Saturday brings us an SEC showdown, as the Auburn Tigers (3-2, 0-2 SEC) host the No. 10 Georgia Bulldogs (4-1, 2-1 SEC) at Jordan-Hare Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Bulldogs rebounded from their loss to Alabama 2 weeks ago with a 35-14 victory over Kentucky. The Tigers, meanwhile, have lost 2 straight after falling to Texas A&M, 16-10, before their bye week.
Action Network's do-it-all man, Tanner McGrath, came through with a parlay that sets up well for the home team, featuring a moneyline play and three player props for the star players.
Here are his Auburn vs. Georgia picks and NCAAF parlay for Saturday, October 11.
Auburn vs. Georgia Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Auburn vs. Georgia Picks, Predictions, Same Game Parlay
- Auburn ML
- Jackson Arnold 200+ Passing Yards
- Cam Coleman 80+ Receiving Yards
- Nate Frazier Under 31.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +1800 (bet365)
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Moneyline Pick: Auburn ML
Regarding the schematic matchup, two things stand out to me.
First, Georgia’s pass rush isn’t what it used to be. The Dawgs rank 108th nationally in sacks per game and 123rd in PFF’s Pressure grades. Top edge rusher Gabe Harris Jr. has recorded four total pressures on 35 sets.
While Auburn’s offensive line hasn’t been excellent in pass protection, I believe the numbers are deflated after tough matchups against Texas A&M and Oklahoma’s elite defensive lines.
If the Tigers’ offensive line holds up — remember, this is still an extremely veteran unit that entered the season with over 140 combined career FBS starts — that would be huge for quarterback Jackson Arnold, who struggles mightily in dirty pockets.
Arnold has been pressured 41 times over the past two weeks, taking 15 sacks. Pockets should be much cleaner this week.
Second, Georgia has been brutal in back-end coverage. Top cornerbacks Ellis Robinson IV and Dylan Everette have allowed 266 yards on 32 targets (8.3 YPT) with one combined PBU.
That’s scary when facing Auburn’s elite wide receiver corps.
What do you get when you combine a poor pass rush with poor coverage? A garbage pass defense. Georgia ranks 101st nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed (0.13) and Pass Success Rate allowed (45%).
Arnold and the Tiger passing attack haven’t been world beaters this season, but this figures to be a plus-matchup for them after two brutal opponents.
Most of Auburn’s offensive success has been on the ground, which is scary against a Georgia defense that ranks third nationally in EPA per Rush allowed (-0.24). However, Kirby Smart’s defenses have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks in the past, and Arnold could keep the defense honest with the threat of his legs — i.e., Georgia won’t be able to drop seven or eight back in coverage and may have to commit a spy.
On the other side of the ball, my hope is that Auburn’s cornerbacks can step up in coverage — Kayin Lee and Jay Crawford have been decent, allowing only 11 catches on 22 targets for 143 yards (50% completion, 6.5 YPT).
If they do, it’s a massive advantage for Auburn.
The Tigers are elite at stopping the run, ranking second nationally in EPA per Rush allowed (-0.31) and third in Rush Success Rate allowed (26%). So, I’m not sure where Georgia will turn for offensive production.
I like the matchup for Auburn, but I also think Georgia is overrated.
The Bulldogs aren’t an elite team anymore.
They haven’t played an overly demanding schedule — aside from Tennessee and Alabama, the Dawgs boast wins over Marshall, Austin Peay and Kentucky — yet rank outside the top-25 nationally in Net Success Rate (+8.5%, 38th), Net EPA per Play (+0.19, 34th), and Net Yards Per Play (+1.21, 41st).
I can see them stumbling on the road against a fresh and healthy Auburn team off a bye. And I’m willing to take a shot with the Tigers to pull off the upset.
Auburn Player Prop: Jackson Arnold 200+ Passing Yards
As you can probably tell, if Auburn is to win, I expect it’ll be because of Arnold’s arm.
The Tigers have to exploit Georgia’s pass defense. While they’re an elite rush offense (second nationally in EPA per Rush), a ground-and-pound attack won’t beat the Dawgs.
Instead, Arnold has to man up and throw it downfield, similar to how Joey Aguilar did in Tennessee’s unlucky overtime loss to Georgia a few weeks ago.
While it’s looked gross lately, 200 yards is not an unreachable feat for Arnold. He managed 220 on 32 attempts against Oklahoma despite the 10 sacks. I suspect he’ll see similar volume on Saturday, but from a much cleaner pocket.
Auburn Player Prop: Cam Coleman 80+ Receiving Yards
I flip-flopped between throwing Cam Coleman or Eric Singleton Jr. in this long-shot SGP. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer.
Ultimately, I landed on Coleman because of the big-play ability.
While Singleton is an elite wideout in his own right, he’s more of a possession receiver who has been targeted way too often behind the line of scrimmage — 15 of his 33 targets have been behind the LOS. Ultimately, that’s dragged down his ADOT (4.5), and more than half of his receiving yards have come after the catch (175 of 265).
Meanwhile, Coleman is a bona fide game breaker, having hauled in four of his seven targets 20-plus yards downfield for 141 yards and a touchdown. His ADOT is a healthy 14.4.
Obviously, he doesn’t record as many receptions (58% catch rate), which drags down his overall numbers. But he’s also run way more routes than Singleton (161 to 110), and he’ll have ample opportunity to make a few big-time catches against Georgia’s weak coverage unit.
Ultimately, I expect Arnold to be forced to throw the ball downfield, and I think Coleman gets the opportunities to make the big plays. I feel confident that he can rack up the yardage total against Georgia’s lousy back seven.
Georgia Player Prop: Nate Frazier Under 31.5 Rushing Yards
As mentioned, Auburn’s rush defense is elite.
I think it’ll be hard for the Dawgs to get a push on the offensive line. While Georgia ranks 61st nationally in Offensive Line Yards (3.1), Auburn leads the nation in Defensive Line Yards (1.7).
You could fade either of Georgia’s top two running backs in Chauncey Bowens or Nate Frazier. But I went with Frazier for two reasons.
First, Frazier is the less elusive back, which is a problem considering the Bulldogs won’t be opening up clear rushing lanes for him. Bowens is more likely to force missed tackles and create breakaway rushes.
Second, after beginning the year as the RB1, Frazier has seen his volume dip dramatically in the past few weeks, recording only 11 attempts combined against Alabama and Kentucky.
He’s apparently been dealing with a lower-body injury, which would explain the dramatic decrease in workload. I haven’t seen an update on his status, but there are only two options for Saturday: he’s either hurt and won’t get that many snaps, or he’s healthy and will still struggle against Auburn’s elite rush defense.
