BYU vs. Navy Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Monday, Sept. 7)
Boyd Ivey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: BYU quarterback Zach Wilson.
- Navy and BYU kick off on Monday night at 8:00 p.m. ET. After opening at +3, the BYU Cougars' spread has now moved to -1.5 or -2 across the betting industry.
- The over/under has also fallen dramatically from open. The consensus game total is 48.5, which is down 6.5 points from its opening line of 55.
- Find Collin Wilson's full betting preview with updated odds and picks below, including why he's targeting the first half under.
BYU vs. Navy Odds
|BYU Odds||-1.5 [BET NOW]|
|Navy Odds||+1.5 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||48.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
In a game with so little constants and an extreme amount of variables, the challenge is finding a pregame wager. Navy intended to fly to Dublin to take on Notre Dame, while BYU prepared for another round in the Holy War with Utah. While the teams and the destinations have changed, the coaching staff has stayed intact for both teams.
Another constant in this game comes from BYU in the form of quarterback Zach Wilson. Although Wilson was just named quarterback by head coach Kalani Sitake, he was the 2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl MVP and was denied a clear touchdown in last year’s Hawaii Bowl.
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) December 25, 2019
BYU was to return 78% of its 2019 offense that was 38th in success rate. The offense took a severe hit with the loss of star tight end Matt Bushman to injury. Bushman had 77 targets in 2019, tied with Micah Simon, who has since graduated. To make matters even more devastating, the next two top targets in Aleva Hifo and Talon Shumway have also graduated from the program.
On the Navy offensive side, it may be impossible to replace quarterback Malcolm Perry. The Midshipmen were 18th in success rate, with a ridiculous 96% scoring percentage in the red zone with 80% of those scores being touchdowns.
The Black Knights thought they had Malcolm Perry…but he had other ideas.
WHAT A MOVE. TOUCHDOWN NAVY. pic.twitter.com/PlpjbpfV3G
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) December 14, 2019
One area of stability for each team is the defense. Both the Cougars and Midshipmen return at least 62% of production on the defensive side, as both defenses ranked top-40 in finishing drives. The issue comes for BYU when opposing ground attacks. The Cougars ranked 109th in tackles for loss and outside the top 100 in defensive havoc, line yards and stuff rate.
Navy’s defense, led by coordinator Brian Newberry, is havoc-focused against both the rush and the pass. The Midshipmen were 30th in forced fumbles and 31st in interceptions.
A top-20 rank in defensive rushing success rate along with a top-30 rank in sack rate shows Navy should be able to force Wilson to make bad decisions. Top tacklers Diego Fagot, Kevin Brennan and Paul Carothers return against a BYU offense that has lost every skill position player in the passing game.
Expect the pace to be slow when Navy has the ball, as it ranked 115th in seconds per play last season. BYU’s offensive success rate may also be a contributing factor to a slow pace to start the game. Given what the Midshipmen return to a havoc-minded defense, a first half under and live Navy bet is on my betting menu Monday night.
The Picks: First Half Under 23.5 or better; Live Navy +3 or better