As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
My primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.
I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.
It has been a rough three-week stretch. Those are unfortunately just inevitable in this gig. I don't think I've ever had a worse stretch of turnover and fourth-down variance, but that stuff evens out over time.
More critically, I've had way too many putrid calls. Time to hopefully go on a run through the end of the season, but it's impossible to guess when a drought will end, so please, as always, bet responsibly.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my eight favorite Week 10 spots and also included six other potential looks on the radar.
For what it's worth, Rice +14 also made the cut this week on a game that will be played on Friday night. It's a tough spot for Memphis, which is coming off an emotional, season-saving comeback victory over USF with Tulane on deck next Friday night.
This Rice offense is not an easy prep on a short week and can certainly cause some headaches for the Tigers if they come out a bit flat.
Additionally, the Owls profile similarly to a service academy with their style of play that limits the overall number of possessions, which makes catching 14-plus extra appealing.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 33-32-2 (50.8%)
- Overall: 202-155-3 (56.6%)
Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 10 slate.
College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | SMU +12.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | West Virginia +14 |
  | 12 p.m. | Air Force +1.5 |
  | 3 p.m. | New Mexico +5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Florida +7.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Maryland +22 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Oklahoma +3 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Florida State -9 |
SMU +12.5 vs. Miami
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
SMU has had a very disappointing season to date, especially in comparison to last year's magical run to the College Football Playoff. The Mustangs already have three losses — although they did hold fourth-quarter leads in each.
The offense looked awful last week at Wake Forest, but I do believe part of that had to do with the spot.
That game came in between a victory over Clemson and this Saturday's showdown with Miami. They just weren't ready to play a noon kick against a feisty Demon Deacon bunch coming off a bye.
After having their 20-game conference win streak end, I expect a much sharper effort. After all, they still remain in the thick of the ACC race with a 3-1 league record.
From a matchup perspective, Miami likely won't have much success running the ball on an elite SMU front that has allowed a minuscule 2.7 yards per attempt.
That will put the onus on Carson Beck, who has historically struggled mightily on the road and when under pressure — both of which could become an issue against this SMU defense that thrives in the Havoc department.
Beck is usually kept clean behind his elite pass-protecting offensive line, but Louisville's similarly elite defensive line bothered him enough to throw four interceptions.
Over the past three seasons, Beck has only nine Big-Time Throws to 20 Turnover-Worthy Plays when under pressure. And last year at Georgia, he threw for 25 touchdowns to just five interceptions at home compared to a 3:7 ratio on the road, while averaging two yards fewer per attempt and double the sack rate.
Additionally, there's a chance Miami is a bit overrated in the market due to how its schedule has played out so far. It benefited from seeing CJ Carr in his first-ever start (on the road) with a Notre Dame defense that had yet to find its way.
It also faced South Florida in one of the best situational spots of the year, while Florida was an absolute mess at the time, with a less than 100% DJ Lagway. This will also mark the first time all year that the Hurricanes leave their home state.
So, what are my concerns? The SMU pass defense has been a bit vulnerable in coverage, and Malachi Toney is capable of housing it any time he touches the ball.
Although, the Mustangs should get a few defensive reinforcements (including two key starters) back in the lineup this week. They've also been vulnerable against quarterback scrambles, which isn't a worry against Beck.
Additionally, Kevin Jennings also really struggles under pressure, which could become an issue against the menacing Miami defensive end duo of Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain, especially since the Mustangs have only one reliable tackle in pass protection.
Jennings will need to be much sharper than he was last week.
SMU doesn't really try to run the ball, which actually works in its favor in this particular matchup since the Hurricanes feature one of the nation's best run-stopping units.
While the secondary is exponentially better than last year's group, that's still Miami's weak link defensively. If Jennings is on, SMU can take advantage. If not, it will lead to too many quick three-and-outs that could eventually become too much to overcome.
It's interesting to note that if you adjust for home-field advantage and opponent, these two teams rank very similarly on an Adjusted EPA Per Play basis.
With that said, I thought the opening line of around 10 was pretty fair, so I was happy to jump in after the early move pushed this out to 12.5.
I think this is a great opportunity to buy low on the Mustangs against a Miami team that has historically come out flat in these spots under head coach Mario Cristobal.
And I do expect this staff (with countless ties to Miami) to have a very good opening script that could catch Miami off guard, as we saw against Louisville.
Notable Nugget
In ACC play, Cristobal is just 6-13 ATS (31.6%) as a favorite, failing to cover by over a touchdown per game. That includes last week's miraculous cover against Stanford. And as a road favorite of a touchdown-plus, he's gone just 1-5 against the closing number.
Pick: SMU +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
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West Virginia +14 at Houston
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is the hold-your-nose special of the week.
I came into the season with high hopes for Houston in large part due to trusting Willie Fritz, whom I hate fading.
He's certainly done what he usually does as a program-builder and has the Cougars ahead of schedule at 7-1 to start the season and in the thick of the Big 12 title race.
With that said, we may have hit the peak of the market on the Cougars, who really should have lost earlier this season at lowly Oregon State and benefited from playing an extremely shorthanded Arizona State team last week in Tempe.
They also got to face Colorado when the Buffaloes inexplicably started their backup quarterback. They've certainly benefited from an easy schedule with a number of breaks built in.
Conversely, West Virginia has played one of the 20 most difficult schedules in the nation to date. All six of its FBS opponents are likely headed for a bowl appearance, while only three of Houston's seven will likely make a postseason appearance.
I do think the Mountaineers remain a bit undervalued after dealing with so many injuries throughout the season, while basically fielding a brand-new team with an entirely new staff.
They've used four different quarterbacks and are now down to true freshman Scotty Fox, who I thought played extremely well last week against TCU after head coach Rich Rodriguez made some tweaks to the offense and offensive line.
Fox finished that game 28-of-41 for 301 yards, along with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a six-point loss in which the 'Eeers finished with only one fewer net yard.
While it's hard to predict what we'll get from Fox (who went 6-of-17 at UCF) again, I do believe the offense can carry that momentum over into this weekend.
So, what are my concerns here?
Well, besides betting against Fritz, West Virginia has been dreadful on the road, and this is a noon kick with travel and a true freshman quarterback. That's certainly not ideal, especially if things go haywire for an offense that likes to use tempo.
Like most Fritz teams, the Cougars want to establish the ground game, where they're not very efficient. Plus, West Virginia's run defense has been a strong suit so far this season.
The pass defense does give up too many explosives in Zac Alley's aggressive scheme, which could be problematic against a Houston offense that has surprisingly thrived in that department under transfer starting quarterback Conner Weigman.
Alley will certainly bring the blitz on obvious passing situations, which has caused Weigman issues in the past. Hopefully, the negative plays outweigh the explosives.
Plus, Houston just doesn't profile as a very scary large favorite and may come out a bit lethargic for an 11 a.m. local kick against a winless Big 12 team following its huge upset win over the Sun Devils.
I'm OK selling high in this spot, but it's certainly a bit spooky trusting this WVU team on Halloween weekend.
Notable Nugget
Fritz has excelled against the spread in almost any situation, including as a favorite, where he sports a sparkling 49-28-1 (63.6%) ATS mark. However, he hasn't been as prolific (19-15 ATS) when laying double digits.
For what it's worth, Rich Rod historically has struggled in the underdog role at 29-42 ATS (40.8%), including 8-15 ATS (34.8%) when catching double digits.
Pick: West Virginia +14 or Better
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Air Force +1.5 vs. Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Air Force is a hilarious team to chart.
From an Adjusted EPA Per Play perspective, the Falcons have the best Group of Five offense in the country. Unfortunately for them, they also have the worst defense in the country due to an extremely slow-footed back end that frequently looks like a bad FCS outfit.
However, this is a game where the defense can actually hold its own against a similar offensive scheme it gets to practice against on a daily basis.
The familiarity on both sides is through the roof, which is why these matchups between service academies have been a cash cow over the past two decades.
Due to that familiarity, both defenses will likely come up with frequent stops on early downs despite each ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in yards before contact.
That will set up some key third-and-long situations where I trust the explosive Air Force offense exponentially more against an Army defense that can't generate pressure and struggles in coverage.
On the season, the Airmen rank sixth in the country in third-and-long conversion rate (7-plus yards), while Army has performed below the national average in those down and distances at 27%.
I honestly believe that will prove to be the difference for an Air Force team that went on a tear in the second half of last season in a similar situation with a brand-new team and quarterback.
You have to handicap these service academy matchups completely differently than normal FBS games.
From a numbers perspective, I could see how someone might fancy the Black Knights, but I truly believe the Air Force defense can actually look a bit competent against a run-heavy Army attack that doesn't force many missed tackles nor get much after the catch.
Plus, the Falcons boast a clearly superior offense that should have more success on those inevitable tougher third-and-medium to third-and-long situations.
Fourth downs will certainly play a role in this outcome, so hopefully, we're on the good side of those swings.
Notable Nugget
In true home games, Air Force has gone 22-5 against Army all-time compared to just 14-14 in West Point.
Pick: Air Force +1.5 (Play to -1)
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New Mexico +5 at UNLV
3 p.m. ET ⋅ Mountain West Network
If you've read this piece this season, you know I'm not a believer in this 6-1 Rebels squad. They started the season with wins over Sam Houston, Idaho State and the previous corpse of UCLA — and didn't look great in the process.
They then followed that up with a pair of road wins over Miami (OH) and Wyoming.
However, they were about to get blown out of the water in Oxford before Dequan Finn suffered an injury on a pick-six late in the first half. Even with a backup quarterback, Miami still was in position to win before a late red-zone fumble.
Against Wyoming in a hail storm, the Rebels pulled out a 14-point victory in large part due to a pair of punt blocks they returned for touchdowns.
The Cowboys (who went 1-for-3 on fourth down compared to UNLV's 2-for-2 mark) finished with over 100 more net yards and a higher net yards per play.
UNLV then pulled out a last-minute comeback win over Air Force, 51-48, after allowing over 600 yards of total offense.
It once again benefited from winning the turnover battle (key fumble that led to a short field touchdown) and an Air Force missed 40-yard game-tying kick at the end of regulation.
And in its most recent game, UNLV got dominated on the road by Boise State
Its strength of schedule lies outside the top 100 but has benefited from UCLA's post-coaching change rebound and Miami (OH) playing with its starting quarterback since.
The Rebels have also been quite fortunate in the turnover department, where they hold a +10 margin. Their per-game average of +1.2 ranks in the top-10 nationally, while New Mexico has been on the complete opposite end of the spectrum — ahead of only Florida Atlantic in that department.
Don't be surprised if a few bounces go New Mexico's way.
The Lobos, under the tutelage of rising star head coach Jason Eck, should be able to run their offense with ease all game against a Rebels defense that simply can't stop the run.
In fact, they rank dead last in the country in yards before contact allowed. That will enable to Lobos to stay ahead of the sticks and run their stuff against a very undisciplined defense.
Ultimately, I just don't see much difference between these teams in a game that should come down to which team has the ball last, so I happily took the five points with the conference road dog.
Notable Nugget
UNLV head coach Dan Mullen is 10-2 ATS off a bye week as a favorite compared to 0-7 as an underdog.
Pick: New Mexico +5 (Play to +4.5)
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Florida +7.5 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
A new coach bump for the Gators? We've certainly seen that play out in the past, including this year with UAB and UCLA. In a rivalry game, I'm not expecting any quit in the Gators for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
In fact, I'm expecting more energy under Billy Gonzales, who will switch some things up offensively ahead of this matchup. You can expect more tempo and quite a few wrinkles early on that might catch Georgia off guard.
That could lead to Florida getting out to an important early lead, which ultimately wouldn't come as a surprise against the slow-starting Bulldogs, who have been outscored, 56-10, in the first quarter of their five SEC bouts.
Not only does Florida need changes on that side of the ball, but quarterback DJ Lagway should once again really benefit from the bye week to get even healthier and work on the timing with his receivers, which he didn't get to do leading up to the season.
Florida will be a bit shorthanded at wide receiver without Aidan Mizell and Vernell Brown, which certainly doesn't help matters.
However, the Gators still have enough talent with star freshman Dallas Wilson and Eugene Wilson, who has flashed in practice over the past two weeks and was being criminally misused under Napier.
With Lagway likely having ample time to operate in the pocket against a Georgia defense that can't generate pressure (the Dawgs rank outside the top-100 in pressure rate and sack rate), he should be able to find advantageous matchups on the outside against a vulnerable secondary.
Georgia will also be without a key wide receiver in Colbie Young, who ranks second on the team in receptions and yards.
And it does at least look like Florida will have all of its defensive backs healthy for this tilt after it was severely shorthanded against Mississippi State.
Ultimately, I do think Florida is in a good situational spot with the new coach bump and is a bit undervalued after Lagway's early-season struggles due to injury and missed time in the offseason.
Consequently, I was really just looking for over a touchdown here, as I do expect the Gators to be very game, especially early on against a Georgia team that has all of the pressure on it.
Plus, I still maintain that this Georgia team is extremely overrated.
This is not your older brother's Dawgs, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They easily could have two more losses on the season if not for late comebacks against Ole Miss and Tennessee, in addition to some ref assistance that prevented Auburn from jumping out to a 17-0 lead.
My primary concerns for this matchup boil down to Kirby Smart's in-game adjustments and the Gators' inability to generate pressure themselves, especially without the presence of Caleb Banks on the interior.
UGA quarterback Gunner Stockton has been nearly flawless when kept clean this season, and he shouldn't have to deal with many bodies in his face here.
The Florida defense should hold up against the run, so those passing downs will be critical in deciding the outcome.
In regard to Kirby's adjustments, they have essentially won Georgia multiple games this season and should have led to another after it held Alabama scoreless in the second half. As a result, I will certainly be looking to back the Dawgs live if trailing early as usual.
Lastly, Georgia has elite special teams under Smart, but Florida won't be at a severe disadvantage in that department.
Notable Nugget
Kirby Smart is one of the worst nonconference large favorites in the sport, but he has thrived as a favorite of more than a touchdown in conference road or neutral games. In those spots, he has gone 20-10 ATS (66.7%) with an average cover margin of nearly five points per game.
Pick: Florida +7.5 (-120) or Better
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Maryland +22 vs. Indiana
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I'll be the idiot to get in front of this Curt Cignetti train since I do like the spot and project this spread under three touchdowns.
Look, I'm a full-on believer of this Hoosiers squad. I have them power-rated as the No. 2 team in the country, trailing only Ohio State.
However, at this price range, based on the past two closing spreads against UCLA and Michigan State (where IU went 1-1 ATS), we are essentially calling Maryland equal to UCLA and Michigan State.
Not in my book.
I'm aware that Maryland closed as an underdog slightly above a field goal on the road at UCLA, but that cross-country spot has been worth about 4.5-5 points.
Plus, as opposed to those two teams, Maryland actually has a very stout defense that ranks in the top 25 nationally when adjusted for opponent. It really hit on the freshmen and transfers on that side of the ball.
The Terps have certainly been opportunistic in the turnover department. That likely isn't sustainable, but they can generate pressure at an elite level, which you need to do to have any shot of slowing down Fernando Mendoza and this Indiana machine.
Keep an eye on edge Zahir Mathis, who I personally love watching.
The Maryland offense isn't great by any stretch. It simply can't run the ball, but true freshman quarterback Malik Washington is taking care of the ball and not taking any sacks behind a vastly improved offensive line.
Both of those factors (and Maryland's solid special teams play) are critical when backing a big dog. And as usual in College Park, Washington has dangerous weapons at wide receiver to work with.
From a situational standpoint, Maryland is coming off a bye week, which I believe has more value for a team with a pair of new coordinators (who I think are both significant upgrades) and a roster with severe turnover.
The extra prep time should also really benefit a true freshman signal-caller.
Meanwhile, Indiana is fresh off its second 50-plus point win over a conference opponent, with its last real obstacle to a perfect regular season on deck at Penn State (if you still want to call it that).
Cignetti probably will have his team fully focused, but there's a chance the Hoosiers may come out a bit flat.
Maryland has three losses on the year but led in the fourth quarter of each. The Terps are just a few plays away from coming into this game at 7-0, in which case this line certainly wouldn't be sitting above three touchdowns.
I think their defense can do enough to keep this within 21. Keep in mind, they did play the Hoosiers tough last year in Bloomington.
Lastly, Maryland was down a handful of defensive starters in the second half (and a key edge rusher for the entire game) against UCLA. At full strength, it pulls that game out.
I'm expecting the Terps to be closer to full strength here, but it's worth mentioning that stud safety Jalen Huskey will miss the first half due to targeting.
Hopefully, Cignetti doesn't have the spread on his mind if it's teetering around the number late. I may look dumb here, but it won't be the first nor last time.
Notable Nugget
It's certainly scary fading Cignetti in any situation, especially as a conference favorite where he has gone 18-8 ATS (69.2%), covering by over 11 points per game. That includes a 9-3 ATS mark at Indiana — although he's just 2-2 when laying more than two touchdowns.
Pick: Maryland +22
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Oklahoma +3 at Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Ahead of this matchup, I said I wanted Oklahoma at 3 or better. Even with the recent losses, I still have the Sooners power-rated a couple of points better than Tennessee.
Now, I admittedly may be off there, as it's certainly difficult to adjust Oklahoma due to the injury to quarterback John Mateer, who clearly shouldn't have been out on the field against Texas.
He should be close to full strength for this matchup and will have ample opportunities to attack an extremely suspect Tennessee defense that has masked a lot of warts with a nation-leading five defensive touchdowns.
Oklahoma has recently found some semblance of a rushing attack and tweaked (for the better) its offensive line last week.
I expect it to have success moving the ball on a porous Tennessee secondary that really misses star corners Rickey Gibson III and Jermod McCoy. The Vols will really be in trouble if cornerback Colton Hood also can't suit up after getting dinged up last week.
And when Oklahoma does move it, you can expect the Sooners to continue finishing drives off with touchdowns, which has been an area of strength for Ben Arbuckle's offense. On the season, Tennessee's defense ranks 123rd in red-zone scoring rate. The Vols have allowed 24 touchdowns on 29 trips (82.8%).
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has allowed only six touchdowns on 16 trips for the entire season. That's the unit I believe will decide this game.
The Tennessee offense is undoubtedly a force to be reckoned with under transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has thrived with the deep ball all season, especially last week in Lexington. However, this will be his toughest test (by far) against an Oklahoma defense I have rated as a top-three unit in the country.
While Aguilar has been awesome to date, he hasn't really faced a defense of this caliber that can generate pressure at an elite level. And when Aguilar is pressured, that's where the mistakes have come in the past.
Just take a look at the defenses Aguilar has faced and their respective sack rate rankings:
- Syracuse, 92nd
- Georgia, 130th
- UAB, 82nd
- Mississippi State, 74th
- Arkansas, 79th
- Alabama, 45th
- Kentucky, 85th
Per my numbers, he has only faced two top-50 defenses in Georgia and Alabama, which I think are both a bit overrated on that side of the ball.
However, in those two matchups, he has a 1:4 Big-Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play ratio and a 5:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In all other FBS matchups, he has a 12:1 BTT-to-TWP ratio and an 11:3 TD-to-INT ratio.
More importantly, Alabama is the only defense he has faced that ranks in the top 50 in Sack Rate, and the Tide are 45th in that department. Among all of the FBS teams he has faced, the average sack ranking of Tennessee's opponents is 85th.
Well, Oklahoma ranks No. 1 in the country in both Sack Rate and Havoc. This is a major step up in class for the App State transfer.
And while Oklahoma's defense didn't perform up to par last week against Ole Miss, I do think the conditions really played a part, as did the legs of Trinidad Chambliss. While Aguilar has some underrated mobility, he's certainly not Chambliss when it comes to extending plays.
Neyland Stadium is no joke at night, and this certainly won't be easy, but I'm happy to take the three points with the Sooners defense in a College Football Playoff elimination game that should come down to the wire.
Notable Nugget
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is just 14-24 ATS (36.8%) as a conference favorite, but a more respectable 6-6 when favored by less than 10.
Pick: Oklahoma +3 or Better
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Florida State -9 vs. Wake Forest
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
Last week, I said that Wake Forest might have the most underrated defense in college football. The Deacs certainly looked the part in holding SMU to 12 points.
Following that victory, they now rank as a top-10 unit nationally when adjusting for opponent. Do I think they're a top-10 defense? Absolutely not, but this is a feisty bunch.
However, this is a very tough spot for the Demon Deacons following that upset win against a Florida State team coming off a bye following four straight losses.
As long as the Noles don't quit on the season and Tommy Castellanos suits up at quarterback (trending to play, per Mike Norvell), I like them at anything under 10.
Not only has Florida State played the much more difficult schedule, but it's also been snakebit in a number of close losses.
The Noles still boast a very sturdy run defense that has held opponents to 3.3 yards per rush, which should completely neuter this extremely limited Wake Forest offense that has used two quarterbacks in recent weeks.
The Deacs need to get running back Demond Claiborne going on the ground to have any shot at sustaining drives, but I'm not sure they'll have success doing so in this matchup.
The Demon Deacons are also one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone when they actually get down inside the 20. For the season, Wake's 72% red-zone scoring percentage ranks 129th in FBS. It has scored only nine touchdowns on 25 trips (36%) inside the 20; only Nevada and UMass have a lower touchdown scoring rate.
Additionally, FSU will get starting cornerback Ja'Bril Rawls back from injury, which will have a ripple effect on the rest of a struggling secondary that Wake isn't really built to exploit, regardless.
Ultimately, I just believe Florida State has the perfect offensive scheme to attack this Wake Forest defense.
And if it gets a lead, there's really not a lot of recourse for this Wake Forest offense to play from behind, while FSU can stick with its ground game, limiting the heavy pressure Wake can generate when it knows teams have to pass.
Despite the tougher schedule, Florida State still has an enormous edge when it comes to net Success Rate, available yards gained percentage and quality drive ratio.
Assuming FSU still cares, this is a prime spot to buy the dip on the Noles, while selling high on Wake.
Notable Nugget
Mike Norvell has historically been a cash cow out of the bye week. With 14-plus days in between games, he has gone 9-2 ATS (81.8%), covering by a touchdown per game. That includes an easy cover earlier this season with a 66-point outburst against Kent State.
Pick: Florida State -9 (Play to -9.5)
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Stuckey's Potential Week 10 Spot Adds
- Boston College +28.5 vs. Notre Dame, depending on how BC's laundry list injury report looks.
- South Carolina +12.5 at Ole Miss in a game Lane Kiffin's teams will usually be a bit flat for — especially after huge efforts against Georgia and Oklahoma. Although, where is South Carolina at mentally?
- Stanford +14.5 vs. Pitt. The Tree also have to travel across the country, but these trips have been brutal for East Coast teams. Pitt has a number of injuries on both sides of the ball worth monitoring, but the home 'dog might be worth a look here at over two touchdowns.
