Tennessee vs. Arkansas Odds & Pick: Value on Over/Under as Volunteers Travel to Fayetteville
Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarrett Guarantano.
- The Tennessee Volunteers will hit the road to Fayetteville on Saturday to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in an SEC matchup.
- Sam Pittman has become a household name with his surprise season at the helm of the Arkansas program.
- Collin Wilson breaks down the game below and shares a betting pick with updated odds.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Odds
|Tennessee Odds||-1 [BET NOW]|
|Arkansas Odds||+1 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-120 / +100 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||52.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Volunteers entered halftime up 21-17 against Georgia and was feeling good about the state of the program. But there has been nothing positive for Tennessee over the past 10 quarters with three losses and eight turnovers.
Now, rumors persist of a demotion of offensive coordinator Jim Chaney for former national champion quarterback Tee Martin. Tennessee is outside the top 75 in Offensive Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
The defensive side of the ball had produced equally disappointing numbers. Jeremy Pruitt, a former defensive coordinator for Alabama, has overseen a fall to 91st in Opponent Passing Success Rate. Tackling continues to be an issue as the Volunteers rank 73rd in Pro Football Focus grading. If there’s a positive, the defensive trench is 32nd in Line Yards after games against Georgia and Alabama. Kivon Bennett leads the team in quarterback hurries and is second in defensive stops.
Coach Pruitt talked about needing physical DL play heading into USC. Watch Kivon Bennett bench press this TE 4 yards into the backfield and force the RB to bounce for no gain.
Bennett did a lot of great/disruptive things that didn't necessarily show up on the stat sheet. pic.twitter.com/JOdqLKUhti
— Austin Burlage (@Power_T_Tape) September 29, 2020
How much has Arkansas become the darling of the gambling community? Of any FBS team to play three games, the Razorbacks are the only squad to cover in every single game at 5-0 against the number.
Sam Pittman has become a household name and is widely respected in the coaching community after years of serving as an offensive line coach and top recruiter at Georgia and Arkansas.
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) October 21, 2020
Arkansas continues to cover games thanks to healthy numbers in pass defense. The Razorbacks are second in limiting opponent pass explosiveness. Defensive coordinator Barry Odom did a masterful job in scheming against the air raid of Mississippi State and the spread tempo of Ole Miss. Arkansas ranks in the top 25 in Defensive Finishing Drives while PFF grades the Hogs as 13th in coverage.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Will either team be able to convert a third down?
Arkansas’ rank of 96th and Tennessee’s rank of 107th could be a clue that this game could be a punt fest. There are concerns in the advanced numbers when supporting Arkansas on both offense and defense.
Arkansas grades dead last by PFF in tackling despite a high rank in coverage. There’s plenty of hustle on the defense, but ranks 93rd in Line Yards and 85th in Sack Rate indicate there is a path for Tennessee to find offensive success.
The Razorbacks are not filling the box score on the offensive side of the ball this season, as they rank 100th in rush explosiveness. Rushing attempts from Trelon Smith and Rakeem Boyd average less than 2.5 yards after contact. The one positive is that wide receiver Treylon Burks averages 6.8 yards after contact and 14.3 YACs per catch.
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 1, 2020
The Action Network Pace Report calls for a total of 49 despite both teams ranking top-30 in seconds per play.
As noted, these teams have been subpar in third downs and lack any explosive element in the pass game. Each team ranks outside the top 70 in Finishing Drives, as scoring opportunities may not produce enough points.
Arkansas may continue its run of covers, but it should come in a low-scoring game filled with punts.
Pick: Under 52.5 or better