Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about the lights shining on the gridiron before a massive Saturday slate that features wall-to-wall action. That's what we have tonight.
We have three games scheduled for Friday night's slate: Florida State vs. Virginia in the ACC, TCU vs. Arizona State in the Big 12 and Houston vs. Oregon State in a Big 12/Pac-2 battle.
Our college football writers broke down all three games and came through with a pick for each, so let's take a look at our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the games on Friday, Sept. 26.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Florida State vs Virginia Pick
By John Feltman
The Florida State Seminoles take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, Va. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida State is favored by -7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. The total is set at 60 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Virginia prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 26.
Florida State Seminoles
It appears that the Seminoles avoided a scare last Saturday when starting quarterback Thomas Castellanos went down with an ankle injury in their victory over Kent State. Castellanos has been limited at practice but will likely suit up against Virginia.
The Noles' offense has been sensational thus far, as Florida State has continued to put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard after its season opener against Alabama.
The Noles rank in the top 10 in the following offensive metrics: EPA/Pass and Rush, Available yard %, Late Down Success Rate and Early Down EPA/Play. They've also been extremely explosive and have handled business in the red zone.
The Noles rank 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives entering the matchup.
It's a decent matchup considering the Hoos have struggled against the run and on early downs. Virginia has done a decent job of preventing explosive plays.
The most significant metric that stuck out to me was that the Noles are 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives, whereas Virginia's defense has struggled mightily in that area.
The Noles are 18th in Havoc Allowed, so their offensive line has done a solid job thus far. The numbers are flawed based on their soft schedule in recent weeks, but the critical data point is the Alabama matchup from Week 1.
They've also been outstanding defensively. The Noles are in the top 25 in several defensive categories, including EPA/Pass and Rush Allowed per game.
They're also 18th in Defensive Havoc, but they'll be tested against a decent Virginia offensive line. I'd usually lean toward laying it with the Noles on the road, given that they've proven enough against Alabama. But their offense won't be the same, given Castellanos's uncertainty.
Virginia Cavaliers
The Virginia Cavaliers enter Friday night's contest against Florida State as seven-point underdogs, but they fit the mold of a team that can pull off the upset.
Quarterback Chandler Morris has been one of my favorites in the Group of 5 in the last several years, and he's proven that he can handle the competition thus far.
Morris enters the matchup completing 71% of his passes with eight touchdowns and an interception. He also has over 1,000 passing yards through four games.
Their offense has been sensational through four games, and they'll get their first actual test of the season against the Noles' defense. The Hoos are in the top 30 in EPA/Pass/Rush and available yards.
Running back J'Mari Taylor is averaging over six yards per catch and has six touchdowns on the season. The Virginia offense has plenty of explosiveness, which will play a significant role here.
However, concerns on the defensive side of the ball could cost the Hoos. They don't generate much havoc, and they've allowed many explosive plays thus far.
Castellanos, who is entering the matchup with an injury concern, should help them a bit here, but they need to clean things up to win the game. The defensive line has produced an above-average stuff rate, but they're still well below the national average in EPA/Rush Allowed.
There are many concerns defensively, but I think the offense is good enough to keep up in a shootout.
Florida State vs Virginia Prediction
I love Virginia here at home, catching seven points. The defensive issues are concerning, but its explosive offense is one that the Noles have yet to face.
Considering we're getting a touchdown at home, we can cash this in many ways, especially if they're only down two scores late.
I definitely think Florida State is much improved from last season, but with Castellanos' injury concern, there's a lot more uncertainty that this could end up being a close game.
Morris and Co. will deliver a backdoor score late if the Hoos happen to be trailing. I'll follow the market and sharp money here and fade the public.
Pick: Virginia +7 or Better
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TCU vs Arizona State Pick
The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, Arizona. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
Arizona State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here’s my TCU vs. Arizona State prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 26.
TCU Horned Frogs
A monster game in the Big 12 takes place on Friday: two of the top three favorites to win the Big 12 Championship square off.
TCU is off to a 3-0 start and coming off a 35-24 win over SMU in the Iron Skillet. The Horned Frogs have an electric offense and have climbed up to No. 24 in the AP Poll.
Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 3,949 yards with 27 touchdowns last season and currently leads the country with 333.3 passing yards per game. He has already tossed 11 touchdowns while cutting down his turnover-worthy play rate. Hoover is capable of carving up any defense and is one of the best signal callers in the nation.
Even after losing a trio of talented receivers in JP Richardson, Savion Williams, and 1,000-yard receiver Jack Bech, the Frogs’ passing attack has not missed a beat.
Eric McAlister is a stud and is averaging over 100 yards per game, while Jordan Dwyer is a sure-handed target. McAlister torched SMU for 254 yards and three touchdowns last week.
TCU does not look to run the ball a ton, but the Frogs have been much more effective when they do hand it off.
Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes is out with an injury again after missing last week, but Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne looked solid against SMU. Battle averaged 8.6 yards per carry. The Frogs just need to run the ball often enough to keep the defense honest.
We saw the defense take a step forward last season in the first year under defensive coordinator Andy Avalos.
The defense transitioned from being a liability to a middle-of-the-pack unit. TCU was especially strong at defending the pass, thanks to a terrific secondary.
Bud Clark and Jamel Johnson make up an elite safety duo on the back end of this defense. They have already combined for three interceptions and will be even more critical in this game with cornerback Avery Helm out with an injury.
In the middle of the field is a terrific linebacker corps of Namdi Obiazor and Kaleb Elarms-Orr, along with star Devean Deal on the edge.
TCU struggled to create Havoc last season, but that has not been an issue this year, as the Frogs rank third nationally in that stat.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Coming off a magical run to a Big 12 Championship and College Football Playoff appearance, Arizona State had a massive target on its back after catching teams off guard last season.
The Sun Devils lost a heartbreaker to Mississippi State in Week 2, but they have rebounded nicely with wins over Texas State and Baylor.
The biggest question for the Sun Devils entering the season was how they would replace star running back Cam Skattebo.
So far, the answer has been to feed Jordyn Tyson. Last year’s leading receiver put up over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns before suffering a season-ending injury in the regular season finale.
Through three games, Tyson has hauled in 31 catches for 357 yards and five touchdowns. He has 47.7% of the Sun Devils' receiving yards this season and five of quarterback Sam Leavitt’s six touchdown passes.
Coming into the season, Leavitt was being talked about as a possible first-round draft pick, but he has not looked the part so far. He has really struggled, except for finding Tyson.
Leavitt has six touchdowns to three interceptions and already has more turnover-worthy plays than he did all of last season. He ranks 13th among Big 12 quarterbacks in passing yards per game.
Leavitt has upped his rushing output this year, though, averaging 54.8 yards per game. He already has four rushing scores. Running back Raleek Brown has been effective trying to replace Skattebo, and he is averaging 93 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry.
The Arizona State offense got all the attention last year, but the defense was the driving force of its magical run.
The Sun Devils improved as the season progressed and had the best run defense in the Big 12. Nine starters returned on defense, but they have not been as stout this year.
The run defense remains strong, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, but the pass defense has been somewhat leaky.
Arizona State has allowed eight passing touchdowns on the year, the most in the Big 12, which is problematic against this TCU offense. Making matters worse, starting defensive backs Xavion Alford and Montana Warren are both out for this game.
Linebackers Keyshaun Elliott and Jordan Cook are the key to this defense. They are tackling machines against the run, and also rank first and second on the team in sacks.
Edge rusher Clayton Smith is extremely important to this game, as he leads the Sun Devils in quarterback pressures and will need to get after Hoover on Friday.
TCU vs Arizona State Prediction
These two teams have not met since 1975, and the winner on Friday night will have a massive advantage in the Big 12 Championship game race.
TCU has plenty of experience playing on Fridays, but this will mark its first trip to Arizona since a 2022 CFP win over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.
While Arizona State made its way to the conference championship last year, two main areas held TCU back. The Frogs struggled to run the ball effectively, and they couldn’t stop the run.
They are never going to put up a ton of yards due to lack of volume, but the Horned Frogs are averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the ground this season, up from just 3.7 last year. That difference is all they need to help keep defenses honest.
Hoover and the TCU passing attack have been tremendous this season. Hoover can make any throw on the field and has reduced his turnover-worthy play rate. He has been excellent when kept clean, and this is a great matchup for him.
Arizona State ranks 76th nationally in Pressure rate, and the Horned Frogs' offensive line has done a terrific job giving Hoover time to throw. TCU ranks top 10 in preventing Havoc, and Hoover has been sacked just twice.
If Hoover has a clean pocket, he and McAlister will be able to pick apart this Sun Devils defense that has been pitiful at defending the pass. ASU’s eight passing touchdowns allowed are the most in the Big 12, and the Devils rank 72nd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Situationally, Arizona State has the advantage, with TCU heading out West on a short week following an emotional win in the final meeting against its biggest rival. But this line is overcompensating for that a bit.
TCU has been the better team this season, and even if you give the Sun Devils a slight extra home-field advantage bump for the situation, I still make the Horned Frogs a slight favorite.
Pick: TCU +3
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Houston vs Oregon State Pick
By Road To CFB
The Houston Cougars take on the Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis, OR. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Houston is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -525. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my Houston vs. Oregon State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 26.
Houston Cougars
It’s been a pretty good start for Houston in 2025. The Cougars are 3-0 straight up and against the spread, with a victory over Colorado while holding the other two teams to nine combined points.
But there could be some trouble on the horizon, as Houston’s offensive line is dealing with a rash of injuries. Four of five starters sat out its last game against the Buffs – a problem that plagued quarterback Conner Weigman, who was pressured 17 times.
Left tackle David Ndukwe suffered a dislocated knee cap and is out for the season. However, the three other missing starters are back at practice after the bye and are expected to be a go. Keep an eye on the latest reports and snap counts, plus the potential for re-injury.
Weigman has largely kept the ball out of harm’s way and has avoided taking several sacks with excellent elusiveness in the backfield. But so far, he’s lived and died by the deep ball.
Shiel Wood or no Shiel Wood, Houston’s defense has been downright excellent through three games. Outside of a few explosive plays against Colorado, Houston hasn’t given much of anything up in any facet of the game.
Defensive lineman Khalil Laufau is turning in All-America numbers early, with six QB pressures and seven run stops. He grades out as the Big 12’s second-best among defensive tackles and inside the top 15 nationally (per PFF).
Defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong is having a true resurgence after being removed from a job at Florida that was likely too intense for the young coach.
Perhaps a more talented offense will come around and change the narrative, but that doesn’t appear to be likely in Week 5.
Oregon State Beavers
Despite a 5-7 record, it seemed as though Oregon State was bottoming out in 2024. And then 2025 began and the Beavers found a new meaning for “bottoming out.”
Oregon State is 0-4 straight up and ATS this season, failing to meet spread expectations by nearly a full touchdown so far this year.
Nothing is going right on offense or defense, and this team is a serious candidate for a midseason coaching change. Even the players appear to be frustrated with the coaching staff on the sidelines.
Three of the losses can be excused — Oregon and Texas Tech may be top-10 teams nationally and Cal surprised with its young quarterback in Week 1 — but a loss to Fresno State in Week 2 was downright embarrassing.
The Beavers’ two best weapons — running back Anthony Hankerson and receiver Trent Walker — are both inefficient and ineffective in a bad offensive system.
Nobody can get much going behind an offensive line dealing with reshuffling due to injury and performance.
Its best piece — guard Tyler Voltin — hasn’t played this year and four players have played multiple positions. It’s a unit with no consistency, no depth and one that's missing high-end talent.
Defensively, Oregon State has had no resistance for two years running — a significant issue for defensive coordinator-turned-head coach Trent Bray, who took back the defensive play calling this year.
The defense gives up a ton of yards on the ground and early in drives, setting the entire unit up for failure quickly.
It’s a dire situation in Corvallis and with so much change in the horizon — particularly, with the reconstruction of the Pac-12 — it’s not farfetched to believe Oregon State makes another change with it.
Houston vs Oregon State Prediction
Spotting Houston 10.5 points on the road wasn’t enough in the eyes of early line movers. The Cougars jumped from -10.5 to -13.5 — and it's growing by Tuesday afternoon.
Oregon State comes in with a rest disadvantage after two physical blowouts. Although the Beavs hung with rival Oregon early, the team “let go of the rope,” according to Bray, and Oregon scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives in the second and third quarters to slam the door shut.
There’s no end in sight for Oregon State, either. Its first bye week doesn’t come until Week 9, the latest in the country. This is the middle of an absolute slog against an opponent that comes off an extra week of rest — home or not.
Willie Fritz is a coach with twice as many covers as not as a road favorite in his coaching career (14-7 ATS). He knows how to prepare a team to hit the road, and Houston is a squad very much in contention for a surprise season and a high bowl spot.
With some big games on the horizon (Texas Tech comes to Houston next week), expect Fritz to use this as a tune-up game and not allow for a lookahead spot.
It’s tough to identify the quit spot for a team (or whether or not a team will even quit), but with no reprieve in sight, a short week for Oregon State off a huge loss to a rival and the circumstances surrounding the Beavs, this game could get ugly quickly.
I anticipate Houston comes out of the gate hot — something the Cougs haven't done consistently and are likely to address during the bye — and clean up special teams gaffes.
Pick: Houston 1H -6.5
