Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 12

Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 12 article feature image
Credit:

Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports.

  • Don't forget to sprinkle some moneyline underdogs into your college footballs picks for Week 12.
  • Our college football experts give their two favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.

As we do each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday’s college football slate.

Well, it took us 11 weeks but we finally did it! Last Saturday, we each hit our money line underdog as LSU and Western Kentucky came through for us.

For this week, we are each rolling with an afternoon Power 5 underdog.  If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays over 8-1.

  • 2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
  • 2019: 11-11 +5.25 units

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Wilson: Missouri +210

  • Spread: Florida -7
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Location: Columbia, MO
  • Time: Noon ET
  • TV: CBS

With an underwhelming record of 5-4 and little hope for the NCAA to reverse a postseason ban, this may be head coach Barry Odom’s last chance to prove 2019 was not a waste.

The Tigers also have games remaining against Tennessee and Arkansas, but neither would grab the attention of a fan base or athletic director like a victory over Florida.

Our Action Network projection makes this game Florida -5.5, but plenty of defensive statistics point to Missouri keeping this close.

The Gators have been one dimensional on offense, with almost no ground game. And the Tigers have an excellent secondary that is capable of sticking with the Florida wideouts and forcing Kyle Trask into a few critical mistakes.

Florida has lost two straight games to Missouri, but an 11 a.m. local kickoff in Columbia with a forecast calling for 31 degree temperatures could have the Gators coming out flat.

In yet another Jefferson Pilot time slot, the defenses should keep this close for a Missouri team that has looked like a completely different squad at home. Expect a motivated and healthy Missouri squad to challenge a Florida team just looking to get into its bye week.

Pick: Missouri +210 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Stuckey: Georgia Tech +200

  • Spread: Virginia Tech -6.5
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Location: Atlanta, GA
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

Believe it or not, Virginia Tech controls its own destiny in the ACC Coastal Division. After getting crushed at home by Duke, Tech has won four of five with the one loss coming at Notre Dame by a single point. (Although that loss in South Bend included a 99-yard fumble return for a touchdown that swung that game in the Hokies’ favor.)

However, if you dig a little deeper, Va Tech has been extremely fortunate over that stretch. Let’s throw out the win over Rhode Island and focus on the other three wins:

  • Beat UNC in five overtimes
  • Defeated Miami 42-35 thanks to a 5-0 turnover advantage despite being out-gained 563-337
  • Comprehensively beat Wake Forest but the Demon Deacons have been decimated by injuries in recent weeks

It’s been an impressive turnaround for the Hokies, but they could’ve easily lost two of those three. I haven’t warmed to the Hokies as much as the market has seemed to and I’m anxiously waiting for Georgia Tech to get to +7.

Yellow Jackets head coach Geoff Collins has impressed me as much as any coach in the country this season. He was tasked with one of the toughest chores I’ve seen in college football in a long time — transitioning a triple-option team to a spread offense with all triple-option personnel. Everything changes right down to the offensive line splits.

But Georgia Tech is making progress. And most importantly, still trying.

The offense is clearly improving each week as you’d expect with the transition, but credit Collins for keeping this team focused. It was very ugly at the beginning of the year after a home loss to The Citadel and then a 24-2 loss at Temple to close out September.

But things have looked a little more respectable over the past two months. Since going to James Graham at quarterback, the offense has improved by almost 10 points per game on average.

Georgia Tech got a win at Miami to close out October and then lost two competitive games against Pitt and Virginia with the latter coming by only five points in Charlottesville.

Collins will have his now confident troops ready to go this Saturday against a team Georgia Tech always gets up for. All of the pressure is on Virginia Tech here and I’m still not fully sold on the Hokie turnaround. Don’t be shocked if the home Tech steals this one.

Pick: Georgia Tech +200 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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