Army-Houston Betting Guide: CFB’s Tortoise vs. Hare in 2018 Armed Forces Bowl

2018 Armed Forces Bowl Betting Odds: Army-Houston

• Odds: Army -5
• Over/Under: 60
• Date: Saturday, Dec. 22
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

If the NFL is a copycat league, college football is its free-spirited counterpart.

There's plenty of copying that goes on, sure. But there are different ways to cultivate dynamic offenses and win games — Houston and Army are the antithesis of each other and still each put up points.

The Cougars run the most plays per minute of any team in the country, and play at one of the 10 fastest paces of any team in the last 15 years. Army is the opposite — the Knights rank second-to-last in plays per minute thanks to a triple-option offense that drives opposing defenses to madness.

They average nearly two fewer possessions per game (9.83) than the second-slowest team in that regard, Washington (11.46).

Which will win out here — tortoise or hare?

Odds Movement for Army-Houston

By Danny Donahue

Within a day of this line opening, Army had moved from -5 to -3. Since then, however, 76% of bets and 68% of dollars behind Army have brought the line back to its opening number of -5.

The total has seen some significant movement as well, falling by more than a touchdown from its opener at some books. After being released at 67.5, it’s now listed at 60 thanks to 80% of bets and 71% of dollars on the under.

Trends to Know for Armed Forces Bowl

By John Ewing

Service academies are 16-8 (against the spread) ATS in bowl games since 2005 and 6-1 ATS when favored.

By Evan Abrams

Service academies have won nine consecutive bowl games straight up when listed as favorites dating back to 1990. In that span, they are 8-1 ATS, but Army has only one of these nine games, facing North Texas in the 2016 First Responder Bowl, where the Black Knights needed overtime to survive.

Talent Gap

By Steve Petrella

Talent is paramount in college football. And recruiting rankings matter. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. But do they in this game?

Houston has the 51st-most talented roster in the country, per 247Sports' team talent composite. Army comes in at 126th. It's the biggest gap in this bowl season.

The trouble for Houston is talent doesn't always win out when you're playing Army. The triple option is designed precisely to neutralize the talent gap the bigger schools will always have over service academies that can't recruit the best athletes and will always be undersized at the line of scrimmage.

But if you believe in talent winning out (i.e. no team in the recruiting ranking era, since 2002, has won a national title without averaging a top-15 class over the previous four years) Houston has a major edge.

Houston Without Two Stars

By Steve Petrella

Houston will be without defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who is prepping for the NFL Draft. He'll be a top-10 pick in all likelihood.

But the more important loss is probably star quarterback D'Eriq King, who injured his knee in November and gave way to Clayton Tune for the season finale.

Tune played one full game for the Cougars — he went 18 of 43 for 256 yards and three scores. But he only ran for 12 yards on 13 carries; a dynamic quarterback has been essential to Houston's offense for years now.

Tune, a true freshman, is nowhere near the athlete King is, but he's gotten all the snaps with the first team during bowl practice.

Third Downs Will Be the Difference

By Stuckey

Army finished No. 1 in the nation in third-down conversion rate. And believe it or not, its defense also finished in the top 3 in that same category. And while Houston has an excellent third-down offense (top 20), its defense ranked 110th.

Expect Army to convert without much resistance on all of its third-and-short situations against a Houston defense that ranks 100th in third-and-short success rate.

The Cougs will really miss Ed Oliver and their other two starters on the defensive line. Just look at what Navy’s triple option attack did against Houston without Oliver: 67 rush attempts for 349 yards. (5.2 per carry).

In the last five games of the season, Houston had one of the worst run defenses in the country, allowing 6.1 yards per carry. For context, only four FBS teams allowed more than 6.0 yards per carry this year.

And not only does Army’s defense rank No. 1 in that same category, Army actually also ranks No. 1 in the nation in average third down distance on both offense and defense.

And if for whatever reason the Black Knights don’t convert on third and short, they should have no issues going for it on fourth down. Army also led the nation in fourth-down conversion percentage at a stunning 86.1% on 36 attempts (tied third nationally).

Who's More Motivated?

By Stuckey

Even though Army won this same bowl last season, it's a service academy. I personally never worry about motivation with the Black Knights, who have won their bowl game in each of the past two seasons under head coach Jeff Monken.

Conversely, Houston has lost each of its past two bowl games in 2016 and 2017 under Major Applewhite, who I’m sure will want to get his first bowl win as a head coach. On the surface, you would think Houston would be motivated.

However, given all their injuries and the Oliver situation, I’m not sure this team will be that excited to face the Army triple-option attack — even in Texas — especially considering how the run defense looked in the latter part of the season.

A Case for the Under

By Stuckey

I know the total has dropped, but I still don’t think it's low enough. Given its unique style, oddsmakers really struggle to set both spreads and totals for Army.

We know it will control the clock and dominate time of possession. The Black Knights averaged 20 more plays per game than their opponents, which I expect them to do against Houston.

Just look at what that ball control did to the most explosive offense in the country in Oklahoma in Norman — held the Sooners to 21 points in regulation because they only touched the ball seven times.

The clock will be speeding throughout this one, as it does with most Army games — and it will keep the sticks moving to keep this under 60.

Stuckey's Pick: Under 60

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

In terms of stability, these two teams are heading in opposite directions. Army has put together another fantastic campaign at 10-2, winning the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, and almost notching the upset of the season over Oklahoma.

Houston has had its share of negative news on and off the field. Ed Oliver will not play in this game after Coat-Gate and the decision to sit out for the NFL Draft.

The Cougars lost three of their last four games with an injury to quarterback D’Eriq King against Tulane. King had 50 total touchdowns before the injury, leaving large shoes for backup Clayton Tune.

After a season-ending loss to Memphis, 52-31, Cougars head coach Major Applewhite fired his defensive coordinator. The defensive staff is now in preparation to take on a triple-option attack of Army.

When handicapping an Army game, you always start with the defensive line of the opponent. Houston ranked 42nd in opportunity rate and 73rd in stuff rate for the season, with a large portion of those statistics coming with Oliver in the lineup.

The defensive line was just 72nd in havoc on the season, all of which translate to not plugging gaps against the rush or causing disruption in the backfield.

I'm backing Army in this spot, as there are plenty of statistical advantages in third down, havoc, passing downs defense. The Black Knights are first in the nation in third-down conversions at 55.6%, compared to the Cougars who are bottom 20 in third-down defense at 44.7%.

This could cause a serious issue with time of possession, where Army ranks first in the nation to Houston ranking dead last. Houston will need to make each possession count, as it could be limited similar to what happened to Oklahoma earlier this year.

Tune has his work cut out for him as Army ranks 28th against passing downs explosiveness and is third in the nation at defensive back havoc. Expect Army to impose its will on both sides of the ball and win a third straight bowl.

Collin's Pick: Army -5