Missouri vs. Georgia Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under (November 6)

Missouri vs. Georgia Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under (November 6) article feature image
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Icon Sportswire/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Davis

  • Updated odds have the Georgia Bulldogs as 39.5-point favorites when they take on the Missouri Tigers.
  • The Bulldogs have the best defense in the country, which should play a role in Saturday's over/under.
  • Check out Doug Ziefel's breakdown for the game below, including odds and picks based on his analysis.

Editor’s Note: It was announced that Missouri quarterback Connor Bazelak will miss Saturday’s game against Georgia.

Missouri vs. Georgia Odds

Missouri Odds +39.5
Georgia Odds -39.5
Moneyline N/A
Over/Under 60.5
Time Saturday, Noon ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via Fox Bet

Georgia’s road to the College Football Playoff continues as it hosts Missouri on Saturday. Each of these programs are coming off a conference win, but this SEC matchup appears to be quite the mismatch.

The Tigers put on an offensive display last week as they ran over Vanderbilt. This offense possesses the SEC leader in all-purpose yards, Tyler Badie.

“Tyler Badie is a great player,” Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz said about Badie’s effort Saturday. “I have been saying it for a long time. He is the best player nobody is talking about. He is really the engine that drives us. He has a big heart. He is a competitor. He wants to win. I want to win. This team wants to win.”

Badie has been impressive, but can he break through the vaunted Georgia defense?

Georgia got to stay home this week after it dominated “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” against Florida. This win had a little extra meaning to the Bulldogs and their returning players as they wanted to avenge last year’s performance.

“It was real personal,” linebacker Nolan Smith said after the win over Florida.

After such an important victory, will the Bulldogs overlook Missouri this week in a letdown spot?


Missouri Tigers

Tigers’ Key is on the Ground

Missouri may only run the ball 45 percent of the time, but having the run game established has been a pattern in each of its wins this season.

Drinkwitz gave high praise and drew out a game plan for the Georgia defense. He plans to lean on the run game to avoid the heavy pass rush. He has a great back to lean on for this matchup.

Badie has been getting it done on the ground and through the air. His talents were on full display against the Commodores, as he rushed for 254 yards and scored twice while also catching eight passes.

If the ground game is established, that could open things up for quarterback Connor Bazelak, who has been nothing but consistent all season. He’s completing 68 percent of his passes and holds a 68.1 QBR, which is 44th in the nation.

While the Bulldogs’ defense may seem insurmountable, the Tigers have the pieces to put up points.


Tigers Struggling to Contain the Run

Missouri may have one of the better scoring offenses in the country, but its defense gives up six more points on average than its offense scores. The issues stem from the Tigers’ inability to stop the run.

The Tigers give up six yards per rush and over 282 yards per game. That is good for 126th and 129th, respectively. The Bulldogs already rush at a 62 percent rate and that will likely tick up in this matchup.

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Georgia Bulldogs

Quarterback Confusion Surrounds Bulldogs

Coming into last week’s matchup with Georgia, incumbent starter JT Daniels was available and was healthy enough to play, according to head coach Kirby Smart.

However, Smart decided to roll out Stetson Bennett, who has filled in admirably while Daniels has been out. Many assumed Daniels was going to see the field, but when he did not, it was met with much scrutiny.

Unfortunately for Bennett, he had his worst performance of the season, as he only completed 53 percent of passes and had two of his throws go to the Gators.

Daniels will now be more than rested and should be back on the field, which will make the Bulldogs’ offense more dynamic.


Georgia Defense Has Some Dogs

The Bulldogs’ defense has been in a league of its own this year. The unit allows only 6.6 points per game and 3.6 yards per play, and is ranked first in the country.

While the team numbers are impressive, the individual performances are even more impressive:

Georgia has 11 defenders with a 75+ grade…

No other team has more than 6 pic.twitter.com/55HOW8scDE

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 3, 2021

In what has become a theme in Georgia games, the defense will once again tremendously outrank the opposing offense. The Tigers do have some playmakers, but the defense will be more than capable of shutting them down.


Missouri vs. Georgia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Georgia match up statistically:

Missouri Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 78 4
Line Yards 104 14
Pass Success 20 2
Pass Blocking** 19 10
Big Play 78 6
Havoc 41 17
Finishing Drives 28 1
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Georgia Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 56 127
Line Yards 28 126
Pass Success 45 83
Pass Blocking** 16 42
Big Play 59 113
Havoc 10 73
Finishing Drives 38 124
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 104 1
Coverage 69 1
Middle 8 26 4
SP+ Special Teams 2 33
Plays per Minute 37 118
Rush Rate 45.3% (120) 62.7% (13)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Missouri vs. Georgia Betting Pick

The spread in this game is high, to say the least, and it is a tough number to lay as this game could become a blowout and leave the backdoor open.

With both teams running the ball and points being at a premium for Missouri, I prefer to target the total.

Our Action PRO Projections have this total at 55, which is great value at the current number. Georgia will get its points but will take time off the clock while doing so.

This game stays under.

Pick: Under 59.5 (Play to 58)

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