James Madison vs Georgia State Odds, Pick for Saturday

Find James Madison vs Georgia State odds, pick for Saturday below.

James Madison puts its perfect record on the line as it heads to Atlanta to take on an upstart Georgia State squad. The Dukes continue their march to repeat as “Kings of the East,” although the Panthers are the team that actually has a shot to compete in the Sun Belt title game.

This is a clash of strength on strength: Georgia State loves to pound the rock and James Madison has one of the best run defenses in the country, bar none.

The Dukes are favored on the road by 5.5 in this collision, and a total of 54.5 portends a lot of scoring. How should we play this Sun Belt clash?

Last year, James Madison saw its perfect season end on a road trip to the Peach State, when it fell to the Georgia Southern Eagles in a wild shootout. Curt Cignetti will look to avoid that same fate with his undefeated squad.

The Dukes are led by a dominant defensive line. Edge Jalen Green is the best pass rusher in the country; his 15.5 sacks clear the field by 3.5. Sophomore Mikail Kamara is no slouch either, with three forced fumbles and 5.5 sacks, and Jamree Kromah has also chipped in six sacks, a number that would lead many teams.

But the man that makes this defense tick is not stuffing the stat sheet. That’s senior nose guard James Carpenter, a destructive force who creates rush lanes for his teammates and keeps blockers off of JMU’s excellent linebackers. Carpenter is a war daddy; he keys the rush defense that is No. 1 in Success Rate Allowed.

The JMU defense has been susceptible to the big run plays. Old Dominion used extreme tempo and extreme splits to create a few big runs last week.

Georgia State has a good run game — based on explosive runs — but it's not very efficient. It profiles in metrics similarly to Troy’s rush attack, with an inefficient but high-volume lead back; Troy’s Kimani Vidal is third in the FBS in rushing and Georgia State’s Marcus Carroll is second.

But James Madison absolutely erased Troy’s run game. It held Vidal to only 27 yards on 11 carries. Georgia State doesn’t employ the same kind of extreme veer-and-shoot tactics as Old Dominion, and the Panthers will struggle with JMU’s dominant front.

The JMU offense hasn't been as good as it was last year, and the biggest difference has been the struggle of the running game. The Dukes rank 120th in EPA/play on the ground and are outside of the top 115 in FBS in both Success Rate on the ground and rushing explosives.

Quarterback Jordan McCloud and receiver Reggie Brown have kept the offense afloat; the passing attack ranks 10th in Success Rate, good for 51st in EPA/pass. This isn’t quite “complementary football” yet, but the offense has taken a big step back from last year’s excellent attack.

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After a veteran team failed to meet expectations in 2022, head coach Shawn Elliott entered this season with his name starting to appear on hot seat lists.

But the roster turned over heavily going into this year, with many graduations and a portal exodus.

But one returnee was star quarterback Darren Grainger, who's made a case as the best Georgia State player in the program’s short history. With his dual-threat abilities, and with Elliott’s track record of coordinating excellent running games, the Panthers have been solid on the ground.

Carroll is second in FBS with 1,060 yards and Grainger has 510 yards (before removing sack yardage) on 5.0 per tote.

The passing game is behind the ground game, with the 35th-best Success Rate. Robert Lewis has been a target hog, with 46 receptions for 658 yards, but this passing attack isn’t good enough to break JMU’s strong defense.

The defense has been struggling through the air, ranking 108th in EPA/Play. The run defense has been solid up front, ranking 19th in Success Rate against opposing rush attacks. JMU’s already toothless run game should struggle to find room.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how James Madison and Georgia State match up statistically:

James Madison Offense vs. Georgia State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	121	19
Line Yards	123	31
Pass Success	10	101
Havoc	99	93
Finishing Drives	101	57
Quality Drives	89	67

Georgia State Offense vs. James Madison Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	73	1
Line Yards	77	2
Pass Success	35	53
Havoc	60	1
Finishing Drives	59	12
Quality Drives	59	13

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	102	102
PFF Coverage	25	118
Special Teams SP+	18	67
Middle 8	60	131
Seconds per Play	27.7 (79)	24.9 (30)
Rush Rate	54.4% (50)	58.4% (20)

The pace shouldn’t be very fast in this one – JMU is near the bottom of FBS is seconds per play and Georgia State is middle of the pack.

Neither team will find much success on the ground, and I’m not sure either team’s passing attack is good enough to truly take advantage of the secondaries here.

54.5 points is too many in a game with JMU’s excellent defense, which has already dominated a rushing attack (Troy’s) that's very similar to Georgia State.