where the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies host the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes, who snuck into the playoff field over Notre Dame.
We'll then turn our attention to 2 games featuring Group of 5 teams. The No. 11 Tulane Green Wave meet the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels right before the No. 12 James Madison Dukes head to Eugene to face the No. 5 Oregon Ducks.
With so much to get to, let's take a look at my College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF predictions for the first-round CFP games on Friday, Dec. 19, and Saturday, Dec. 20.
College Football Playoff Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week's slate of College Football Playoff games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oklahoma vs Alabama Pick
The Alabama Crimson Tide takes on the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round of the College Football Playoff in Norman, Oklahoma, on Friday, Dec. 19. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. Alabama, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 favorite and is -105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 39.5 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football picks for Friday, December 19.
Alabama Crimson Tide
When it comes down to it, Alabama probably shouldn't have lost its Week 12 home game against Oklahoma, as it won the battle in yards per play and Points Per Scoring Opportunity.
Special teams and critical turnovers proved to be key in the Crimson Tide's loss. In fact, quarterback Ty Simpson threw an 87-yard pick-six to Eli Bowen for the Sooners' first touchdown of the game.
After throwing a single interception through the first nine games, Simpson has thrown half of his turnover-worthy plays in the last four games.
There's reason to think that Simpson could be dealing with an injury and that targets have been out of sync in catching the ball. Alabama has 26 drops on the season, with eight of them coming in the past two games against Auburn and Georgia.
The offense's success depends on Simpson's connection with receivers Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton and Ryan Williams.
The running game has been muted of late, as the Tide averaged 1.5 yards per play on the ground in the SEC Championship against Georgia.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack did have success in stopping the Oklahoma offense, limiting quarterback John Mateer to just 23 rushing yards.
Oklahoma was stuffed on more than half of its 26 rushing attempts in Week 12, finishing with a poor 27% Success Rate on passing downs.
The Alabama defense was tested the entire game, as Oklahoma was spotted an average starting field position at the 42-yard line. The Crimson Tide must be better on special teams, as OU punter Grayson Miller had six punts for 280 yards with three inside the 20-yard line.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma escaped with a 5% post-game win expectancy against Alabama thanks to defense and special teams. Since the Week 12 victory, the Sooners have won low-scoring affairs over Missouri and LSU, scoring a grand total of 34 points.
Oklahoma ranks at the top of FBS in nearly every defensive category, but a loss to Ole Miss in Week 9 on home soil could provide the blueprint for what kind of offense may have success.
The Rebels' zone read with Kewan Lacy and Trinidad Chambliss dominated the Sooners, but an uncharacteristic 18 missed tackles assisted Ole Miss in its victory.
There's no expectation that Oklahoma will have sloppy fundamentals in this one after missing a total of 20 tackles over the following three games against Tennessee, Alabama and Missouri.
The Oklahoma offense, meanwhile, has been sluggish over the final month, falling outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The national average for available yards gained is 44% for an FBS offense, but the Sooners have failed to eclipse 35% of available yards over their past three games.
After blazing the ground for Washington State a year ago, Mateer has generated only one run over 22 yards the entire season.
However, the connection between Mateer and slot receiver Isaiah Sategna III has been electric. The Arkansas transfer led the team in targets over the final three games, receiving 14 in the finale against LSU.
Sategna ended the season at 2.4 yards per route, easily the most explosive target in the Sooners' stable of options in the passing game.
Oklahoma vs Alabama Prediction
This exact game was part of my Week 12 card in November. Oklahoma was an underdog in the first game, but the Sooners have shifted to favorites this time around thanks to Simpson's issues throwing against this secondary.
Plenty of noise also surrounds Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer. The former Washington head coach is considered the first choice for the Michigan job, a factor that may gain more steam if the Crimson Tide were to lose in Norman.
The bigger need for Alabama in this game is health among key offensive players. Tight end Josh Cuevas and running back Jam Miller both sat out for the SEC Championship game. Miller wasn't listed on the most recent injury report, but Cuevas was listed as questionable.
As in Week 12, there remains a massive edge for Oklahoma on defense and special teams. The Sooners rank 21st in Special Teams SP+, with Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Tate Sandell leading the way.
Alabama sits in the bottom 25 of all FBS special teams units, a factor that could squander field position and require methodical drives to score.
The Alabama offense has been plagued by injuries and drops, two areas the Sooners defense will surely be aware of in the opening round of the playoff.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Oklahoma as a 2-point favorite, giving a bit of value to the Sooners.
Although OU isn't expected to create methodical drives, Mateer will lean heavily on his connection with Sategna. The Oklahoma quarterback should have time against a poor Alabama pass rush that has racked up just two sacks over its final two games.
Pick: Oklahoma ML -110
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Texas A&M vs Miami Pick
The Miami Hurricanes take on the Texas A&M Aggies in the first round of the College Football Playoff in College Station, Texas, on Saturday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas A&M is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. Miami, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami will look to prove the College Football Playoff committee right by winning the first-ever road game in this format's history.
The Hurricanes heated up over the final month of the season after a loss to SMU, outscoring their final four opponents, 151-41.
Miami continued to be elite in scoring position, living up to a rank of 15th in Finishing Drives thanks to 18 scores in 20 red-zone attempts.
Quarterback Carson Beck leads the balanced offense, throwing only a single interception over the final four games.
Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is the workhorse of the inside zone run concept used by the Hurricanes, as backup CharMar Brown has been the go-to back in man or gap blocking assignments from the offensive line.
Fletcher averages 3.4 yards after first contact behind a line that ranks 37th in Line Yards. Miami stays on schedule at the sixth-highest rate, but a lack of explosives has held both the rush and passing attack from quick scores.
Miami sits 134th in Rush EPA, ranking 123rd in 20-yard rushing attempts.
The lack of explosives has left the passing game in charge of creating chunk yardage. Wide receiver Malachi Toney is the player to watch from the slot, averaging 2.8 yards per route run with seven touchdowns on the season.
Slants and out routes have been the most explosive for Beck and Toney this season, putting an emphasis on A&M's coverage in the slot.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has produced one of the best defenses in years for Miami. The 4-2-5 ranks top-15 in nearly every category, including Havoc and opponent quality drives.
This is the top-ranked pass rush unit in the nation, thanks to 15 sacks from the edge players Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr.
Texas A&M Aggies
After years of stalled pro-style offenses under Jimbo Fisher, this version of Texas A&M under second-year coordinator Collin Klein can sizzle.
Quarterback Marcel Reed leads an offense that ranks third in Havoc allowed, as the Aggies don't allow offensive momentum killers.
The passing game was upgraded through the portal before the season, pulling Mario Craver from Mississippi State and KC Concepcion from NC State.
Concepcion is a first-down machine with 46 on the season, just shy of the lead for any FBS receiver. Craver ended the season at 3.4 yards per play, making him the fourth-most explosive target in college football.
The good news doesn't end with just the passing game, as star running back Le'Veon Moss is taking practice snaps after suffering an injury against Florida in Week 7.
The departure of Jay Bateman as defensive coordinator opened the door for senior assistant Lyle Hemphill to fill the role. There are no changes expected with the 3-3-5 defense, which has been a top-five Havoc unit in the country.
Taurean York, shifting from middle linebacker to outside linebacker, produced a season-high 11 tackles and assists in the season finale against Texas.
Meanwhile, edge rushers Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes have created 70 pressures this season for a top-15 overall rank in pass rush.
The best part of the Texas A&M defense is its ability to limit big plays, ranking top-20 in opponent EPA.
The issues that have plagued the unit all season revolve around tackling and opponent red-zone scoring. PFF has moved Texas A&M inside the top 90 in tackle grading, but Sports Info Solutions puts the Aggies at 106th in broken tackles allowed.
Throughout the season, the defense allowed 86 opponent possessions to cross the 40-yard line, giving up an average of 4.4 points per trip. Texas A&M has been one of the worst red-zone defenses in FBS, ranking 131st while allowing 30-of-32 opponent attempts to end in a score.
Texas A&M vs Miami Prediction
This College Football Playoff game is in the Jefferson Pilot timeslot, an 11 a.m. local kick that should moderately trim the enthusiasm of A&M's 12th Man.
Along with the morning start, there's reason to think Texas A&M will start this game slowly.
The Aggies struggled in the first half at home against South Carolina in Week 12, producing just a field goal before a ferocious second-half comeback. Texas A&M struggled again out of the gate against Texas, failing to produce any score in the first quarter.
A number of variables are in play for Texas A&M, from its offensive coordinator's impending departure to re-adding Moss into the ground game following his injury.
The biggest concern for the Texas A&M offense might be the Miami defense, which ranks third of all FBS teams in first-half scoring. The Hurricanes have allowed an average of 4.8 points in the first half throughout the entire season.
The Texas A&M offense will dictate its shots with Craver's wide receiver screens and Concepcion's crossing routes and hitches.
Covering the slot is paramount against Texas A&M, and Miami has searched for a slot corner since the loss of Keionte Scott against Syracuse. However, Scott is trending toward playing, according to recent injury reports.
Previously, Bryce Fitzgerald was moved off the role after two games against NC State and Virginia Tech, allowing 4-of-6 targets to be caught for 70 yards.
Outside of Scott, the deciding factor may be who defended Pitt slot receiver Raphael Williams Jr. best in Week 14.
All options were torched with the exception of Fitzgerald, who should pull duties with Scott against Craver and Concepcion on inside routes.
The great news for the Miami defense is a season-long above-average Success Rate against hitch and crossing routes, as the Hurricanes have created a negative EPA against both route concepts.
On the other side, don't expect the Hurricanes to have explosive plays, but a Texas A&M defense that struggles when it comes to tackling fundamentals could provide an assist.
The Aggies use a heavy amount of Cover 3 and Cover 1 with their nickel defense, with 24% of opponent passing attempts coming against man coverage.
Beck has dominated Cover 3 this season with a 58% Success Rate while producing an explosive play on 20% of attempts against Cover 1.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite, giving little value in the current market.
The Hurricane defense should stymie the Aggie offense in the first half, as Texas A&M looks to integrate a running game while shifting Craver, Concepcion and Ashton Bethel-Roman through wide receiver screens and crossers.
The Aggies should find success later in the game from the slot position, making a first-half under the initial play of the game.
Despite a lack of explosives, Miami's scoring opportunities should result in a score. The Texas A&M defense collapses when opponents get into scoring position, an area Miami has dominated with a rank of 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
There's a similar scenario on the other side of the ball, as the Aggies offense ranks 26th in Points Per Opportunity against a Hurricanes defense that's eighth of all FBS teams.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5 · Miami +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Ole Miss vs Tulane Pick
The Tulane Green Wave take on the Ole Miss Rebels in the first round of the College Football Playoff in Oxford, Mississippi, on Saturday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Ole Miss is favored by 17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. Tulane, meanwhile, enters as a +17.5 underdog and is +650 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here’s my Tulane vs. Ole Miss prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane had an improbable run to the College Football Playoff, winning five consecutive games to end the season. The Green Wave entered the American Championship game as underdogs to North Texas.
The Mean Green outgained the Wave en route to 415 yards, but four turnovers assisted Tulane in field position and scoring opportunities. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff added two rushing touchdowns to a season total of 16.
Retzlaff has had a tremendous season since transferring from BYU, leading a balanced offensive attack for Tulane. Running back Javin Gordon also assists in the heavy zone read attack, forcing 28 missed tackles this season.
The rushing attack has been inconsistent this season, but Retzlaff leads a passing attack that ranks in the top 20 in Success Rate. Wideout Shazz Preston and slot Bryce Bohanon each boast a yards-per-route-run mark of over 2.3 yards.
The biggest headache for head coach Jon Sumrall has been the nickel defense. Outside of generating a top-30 pass rush, there's a lack of highlights in the season-long statistics.
Tulane sits outside the top 50 in key areas such as Havoc, opponent quality drives, explosives allowed and coverage. There are several areas where the Green Wave fall out of the top 100, including broken tackles allowed and penalties.
The Ole Miss passing attack should have success, as Tulane ranks 130th in creating a contested catch.
Ole Miss Rebels
The psyche of Ole Miss players will be put to the test after completing the best season in program history. The departure of head coach Lane Kiffin after the Egg Bowl created significant turmoil, as the former coach demanded that staff board a private jet bound for Baton Rouge.
Starting center Brycen Sanders and edge Suntarine Perkins both refuted Kiffin's exiting statement. The drama with Kiffin has continued since his departure, sending cryptic tweets to quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who's rumored to hit the portal on Jan. 2.
Detecting motivation can be tricky during bowl season, but hosting a first-ever playoff game in the wake of a coach's departure should create an amped-up Ole Miss roster.
The offense has been one of the best in the nation in terms of Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives and methodical possessions.
Chambliss took over starting quarterback duties in Week 3, posting one of the most mistake-free profiles of any signal-caller in FBS. The Ferris State transfer has a microscopic turnover-worthy play rate of 1.8% through 365 dropbacks.
The Ole Miss offense starts with running back Kewan Lacy, who has averaged 3.3 yards after first contact on 259 attempts this season. The Missouri transfer has forced a whopping 89 missed tackles while posting 33 attempts of 10-plus yards.
Only one player has forced more missed tackles than Lacy this season (Jacksonville State's Cam Cook). Tulane's ability to stop inside zone, man blocking and power concepts will determine the outcome of this playoff game.
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding will take over as head coach in 2026, but first has to lead a playoff run with his nickel defense.
Depending on down and distance, Ole Miss pivots between a 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 with consistent struggles against the rush. The Rebels sit outside the top 100 in Defensive Line Yards but rank in the top 35 in PFF tackle grading and broken tackles allowed, which have tampered with opponent explosives.
Ole Miss has been much better in pass coverage, running one of the heaviest amounts of zone through quarters and Cover 3.
Ole Miss vs Tulane Prediction
The handicap in this game starts with the Ole Miss defense's ability to stop Retzlaff. The quarterback is responsible for 16 of Tulane's 26 rushing touchdowns.
The Green Wave use a heavy amount of zone read with a two-tight end wrinkle when it comes to outside zone. Tulane has decent efficiency with these concepts, but they haven't generated enough explosives.
Ole Miss has defended the inside zone well this season with a high 65% Success Rate. However, the Rebels fall to a 39% Success Rate against outside zone.
There's no doubt that Retzlaff will attempt to get around the Rebels' edge defenders.
Retzlaff has 79 designed rushing attempts after taking out scrambles and sneaks. Of those 79 rushing attempts, 42 have come from outside zone read with nine explosive runs.
With Gordon running the ball outside the tackles on less than 30% of attempts, Retzlaff's rushing yards prop or anytime touchdown could easily cash at the window.
The Ole Miss offense will dominate the Tulane defense, similar to the Week 4 boat-race.
Chambliss took advantage of a lackluster Green Wave defense that allowed at least two first downs on 8-of-11 offensive possessions. The Rebels average 7.9 yards per play, nearly double the total posted by the Tulane offense.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Ole Miss to win the game by 17, but home-field advantage might be undervalued in the College Football Playoff.
There's plenty of player motivation to defend Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and renounce a coach who misspoke on the current roster's intentions.
Pick: Ole Miss -17.5 · Retzlaff Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
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Oregon vs James Madison Pick
The James Madison Dukes take on the Oregon Ducks in the first round of the College Football Playoff in Eugene, Oregon. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Oregon is favored by -21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2100. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my JMU vs. Oregon prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
James Madison Dukes
James Madison’s 121st-ranked strength of schedule casts a shadow over the season-long counting statistics.
The Dukes are a rush-heavy offense, electing to run the ball on 63% of snaps, with a strong tendency toward inside zone and power concepts.
Running back Wayne Knight is one of the most elusive rushers in the country, averaging 3.8 yards after first contact while forcing 43 missed tackles.
Knight has nine rushing touchdowns on the season, fewer than his zone-read counterpart, quarterback Alonza Barnett III. The fourth-year senior has 14 rushing touchdowns along with another 21 through the air.
What James Madison lacks in quality drives (outside the top 40 nationally), the Dukes make up for in pass explosives (top 25).
Head coach Bob Chesney has maintained one staple from the Curt Cignetti era in Harrisonburg: a havoc-minded defense. The Dukes rank in the top 15 in creating chaos, thanks to a similar number of tackles for loss and pass breakups.
James Madison ranks third in contested catches per SportsInfo Solutions, led by safety Tyler Brown, who allows less than half of his targets to be caught, alongside six interceptions. The Oregon offensive tackle position must be on point, as Xavier Holmes and Sahir West have combined for 72 pressures this season.
Oregon Ducks
Armed with new coordinators for the playoffs, head coach Dan Lanning has no worries that Eugene will provide the home-field advantage needed to host a playoff game.
Oregon battled down the stretch through numerous injuries, specifically in the wide receiver unit.
Gary Bryant Jr has not played since Week 11 against Iowa, while freshman Dakorien Moore has not fielded a target since Week 9 against Wisconsin.
Not only are the targets looking to make a return in the first round of the playoffs, but former Texas A&M wideout Evan Stewart has also been taking repetitions in practice.
The Ducks' offense ended the season as a run-based offense because of injuries, but this might be the most explosive version of an Oregon team that already ranks in the top 35 in EPA.
The nickel defense has eliminated opponents' best offensive players over the final month of the season. Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. was held to 27 rushing yards while posting two interceptions. In Week 13, Oregon limited Biletnikoff Award winner Makai Lemon to 34 yards on 15 targets.
The focus in hosting a playoff game will come against James Madison's rush-heavy offense. The Ducks have posted a mid-FBS grade in stopping zone-read concepts, but have shut down explosive plays.
Oregon opponents have a negative EPA on zone-read plays while generating an explosive run on just 6% of attempts.
James Madison is not a pass-heavy offense, as there are no expectations of success against a Ducks defense that is top 10 in preventing explosive plays.
Oregon vs James Madison Prediction
The potency of the Oregon offense is unknown leading into the playoff game.
Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr are expected back on the field as targets for quarterback Dante Moore, but the extent of their health is unknown.
With such a large point spread, there is an avenue for Dan Lanning to use power running with Jordon Davison and Noah Whittington against a James Madison defense that ranks 89th nationally in rush EPA allowed.
In a loss to Louisville during Week 2, the Dukes allowed 4.9 yards per play on the ground, while the Cardinals' offense doubled the number of plays in standard downs than passing downs.
Oregon is expected to stay on schedule, but if a pass is down, Oregon should limit the James Madison pass rush.
The Ducks lead the nation in PFF's pass-blocking grades, led by tackles Alex Harkey and Isaiah World. The two tackles have allowed just a single sack in nearly 700 pass blocking snaps this season.
James Madison will also look to stay in standard downs via the rush. Oregon has been a much better pass defense throughout the season using Quarters and Cover 1 concepts, ranking in the top 10 in opponent pass efficiency and explosives allowed.
The Dukes' hopes will come on the ground between Barnett and Knight, using inside-zone and power-run concepts. The Ducks have been elite against power concepts, with a 55% success rate, while allowing minimal explosives.
However, James Madison should be able to create some methodical drives through inside-zone concepts. The Oregon defense produced a negative play on just 1 in 20 inside-zone attempts by opponents.
The Ducks have produced elite numbers against a top-20 schedule, but opponent scoring position has been a problem this season. Oregon ranks 77th nationally in defensive finishing drives and 126th in opponent red-zone scoring. In 24 opponent red zone trips, the Ducks have allowed 18 touchdowns.
The Action Network projection makes Oregon a 14.5-point favorite, so we show value with the Dukes.
'There could be an argument that home-field advantage in the playoffs is worth more, after a short sample of four home teams all covered in 2024.
There is a large scoring discrepancy between these two teams that signals a backdoor cover in this game. Oregon is the second-highest scoring differential team in the first half this season, with a margin of +16.17 points. Conversely, James Madison ranks second nationally in the second half at +15.54.
Pick: Oregon 1H -10.5 (-140) · JMU +21.5 · Alonza Barnett III Anytime TD (+210)
