Arkansas vs. Florida Odds & Picks: Gators Tight End Kyle Pitts’ Injury Status Creates Value on Under
Courtney Culbreath/Collegiate Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Florida Gators quarterback Kyle Trask.
- The Florida Gators still have their eyes set on an SEC Championship Berth out of the East and are suitably heavy favorites vs. Arkansas on Saturday.
- The Razorbacks head to The Swamp without head coach Sam Pittman, who tested positive for COVID-19. How will Arkansas perform without its head coach?
- Below, you'll find Collin Wilson's full betting analysis, including updated odds and his picks for Saturday evening's SEC matchup between Florida and Arkansas.
Arkansas vs. Florida Odds
|Arkansas Odds||+17 [BET NOW]|
|Florida Odds||-17 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+525 / -770 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||62 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
My university is undefeated against the spread in 2020, which has this alum singing, “Oh Lord, it’s hard to be humble when you’re an Arkansas Razorback fan” daily. That tune is rambled universally by Razorbacks fans after victories in any sport, leading to high aspirations on the Hill in Fayetteville.
The biggest news on the Arkansas side is head coach Sam Pittman testing positive for COVID-19, which will keep the coach of the year candidate from traveling to The Swamp.
Can’t explain how much the well wishes from great friends and folks of Arkansas means to me. I feel fine. Hoping for a false positive test. Our staff is elite and will have our wonderful players ready this weekend. #gohogs #Appreciateyouall
— Coach Sam Pittman (@CoachSamPittman) November 9, 2020
Pittman is correct in saying the staff is elite. There is no reflection in the Arkansas power rating without Pittman because of coordinators Kendal Briles and Barry Odom. Both coaches are responsible for the game plan, execution and halftime adjustments.
If there’s anything you need to know about Pittman, it’s that the coach is widely popular in the recruiting world and with players on the roster.
Arkansas continues to cover despite deficiencies in every facet. The Razorbacks are outside of the top 100 in rush explosiveness, tackling and special teams. The most explosive player on offense has been Treylon Burks, who averages 6.4 yards after contact on rushing attempts.
Only three players in the country have as many rushing attempts and more yards after contact. Those numbers are even more impressive considering Burks’ primary position is wide receiver.
Treylon Burks, this is insane. pic.twitter.com/uSyVwybTnN
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 17, 2020
Will the Gators be able to survive the hangover of defeating Georgia for the first time since 2016? The biggest takeaway stat from the cocktail party was Florida finally showing up on third down, limiting the Bulldogs to two conversions in 13 attempts. A 4-1 Gators team is projected to win the SEC East with a remaining schedule of Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU.
MY GOD!!! #16 Lewis Cine CRACKED Kyle Pitts over the middle! Both were KO'd!!! Brutal! pic.twitter.com/24w6rDJrNo
— . (@FTBBurner11) November 7, 2020
Florida’s best weapon is tight end Kyle Pitts, who suffered a concussion after a brutal collision against Georgia. Quarterback Kyle Trask leaned on Pitts the most, as the tight end holds a team best in first downs, receiving yards and touchdowns. In 35 total targets this season, Pitts has yet to drop a pass or fumble the ball.
Dan Mullen said #Gators TE Kyle Pitts remains questionable for Arkansas game.
— Edgar Thompson (@osgators) November 11, 2020
The Florida defense had its best day against Georgia, but the question remains whether or not it can deliver the same level of play for a second week in a row. The Gators still rank outside the top 100 in tackling, coverage and Rushing Success Rate. Florida improved marginally to 85th in opponent third-down conversion rate following its game against Georgia.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The balance in this game hangs on the news of Pitts’ availability. Florida is still very much in the national-title picture, but a loss at any point does not hurt its chances to compete against Alabama for the SEC Championship.
The Action Network projection is dead on with the current market, but any steam on the Florida number with or without Pitts will require a small play on Arkansas leading up to kick.
Dan Mullen commented that the “mental toughness and mental attitudes” from Arkansas do not show up in the stat line. This is apparent with Arkansas, which ranks in the bottom half of almost every offensive statistical category.
If there is an angle on this game, it is the full-game under. The Pace Report projected a total of 58 points, with Florida running a tempo that is 88th in the country. The Gators would take a hit as a pass-first offense without Pitts, while the Arkansas defense is top 20 in coverage and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Pick: Total Under 62 or better