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National Championship Odds: Biggest Winners and Losers from Week 1

Sep 06, 2018 9:10 PM EDT
  • Oddsmakers have adjusted their National Championship odds following Week 1.
  • Auburn comes away as the biggest winner, while Michigan is the week's biggest loser.

It’s only been one week, but the college football landscape has changed significantly. We now know more about each team than we did a week ago — at least we think we do — and so do oddsmakers.

Based on each teams’ performance in the previous week, oddsmakers adjust all of their futures lines, and of course, that includes odds to win the National Championship.

With that, here are the biggest winners and losers following Week 1.

Winners

Auburn: +2000 to +800 (4.76% to 11.11% implied probability)

Week 1 vs. Washington: Won 21-16

The biggest winner of the weekend, Auburn, saw its implied probability more than double with its win over Washington. At +800, the Tigers are now tied with Georgia for the second-most likely SEC team to win it all this year.

Notre Dame: +3000 to +1500 (3.23% to 6.25% implied probability)

Week 1 vs. Michigan: Won 24-17

Week 1 was arguably Notre Dame’s toughest 2018 obstacle, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that its victory over Michigan had a significant impact on the team’s title odds.

LSU: +8000 to +5000 (1.23% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 1 vs. Miami: Won 33-17

LSU wasn’t given much of a chance heading into the year. The Tigers are still a longshot, but because of how far back their odds were, they’re one of the biggest winners after knocking off No. 8 Miami.

Losers

Michigan: +1000 to +2500 (9.09% to 3.85% implied probability)

Week 1 at Notre Dame: Lost 24-17

You had to see this one coming. The Wolverines have now lost 17 straight games on the road against ranked opponents (I’m sure you haven’t heard that anywhere yet), and will probably have to win out to make the playoff, making them Week 1’s biggest loser.

Miami: +3000 to +5000 (3.23% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 1 vs. LSU: Lost 33-17

The U is back to being not back. Including last season, the Canes are now on a four-game losing streak, and have averaged just 14.5 points per game over that stretch.

Florida State: +4000 to +10000 (0.99% to 2.44%)

Week 1 vs. Virginia Tech: Lost 24-3

Scoring three points as a seven-point home favorite isn’t the best recipe for winning championships. As a result of their embarrassing performance, the ‘Noles saw their implied odds of winning this year’s title dip to less than 1%.

Credit:

Sep 1, 2018; Atlanta, GA, USA; Auburn Tigers players run onto the field before their game against the Washington Huskies at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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