College Football Odds & Pick For Kent State vs. Bowling Green: MACtion Betting Value Lies With Over/Under
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin Crum (14).
- Mother Nature will make an appearance on Tuesday as Kent State and Bowling Green battle on Tuesday night MACtion.
- The makeup of both teams makes the under a serious possibility, and the forecasted wind makes it even more intriguing.
- Collin Wilson broke down the game and shares a betting pick below.
Kent State vs. Bowling Green Odds
|Kent State Odds||-20.5 [BET NOW]|
|Bowling Green Odds||+20.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-1250/+750 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||55.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET|
Kent State Golden Flashes
There were first-game mistakes for the Golden Flashes, who finished their first game with nine penalties for 78 yards in a victory over Eastern Michigan last week.
The end result of penalties and special teams left Kent State a -91 mark in hidden yards. The missed extra point by kicker Seth Phillis proved to be detrimental to any bettor with a -4.5 ticket on the home team. More importantly for head coach Sean Lewis, the Flashes were not very flashy in the opener.
Kent State put up just one explosive drive — defined as averaging more than 10-plus yards per play — out of 11 possessions. Only one pass and two runs went over 20 yards against Eastern Michigan. Success Rate was not an issue, particularly in standard downs, when Kent posted a rate 19% above the national average.
A tip of the cap must go to the Kent State defense that ranked second overall in the latest Havoc ratings. The Flashes dominated the line of scrimmage with 10 tackles for loss and a top rank in Line Yards. Defensive coordinator Tom Kaufman’s unit had just nine missed tackles combined in 67 plays.
Bowling Green Falcons
The Falcons continue to loom in the basement of the conference along with Akron, making their Dec. 5 game an official must-bet for gamblers.
There are plenty of issues for Bowling Green, but the focus should be around the passing game. Matt McDonald went 8-of-30 with two interceptions. No matter how you slice the stats, there was nothing positive to see in the 25% Success Rate on passing downs and an average of less than one point per trip inside the 40-yard line. One of the more amazing stats from the opening night of MACtion was Bowling Green’s rank of 14th in pass blocking, per Pro Football Focus.
This is arguably the worst throwing motion I’ve ever seen. I hate Bowling Green. pic.twitter.com/QCNDOAnEuA
— Ben (@BLBillings4) November 5, 2020
Pace of play should be a factor before laying a bet with Bowling Green. The Falcons came in with a seconds per play rank of fourth in FBS. Their average of 20.4 seconds was not a reflection of garbage time, as Bowling Green averaged 19 seconds per play in its first three drives that resulted in a punt, interception and fumble.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Action Network projection lands on at Kent State -15.5, much shorter than a market that is sure to steam through three touchdowns. Contrarian money is sure to pick up on Bowling Green above +21, but any investor must wonder how scoring will be generated by the Falcons.
Bowling Green made seven trips past the Toledo 40-yard line and left with a total of three points. The Falcons may lean into a rushing attack that ranked 50th in Success Rate, but Kent State’s domination in the trenches against Eastern Michigan does not bode well for them. If backing Bowling Green at an outlandish number is too uncomfortable, there’s a total to consider.
Per Sports Insights, crosswinds will be blowing in Doyt L. Perry Stadium from 17 to 23 mph with respect to stadium orientation. While Bowling Green has a light-speed tempo, it’s one of the more unsuccessful offenses in the nation.
Meanwhile, Kent State recorded only one explosive drive against Eastern Michigan. Those elements, along with the wind, make an under the play. Look for any first-half number above four touchdowns and any live full-game total around the key of 56.
Pick: First-Half Under 30 or better; Under 56 or better