The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first top 25 rankings on October 31. The Action Network will bring you the latest CFB rankings along with power ratings, current futures odds and some chatter about the paths of the potential teams involved throughout the remainder of the season.
Updated Odds – October 17th
|19||North Carolina State||-14||+5000|
Only Alabama (-115) and Georgia (+1400) are leading at the turn for the home stretch in the SEC. Auburn (+5000) has a major role to play with games hosting both Georgia and Alabama. It’s impossible to take any War Eagle future with two losses. They would need to beat Alabama and potentially Georgia twice. The Bulldogs and Tide each have that get out of jail free card, meaning they can still drop a game and be relevant to the College Football Playoff. An Alabama team with one loss to Auburn wouldn’t make the SEC Championship Game but certainly would be the best at-large wild card for the selection committee. Georgia will be double-digit favorites against the rest of the SEC East and only need to go 1-1 against Auburn and Georgia Tech (a revenge game for Kirby Smart) to make the SEC Championship Game (a quarterfinal for the national title).
NC State’s (+5000) odds have not changed, but the Wolfpack has one heck of schedule to win out, requiring victories over Clemson and Notre Dame before winning the ACC Championship Game. Clemson (+1600) burns their free loss pass and must now win out in games against Georgia Tech, NC State and Florida State before going to the ACC Championship Game. There is plenty of action left in the Coastal, as Miami (+4000), Virginia Tech (+30000) and Virginia all still have yet to play each other.
All signs in the North point to Stanford (+50000) hosting Washington (+4000) on a Friday Night in November. Washington lost a left tackle and corner to season-ending injuries during the Arizona State loss, and their futures are looking bleak. All eyes in the South are on USC (+2800), whose odds improved with a slim victory against Utah. The Trojans have a tricky road spot against Arizona State coming up, and the Sun Devils could take control of the South with that game if they survive Utah this week.
Wisconsin (+2500) was the suggestion last week and should continue to coast right to the Big Ten Championship game. Even a loss against Michigan later this year shouldn’t prevent them from essentially playing in a quarterfinal game for the national title. Ohio State (+600) currently sits in the driver’s seat in the East since they will host both Penn State (+1200) and Michigan State (+30000). The Nittany Lions could easily lose only one game again this season, which could keep them out of the Big Ten Championship Game and make the selection committee sweat over a controversial decision similar to 2016.
Let the cannibalism continue in the Big 12. Three teams now have legitimate shots at the national championship. TCU (+5000) remains undefeated, but contests at Iowa State and Oklahoma (+3300) remain. Home visits from Texas and Baylor also loom. Oklahoma State (+2500) has one conference loss thanks to TCU. This is the Big 12 where a loss or two will be forgiven. There are plenty of one-loss conference teams that could spoil the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington. Even Texas with three total losses has a legitimate shot at going to Arlington and winning the conference.
Group of Five
With San Diego State stepping out of the way, the Central Florida (+10000) and South Florida (+30000) playoff the day after Thanksgiving is officially on. The Knights and Bulls could be aided by some two-loss Power Five conference winners. The selection committee will tip their first hand in two weeks on Halloween night.
Week 7 Add: Virginia Tech 300-1
It’s a tough week to make an add, as you want to look for a team that can afford a loss while still having value in the number. Georgia, Alabama and TCU fit that bill. It can be argued there is no value in Alabama at -105. Georgia still has tough games at Auburn, short favorites against Georgia Tech followed by being a possible dog in the SEC Championship game. It’s early in the Big 12, so TCU has plenty of teams scheduled that can expose their one problem area (explosive plays). We will take a longshot dog with a clear hedge opportunity. That team is Virginia Tech.
The Hokies are currently on a bye week but follow up hosting North Carolina and Duke. When November 4 rolls around for Miami, Virginia Tech should have much better odds than the current 300-1. I have Miami as a short favorite, making this your first chance to hedge the Hokies’ future. The ACC Championship game will make the second time to hedge, along with the semifinal. In the end, if Virginia Tech makes a run to the playoff, you could be entering with a 150-1 bet after safeguarding with your hedge spots.