The No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2, 6-2 SEC) take on the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3, 7-1 SEC) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 19, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma, which enters as a -1.5 favorite, got the best of Alabama when these teams faced off in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15, winning 23-21, despite getting outplayed in the box score.
Yet, that game didn't stop the Crimson Tide from making their way to the SEC Championship. However, Alabama fell flat against Georgia and suffered a 28-7 loss to Georgia that put it closer to the edge of the playoff field.
With another rematch on deck Friday night, who holds the advantage this time around?
We polled 8 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Oklahoma vs. Alabama picks and college football predictions for the College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 19.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Oklahoma -1.5
Our money’s on the Sooners.
Yes, Oklahoma barely snuck out of Tuscaloosa with a win in Week 12 and was outgained by over 250 total yards.
But there are plenty of subtle advantages that swing the matchup in favor of a repeat victor.
As Stuckey mentioned on this week’s episode of the "Big Bets On Campus" podcast, the Sooners are in a much better situational spot.
The extra rest and prep time give OU quarterback John Mateer time to get healthier, and he’s essential to Oklahoma’s offense — the Sooners are almost entirely reliant on his dual-action ability.
Plus, Mateer should have plenty of time in the pocket against Alabama’s lousy pass rush, which has managed just two sacks across the past two games.
It also gives head coach Brent Venables two weeks to scheme against Alabama’s one-dimensional offense.
The Tide can’t run the ball, ranking 131st nationally in Rushing Success Rate. Meanwhile, quarterback Ty Simpson might not be healthy, and his receivers keep dropping passes.
All this would leave Alabama’s offense in a tough spot on the road against an elite defense (the Sooners rank second nationally in Success Rate allowed).
Ah, yes… home-field advantage.
Stuckey projects home-field advantage is worth over four points to the spread in this spot. Remember when all four home teams dominated in last year’s first round?
Meanwhile, as Collin Wilson points out in his weekly column, Oklahoma has a significant advantage on special teams.
The Sooners rank 21st nationally in Special Teams SP+. Kicker Tate Sandell won the Lou Groza award and is worth almost 1.5 points to the spread.
Meanwhile, Alabama ranks among the bottom 25 in Special Teams SP+. The kicking and punting situations are both sketchy at best.
Field position and kicking could be the deciding factors in what projects as a low-scoring affair. It worked to Oklahoma’s advantage in the first meeting, as the Sooners posted 1.93 Special Teams EPA to Alabama’s -4.10.
This should be a grinder decided on the margins, just as the first game was. With that in mind, Oklahoma is healthier, more dynamic on offense, better on defense, better on special teams, and will have a rowdy home crowd on its side.
Boomer Sooner.
Over/Under Pick
Over 41.5 | 1 Pick |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 41.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 41.5
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff favors under 41.5 points in Oklahoma vs. Alabama, with six of our eight votes on the under. Given the stout nature of both defenses and less-than-inspiring offenses, the lean makes sense.
The first matchup from Week 12 featured 44 combined points, but only 37 of those came from offensive scores.
Neither team has run the ball particularly well this year. Oklahoma ranks 128th in Rushing Success Rate, and Alabama comes in at 131st.
The Tide’s run game gets a boost with the return of Jam Miller, who missed a large chunk of the season — including Week 12 against Oklahoma — due to injury.
Daniel Hill served as the lead rusher in that game, scoring twice, but amassing just 60 yards on 15 carries.
Without a run game, the scoring burden falls directly into quarterback Ty Simpson’s hands. A preseason Heisman favorite, Simpson has been excellent with 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
But, at times, he has been unable to advance the ball, and freshman phenom receiver Ryan Williams has nearly fallen to the wayside, regressing significantly from 2024.
On the other side, QB John Mateer just hasn’t been the same since returning from injury, especially on the ground.
That hampered the entire offense to a ranking of 79th in Points Per Drive during the regular season and a mark of 112th in Success Rate.
Oklahoma failed to break 24 points in its final four games after its second bye.
On the season, the Sooners scored 30 just once against a power conference opponent, Week 10 against Tennessee (and they managed only two offensive touchdowns in that outing).
Games involving Oklahoma failed to hit 41 four times in SEC play.
On paper, Alabama’s offense appears to be just fine. But in practice, especially against better defenses like Georgia and Oklahoma, the whole operation is just clunky.
Perhaps the addition of Miller will help the Tide smooth things out, but the off-rhythm offense could be in serious trouble against a disruptive front like Oklahoma's.
This total has shown no signs of moving up since open, so we'll take the under.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 41.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
- Oklahoma vs. Alabama Spread: Oklahoma -1.5, Alabama +1.5
- Oklahoma vs. Alabama Over/Under: 41.5
- Oklahoma vs. Alabama ML: Oklahoma ML -115, Alabama ML -105
