The Illinois State Redbirds take on the Montana State Bobcats in the 2026 FCS National Championship in Nashville, Tennessee, on Monday, Jan. 5. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Montana State is favored by 10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. Illinois State, meanwhile, enters as a +10 underdog and is +320 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
This is a fascinating matchup between one of the cornerstone FCS powers in recent memory in Montana State and an Illinois State team that's still wearing the glass slipper in these FCS Playoffs.
The Bobcats look to avenge a loss in last season's FCS National Championship game, and Illinois State seeks to go from being one of the last four teams in the field to national champion.
Here’s our Illinois State vs. Montana State prediction and college football picks for Monday, January 5.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Montana State Bobcats Prediction, Picks
- Illinois State vs. Montana State Pick: Over 56.5
My Montana State vs. Illinois State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Illinois State vs Montana State Odds, Lines, Spread
| Illinois State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +340 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -450 |
- Illinois State vs Montana State Spread: Montana State -10.5, Illinois State +10.5
- Illinois State vs Montana State Over/Under: 57.5 Total Points
- Illinois State vs Montana State Moneyline: Illinois State ML +340, Montana State ML -450
Illinois State vs Montana State NCAAF Preview
Illinois State Redbirds
The Redbirds are certainly giving off Cinderella vibes like we might experience in the NCAA Basketball Tournament. When the regular season ended, Illinois State was one of the last teams to secure its spot in these 24-team FCS Playoffs.
A blowout loss to conclude the regular season against Missouri Valley league foe Southern Illinois made a seeded playoff berth seem unlikely and resulted in a much tougher draw for Illinois State, which included four straight road games.
The Redbirds went to work in the opening round against Southeastern Louisiana, and the defense showed up in such a big way in this contest. SELA recorded just 321 total yards and converted just 6-of-15 on third down, as Illinois State forced four sacks and four interceptions, which completely thwarted any scoring opportunities for the Lions.
In the second round, Illinois State was set up in a rematch of a prior regular-season matchup with defending FCS national champion and flagship power program North Dakota State.
The Bison don't lose at home in the playoffs. That was the sentiment in the betting market, as Illinois State was a 26.5-point underdog.
This was the most puzzling and stunning performance of these FCS Playoffs and, without hyperbole, one of the most shocking results in the history of FCS football.
Illinois State surrendered a 78-yard touchdown pass to Bryce Lance on the Bison’s first play of the game. The Birds were down, 14-0, halfway through the first quarter after a punt return touchdown by Jackson Williams.
Illinois State quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse threw five interceptions. The blowout was in full effect — or was it?
The Redbirds defense rallied the troops and consistently had answers for everything NDSU wanted to do offensively, as the Bison would only rack up 101 total yards after that explosive touchdown to open the game.
Illinois State chipped away, but even so, found itself down two scores with three minutes to play. Rittenhouse threw a touchdown to Daniel Sobkowicz to cut the deficit to 28-21, and Illinois State forced a turnover with under two minutes to play to set itself up in the red zone.
Another Sobkowicz touchdown was set to tie the game with one minute remaining, until the Birds did the unthinkable and went for a two-point conversion and the win. Truly a stunning performance.
Illinois State had another tough road assignment in their next game, a trip to Davis, California, to take on the high-flying Aggies, who obtained a seeded draw and easily dispatched Rhode Island in their playoff opener.
The underdog Redbirds found themselves a bit shellshocked early, as the Aggies scored 10 points in the first three minutes of this game. However, Illinois State settled down and completely dominated the rest of the way.
After being down, 10-7, Illinois State scored five of the next six touchdowns and completely dominated the line of scrimmage with its defensive front seven. A couple of garbage-time touchdowns made the score appear closer, but this was a Redbird beatdown.
Four road games in four weeks.
Illinois State was then set to take on another FCS darling in Villanova, which was stating a claim for its own Cinderella story. This one wasn’t nearly as close as anticipated, however, as Illinois State dominated the time of possession and led, 30-6, in the fourth quarter.
Villanova didn't score a touchdown until a Pat McQuaide touchdown pass with three minutes left cut the lead to 30-14. Illinois State held Villanova to just three explosive pass plays and very minimal production on the ground while punching its ticket to Nashville.
The Redbirds completed their epic run to the national title game by defeating four teams in four weeks, all on the road.
Montana State Bobcats
The Bobcats cruised through their conference schedule in Big Sky play after early-season losses against Oregon and South Dakota State left them at 0-2 and possibly questioning if this team was good enough to go on a deep run.
Montana State swept its conference slate, capped off with a road victory in the “Brawl of the Wild” against Montana. It claimed the Big Sky regular-season title, earning a seeded draw in the FCS Playoffs, which included a coveted first-round bye.
The Bobcats had a significant talent and rest advantage over their first-round opponent, Yale, which came in off a memorable comeback against Youngstown State in a game it trailed by four touchdowns in the second half.
The Bobs looked sluggish for a good majority of the way, and Yale had chances to actually win the game outright despite being a 25-point underdog.
Montana State then defeated Southland foe Stephen F. Austin in the quarterfinal round by a convincing 44-28 score on a Friday night at home.
We saw SFA throw a few punches in this game, as quarterback Sam Vidlak gave his team numerous chances to score in the first half.
Ultimately, three drives that crossed midfield resulted in zero points, and the Bobcats built a 24-0 lead before SFA scored in the closing seconds of the first half. SFA made a late push to make this game close before MSU used its explosive power run game to close the door on a potential comeback.
Finally, we saw “Brawl of the Wild 2.0” in an epic game between Montana and Montana State, which was much closer than the final score would reflect.
Both teams threw haymakers, as MSU raced out to a 13-0 first-quarter lead before Montana scored 16 points in the second quarter. The Griz opened the scoring in the third and actually held a 23-20 road lead before the Bobcats put together three consecutive scoring drives while capitalizing on turnovers and Griz mistakes.
The performance was impressive given the circumstances and opponent. This Montana State team is a worthy National Championship contender that's buttoned up in all three phases of the game.
Illinois State vs Montana State Matchup Analysis
Now that we know the path each of these two teams took to get here, let's break down the matchup.
We wanted to dive deep into these rosters to give a solid idea of what each unit is equipped with.
Illinois State vs Montana State Quarterback Analysis
You don’t make the FCS National Championship without elite quarterback play.
Montana State junior Justin Lamson, who came in via Stanford (and nearly went to Bowling Green instead), accounted for 38 touchdowns and over 3,500 yards this season.
He was the catalyst behind both of Montana State’s last two playoff wins, though his usage on the ground has taken a back seat to his arm.
Senior Tommy Rittenhouse was extremely efficient this year, though he may best be known for his five interceptions thrown in the historic upset over North Dakota State two rounds ago (in fact, he only threw three interceptions during the regular season).
Rittenhouse is more of a passing threat, though he does his best work with his legs around the goal line.
Both quarterbacks are exceptional. Both have shown up when the game matters most in the playoffs. Ultimately, neither team has the decided advantage under center.
Advantage: Even
Illinois State WRs vs Montana State DBs Breakdown
Illinois State senior Daniel Sobkowicz stands 6-foot-3 and is one of the most formidable receivers in the FCS. He logged 31 contested catches and is credited with just four drops all year. The all-league selection finished with over 1,000 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, counterparts Luke Mailander (608 yards) and Dylan Lord (547 yards) keep secondaries honest.
Montana State junior safety Caden Dowler, brother of MSU wide receiver Taco Dowler, earned FCS All-America honors and was named the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year.
However, he suffered an arm injury in the semifinal against Montana, and his status for this game is unclear. The Bobcats start two freshmen at cornerback in Seth Johnson and Carson Williams. Both of them are pesky and physical.
Sobkowicz is a legitimate problem. He's the best player in these units who has been confirmed as active.
Advantage: Illinois State
Montana State WRs vs Illinois State DBs Breakdown
Montana State Taco Dowler is among the most dangerous receivers with the football in his hands in the country. The junior racked up 914 yards and six touchdowns this season, both leading Montana State.
Two others contribute to the effort: freshmen Dane Steel (460 yards) and Jabez Woods (337 yards). Tight end Rocky Lencioni (also a freshman) also has six touchdowns on 18 receptions.
Dowler is the clear alpha here. The Bobcats' offensive system is RPO-based and utilizes tight ends and running backs quite a bit.
Senior Shadwel Nkuba II earned all-conference honors for Illinois State after transferring from Louisiana. Teams prefer to go after senior Cam Wilson, who has 16 forced incompletions and two picks on the year. Wilson played an exceptional game against NDSU with three pass breakups.
Montana State has the best individual player among these groups. Better passing attacks found no shortage of success against this secondary, as UC Davis QB Caden Pinnick threw for 402 yards and two Aggie receivers went for 99-plus.
Advantage: Montana State
Illinois State RBs vs Montana State LBs Breakdown
Senior Victor Dawson has stepped into a massive role through Illinois State’s playoff run. Over 500 of his 1,200 rushing yards on the season came in the last four games, and he has gone for at least 135 yards in each of the last three games.
Dawson saw an increase in workload when all-conference back Wenkers Wright went down with a broken collarbone against Southeastern Louisiana. Seth Glatz is now the second man, and he rushed for 85 yards and a pair of scores against UC Davis.
Montana State sophomore linebacker Cole Taylor earned second-team All-Big Sky honors this season behind 92 total tackles and 37 run stops. Sophomore Bryce Grebe adds 29 run stops.
Although Taylor and Grebe are young, Montana State’s defense ranks 14th in the country in rushing defense. The defensive line certainly helps them along, but discipline from the second level is what defines this defense.
Advantage: Montana State
Montana State RBs vs Illinois State LBs Breakdown
Montana State’s offensive system is legendary for its rushing prowess, but it does require talent at running back — talent it has with a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in senior Julius Davis and sophomore Adam Jones (15 touchdowns).
The backfield was so crowded, it forced Scottre Humphrey — who rushed for nearly 1,400 yards last year — to transfer to New Mexico.
On the other side, Illinois State junior linebacker Tye Niekamp earned FCS All-America honors and was named the Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year. He stands 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds and presents a real problem for opposing offenses.
APEX Patrick Bauer is a versatile run defender, and Mason Kaplan picked off two passes against Southeastern Louisiana in the playoffs.
Rarely will the Bobcats not have the talent advantage in the run game. Jones and Davis are as good a one-two punch as you’ll find. We could include Lamson’s 850 yards and 14 touchdowns here if you’re still on the fence.
Advantage: Montana State
Illinois State OL vs Montana State DL Breakdown
Illinois State’s offensive line has done a good job both (a) creating rushing lanes for Dawon and (b) keeping Rittenhouse upright.
In the last three rounds, Rittenhouse hasn't been sacked more than once in a game.
Senior Jake Pope, who stands 6-foot-7 and 300 pounds, was named first team All-Missouri Valley this season, while senior Landon Woodard landed on the second team.
The all-conference accolades continue for Montana State, too.
Senior defensive end Kenneth Eiden IV leads Montana State and ranks second in the Big Sky. Defensive tackle Paul Brott landed on the first team All-Big Sky alongside Eiden, while DE Hunter Parsons was named honorable mention.
Montana State’s defensive front is full of veteran tail-kickers. It got after Montana QB Keali'i Ah Yat 11 times and sacked him three times, which slammed the door on the semifinal victory.
We'll give a slight edge to the Bobcats, though Illinois State’s offensive line has played admirably of late.
Advantage: Montana State
Montana State OL vs Illinois State DL Breakdown
Four of the five starters along the Montana State offensive line earned some form of All-Big Sky recognition this season, led by junior tackle Titan Fleischmann, who also received All-America honors.
The Bobcat big boys define “road paver” and are the catalysts for Montana State’s 230-plus rushing yards per game (fourth nationally).
Redshirt junior Jake Anderson is hard to miss on the Redbirds’ defensive line, standing 6-foot-5 and nearly 300 pounds. He’s a Missouri Valley Conference honorable mention and is by far Illinois State’s most valuable defensive lineman.
As soon as Montana State faces a defense with four all-conference players, we can have a discussion about a disadvantage. There’s almost no front that Montana State doesn’t have an advantage against.
Advantage: Montana State
Illinois State vs Montana State Special Teams Analysis
One of Illinois State’s bugaboos this year has been its ability (or, rather, inability) to connect on field goals.
Junior Michael Cosentino actually stepped in for the semifinal. Cosentino replaced Matt Maldonado, who was just 10-for-17 kicking, which included whiffing on all four of his final attempts this year.
Taco Dowler is an elite punt returner, having housed a 90-yarder earlier this season. Woods handles the kick return duties, averaging over 30 yards per return.
And, sure, you’re here for the weeds.
Neither punter is outstanding, though Montana State freshman Colby Frokjer — who doesn’t get much work, punting once in each the last two games — landed five of his eight playoff punts inside the opposing 20.
Illinois State’s Hayden Futch improved from last year (which was a bad showing), but has struggled in the playoffs.
Advantage: Montana State
Illinois State vs Montana State Coaching Breakdown
Montana State head coach Brent Vigen passed up multiple openings at the FBS level, most notably Oregon State, to stay with the Bobcats.
He’s been at the helm since 2021 and, in that time, he’s gone 60-12. More impressively, he’s on a 16-0 Big Sky Conference run with six playoff wins since the start of last year.
Vigen is coaching Montana State in the FCS National Championship for a third time.
Brock Spack, meanwhile, is finishing up his 17th season with Illinois State. In that time, he’s won 123 games (12 in the playoffs) and two Missouri Valley Conference titles (2014, 2015).
Spack led the Redbirds to the FCS National Championship game in the 2014 season, losing a 29-27 heartbreaker to North Dakota State.
Both coaches are legends in their respective programs. Spack will probably have buildings named after him, but Vigen has a CVS-receipt-long resume of postseason success.
Advantage: Montana State
Illinois State vs Montana State NCAAF Pick to Bet
This is going to be an exquisite matchup, and we anticipate the offenses to have the advantage. With the total set at 56.5 points, we expect the final to go over.
Since Week 5 this year, Montana State has been held under 31 points one time — in the Round 2 playoff win over Yale (a 21-13 stalemate that still featured 250 rushing yards from the Bobcats).
Schematically, this offense is difficult to stall. Talent-wise, it’s nearly impossible.
Montana State is equipped with so many weapons in its arsenal, and there's very little leading us to believe that Illinois State can hold these guys down for a full 60 minutes.
Containing Davis, Jones and Lamson on the ground is going to be difficult enough, but that's only the half of it. Taco Dowler can score from anywhere on the field, and Montana State uses its running backs as receivers better than just about anyone at the FCS level.
To survive in the playoffs, Illinois State needed production from its offense. The Redbirds scored 29, 42 and 30 in their last three victories thanks to heroics from Rittenhouse, Dawson and Sobkowicz.
With a championship on the line, you know these three will be at the heart of the effort, and they're going to have to come up big in this game.
Illinois State’s biggest positional advantage here comes in the passing attack and its lineup of receivers against a young Montana State secondary. Expect a pass-heavy approach here for two reasons:
- Montana State’s defensive front and linebacking corps led the Bobcats to a top-15 finish in run defense
- Illinois State turns to Rittenhouse when the goings get tough (he attempted 52 passes in the upset over North Dakota State)
The weather in Nashville looks great for this game, and we could be looking at a fast track.
These offenses are loaded with talent, and the quarterbacks come with a clutch factor.
Illinois State projects to play from behind as a +11 underdog, so I expect the offense to turn to Rittenhouse and let him throw it a ton here. If the Redbirds want this title, they’ll have to match the Bobcats’ explosive scoring attack.
This is going to be an incredible game, and I expect it to be a back-and-forth affair for a while.
Illinois State is going to have to force the issue through the air and get the ball in the hands of its playmaking receivers. Montana State is going to lean on its ground attack in the late stages, and few teams at this level can pin down the rushing attack late in the fourth quarter.
Montana State pulls away late in this one to avenge last year’s FCS natty loss, 38-26.
Pick: Over 56.5
Illinois State vs Montana State Trend to Know
