The College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its top 25 every Tuesday until the conference championships. The Action Network will bring you the latest CFP rankings along with power ratings, current futures odds and some chatter about the paths of the potential teams involved throughout the remainder of the season.
Updated Odds – November 21st
|Legend: No Odds|
Alabama mangled Mercer and retained their spot as the No. 1 team in the CFP rankings. The SEC entry is clear: Alabama visits No. 6 Auburn this week, and the winner will move on to the SEC Championship Game against No. 7 Georgia. The Tide are currently 4.5 point favorites and project to be under a touchdown against the Bulldogs. A moneyline parlay card taking Alabama against Auburn, Georgia, a semifinal playoff opponent and a national championship opponent would pay more than the current +120. The same can be said about Auburn, which is currently +170 against Alabama.
The ACC Championship Game is set, and the winner will more than likely take a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the final CFP ranking. No. 2 Miami could have a letdown spot this week against Pitt, but it would not affect their shot at a national title if they beat No. 3 Clemson. The Tigers must escape their rivalry game with No. 24 South Carolina to be in the national title hunt.
No. 11 USC struggled to put UCLA away, but their slim chances of making the playoff still exist. Their opponent for the Pac-12 Championship Game will be Stanford or Washington State. No. 22 Stanford will be scoreboard watching against Notre Dame, as the Huskies and Cougars play at the same time. A No. 13 Washington State upset of No. 17 Washington sends Wazzu to the Pac-12 Championship over Stanford. With the Trojans behind Ohio State and Penn State in the two-loss category, it would take a full dose of Team Chaos to have a Pac-12 team in the playoff.
Still humming along, No. 5 Wisconsin took down Michigan in Week 12. Do they hold the keys as the only hope in the Big Ten for a chance at the CFP? Wisconsin would need to win three straight games as a dog against to cash the current +1150. No. 9 Ohio State needed style points against Illinois but failed to cover the large spread. Another style effort is needed in their rivalry game against Michigan. Is there value in the current +1550? There is no indication from the committee a two-loss conference champion from the Big Ten would jump a one-loss Wisconsin, Miami or even Alabama.
No. 4 Oklahoma is on track for a playoff appearance with Will Grier-less West Virginia and the Big 12 Championship left to play. Grier will not be under center for the Mountaineers in Week 13, giving the Sooners an easier path to Arlington. There may be some value in the current +535, as I only have them a dog to Alabama in a head-to-head matchup. No. 12 TCU disposed of Texas Tech without issue, while No. 19 Oklahoma State’s dreams of attending the CFP or Big 12 Championship Game were dashed with a loss to Kansas State.
Group of Five
The CFP selection committee has No. 15 Central Florida, No. 20 Memphis and No. 23 Boise in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bowl. The Group of Five is essentially out of the running for the CFP, but the Golden Knights’ game with South Florida should provide plenty of entertainment.
Week 13 Add: Ohio State +1550
No. 9 Ohio State needs help to reach the playoff, but the path is there. No. 2 Miami and No. 3 Clemson should take care of each other, leaving two other spots for No. 4 Oklahoma and the SEC Champion. The fourth spot will be a hot debate, as Big Ten champion Ohio State would have resumes compared with one-loss Miami and possibly Alabama. The Buckeyes have a strength of schedule in the top 15, while Alabama and Miami rank in the 30’s. There is value in +1550, as Ohio State would only be an underdog to the Crimson Tide. (My numbers make Alabama -4.)
Week 7: Virginia Tech 100-1
Week 8: Wisconsin 25-1
Week 9: Georgia 12-1
Week 10: Clemson 13-1
Week 11: USC 100-1
Week 12: Pass (Clemson +725)
Week 13: Ohio State +1550