Cincinnati vs. Memphis Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Regression Looms for Bearcats

Cincinnati vs. Memphis Odds

• Spread: Memphis -13
• Over/Under: 57.5
• TV: ABC
• Time: Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Cincinnati vs. Memphis Line Movement

A popular side has yet to be determined on this point spread among public bettors, as the double-digit number seems to have them a bit hesitant to take the favorite. Fifty-two percent of bets have landed on Memphis, which opened around -10. The Tigers are now up to -13, however, even while generating just 44% of money.

The total has drawn 57% of bettors accounting for 74% of money to the under, yet the line has ticked up to 58.5, one point higher than the opener. — Danny Donahue

Collin Wilson: Will Cincinnati’s Luck Run Out?

If you listen to the Action Network Podcast, you know I’ve been calling for Cincinnati’s head to be served on a silver platter for a month. The Bearcats have collected recent victories over Temple, South Florida, East Carolina and Tulsa even though they were out-gained in each game.

Quarterback Desmond Ridder, who has dealt with confidence issues per head coach Luke Fickell, has thrown for 62 and 78 yards over his past two games.

Cincinnati does not have to win this game to make the AAC Championship Game, but Memphis can’t afford a loss. A victory for the Tigers would give them home-field advantage in a rematch with these Bearcats next weekend. A Memphis loss, coupled with a Navy win over Houston will send the Midshipmen to Cincinnati for the AAC Championship Game.

This will be a strength-on-strength battle between the Memphis offense and the Cincinnati defense. The Tigers rank 16th in passing success rate and 36th in rushing success rate, but the Bearcats are the 13th-best team in the country at preventing explosive passing plays and rank ninth at finishing drives on defense. I am expecting a grind of a game, as that is the only chance Cincinnati has to win.

The Action Network projected spread is Memphis -9, so a double-digit spread may be a little too high. However, i think the Under is a safer bet.

Collin’s Pick: The Bearcats’ defense ticks a lot of boxes and I don’t think Ridder will be able to move the ball. I’m looking to play the Under at 57.5 or better.

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Stuckey: A Fascinating Study in Game Theory

I completely agree with Collin on the Under here.

Memphis struggles at limiting explosive plays, but Cincinnati isn’t the type of team to exploit that weakness. That’s especially true of late since Ridder is nursing an injury to his throwing arm. It looks like he will go in this game but it’s certainly affecting his effectiveness when he drops back to pass.

The Bearcats can run the ball a little but they lack explosiveness and will go up against a solid Memphis defense. Also, don’t sleep on the fact that Cincinnati ranks dead last in FBS in penalty yards per game at 77.45. Their offensive line is constantly putting them behind the sticks which can only help Memphis an the under.

Cincinnati does a terrific job of limiting explosive plays, which is a critical part of the Memphis offensive attack. The Bearcats should also dominate the line of scrimmage when Memphis has the ball.

Both of these teams rank inside the top-30 in net punting yards, so expect both punters to flip the field. That obviously helps the under.

This is a fascinating game theory matchup. Memphis needs to win to clinch a spot in the AAC Championship. If the Tigers win, they will host these same Bearcats. So, how much does Cincinnati want to show here? Does Luke Fickell want to rest anybody, especially those nursing injuries?

I’m thinking no at the start, especially since Cincinnati still has bigger bowl aspirations but this could become a factor late in the game if Memphis is in control in the second half. You may see a freshman come in under center and both teams go super conservative to not show anything for the following week when they would meet again.

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