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College Football Odds & Picks for Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas: Follow the Line Move on Thursday Night

College Football Odds & Picks for Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas: Follow the Line Move on Thursday Night article feature image

Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Gabriel Murphy

  • There is an overwhelming ticket vs. money discrepancy in Thursday's North Texas-Louisiana Tech matchup.
  • The Bulldogs haven't taken the field in more than a month, leaving a number of places in which the Mean Green can take advantage.
  • Check out Ace DeCardano's full betting preview with updated odds below.

Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas Odds

Louisiana Tech Odds +1.5 [BET NOW]
North Texas Odds -1.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline  -125/ +105 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 66 [BET NOW]
Time Thursday, 6 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds as of Wednesday evening and via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up.

According to our public betting figures, we’ve got a classic “Pros vs. Joes” matchup on Thursday night when the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs travel to Denton, Texas, to take on the North Texas Mean Green.

As of Wednesday afternoon, 25% of the tickets, yet 81% of the money, has been bet on North Texas. Let’s think about what this means.

Firstly, when these few tickets are resulting in this much money, it (obviously) means the people betting on North Texas are risking much more money per ticket. It follows that, more often than not, the people risking the bigger sums of money have a better idea about what they are betting. The theory is that siding with these people over the general public is a profitable strategy.

Hence, Pro’s (those betting a lot) vs. Joe’s (the general public).

Using our Bet Labs database, I can see that teams getting less than 50% of the ticket count, with a money percentage vs. ticket percentage difference of at least 25% are 25-14 on the season. This is an impressive 64.1% win percentage. That is strong.

However, I’m not really one to blindly follow anything. Let’s figure out the Pros’ thought process.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Louisiana Tech has been struggling with COVID-19 issues all season.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Laura, the Bulldogs had 38 players test positive.

This led to the cancellation of their season-opening game at Baylor.

The virus next wreaked havoc on the program throughout the entire month of November. First, North Texas postponed the game originally set for Nov. 7 due to its own COVID-19 issues.

The following week, it was actually Louisiana Tech that had to push back its game against Rice. Finally, both Louisiana-Monroe and Florida International had to cancel their games altogether due to a lack of healthy players available to take the field.

Louisiana Tech hasn’t played a football game since Oct. 31.

When the team has actually gotten on the field, it’s been a mixed bag. The Bulldogs began their campaign 3-1, with the only loss coming at BYU. They dropped two of three afterward and enter this contest at 4-3.

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Offensive struggles have been the culprit behind this slide.

LA Tech ranks above only Mississippi State and UMass in terms of yards per rush attempt (2.4). When this is the case, most teams hope to rely on the passing game. However, the Bulldogs’ passing attack ranks only 103rd in FBS in yards per pass attempt (6.2).

Louisiana Tech has used a two-quarterback system all year, and it just hasn’t found any rhythm, which is often the case.

Mix in a mediocre defense — 5.7 yards per play allowed, ranking 77th in FBS — and we start to get an idea why Pros might want to fade the Bulldogs.

North Texas Mean Green

While Louisiana Tech can’t move the ball, the North Texas defense has spent the season unable to stop any team that isn’t Rice. Interestingly enough, though, this was a Rice team on Nov. 21 that itself had a multi-week layoff due to opposing COVID-19 cancellations.

It was simply a lack of execution that cost the Owls that day. The Green defense isn’t so Mean.

In fact, North Texas is second-worst in all of FBS in terms of total yards allowed per game (529.7). This’s because it’s equally poor at stopping the run (6.0 yards per rush attempt against ranks 124th) and the pass (8.9 yards per pass attempt against ranks 120th).

North Texas looks to make up for this lack of defense with a two-QB system of its own. This is more of the classic college pocket passer/dual-threat timeshare, and it has been fairly effective.

No matter who is behind center, North Texas is most comfortable leaning on the ground game. A rushing attack that is both 16th in FBS in rush yards per game (228.0) and 15th in yards per rush attempt (5.5) should march up and down the field against a leaky, rusty Bulldog defense.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The big money is on North Texas, and I believe we found the angle: A Louisiana Tech team that already has trouble stopping the run hasn’t seen live action for a month.

Additionally, both the Bulldogs’ offensive execution and mindset has to be a major concern.

Follow the system. Take the Mean Green.

Pick: North Texas -1.5 (up to -2.5).

[Bet North Texas now at PointsBet risk-free up to $250]

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