Thursday nights are for football.
Along with the NFL's Ravens vs. Dolphins matchup, we'll be treated to two college football games: Tulane vs. UTSA in the American Conference and Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt.
Read on for the Thursday college football odds and NCAAF picks on Oct. 30.
Thursday College Football Odds, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tulane vs UTSA Pick
By John Feltman
This number feels inflated given the situational and statistical context.
Tulane’s defensive backfield has been vulnerable to efficient passing teams, and UTSA’s offense fits that profile perfectly.
Quarterback Owen McCown is the leader of the offense, having another fine season with 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Roadrunners rank 40th nationally in EPA Per Pass at +0.15.
Tulane’s run defense may slow UTSA’s ground game early, but the passing matchup strongly favors the Roadrunners, especially given that Tulane ranks 125th nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed.
Meanwhile, UTSA’s defense can hold its own against a Tulane offense that has struggled to sustain drives and should face long third downs.
Tulane sits near the bottom half of the nation in rushing efficiency, ranking 102nd in EPA Per Rush. Its early-down numbers are average, coming in outside the top 70 nationally.
That inconsistency has led to the aforementioned longer third downs, with the Wave averaging nearly 7.7 yards to go.
In a controlled dome environment and under the Thursday night lights, the home-field advantage should really help the Roadrunners.
Expect a tight, one-possession-driven game where Tulane’s efficiency doesn’t justify being more than a field-goal favorite.
I'm not giving up on UTSA and am ready to sell the Green Wave high.
Pick: UTSA +4.5 (Play to +3)
| |
Marshall vs Coastal Carolina Pick
This over/under opened at 56.5 points and moved down to 53.5 before rebounding up to 55.5. Marshall also took quite a bit of movement, jumping from a -2.5 favorite to -5.5.
To oversimplify this game for a bit: Marshall's defense is exceptional at creating takeaways, while Coastal Carolina's offense is one of the most turnover-prone in the country.
As a result of both, the Thundering Herd rank second in the country in net field position, while the Chants are 102nd in that department.
Marshall's defense excels against the run, and Coastal's only offensive reprieve comes via the run. The Chants' QB situation is dire enough to distrust this team entirely.
The QB carousel continued last week when Coastal gave way to JUCO transfer Samari Collier, who completed 12-of-19 passes but rushed for 74 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-37 win over App State.
Collier becomes the third starting QB this season, succeeding NC State and Maryland transfer MJ Morris (one touchdown against four interceptions) and sophomore Tad Hudson (10 sacks in three starts).
Meanwhile, Marshall's QB situation has been stellar.
Offensively, the Thundering Herd build the whole plane out of quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who leads the team in both passing and rushing (despite missing most of Week 1 and all of Week 2).
Slow Del Rio-Wilson down, and Marshall's offense likely falls apart. But that's easier said than done and hasn't been fully done yet, as Marshall is 4-1 when he plays a full game, averaging 43.8 points per game.
On the Coastal side, home and away splits aren't very stark. It lost, 38-0, at home to East Carolina earlier in the year and also took a 45-37 win at Appalachian State on Saturday. CCU also took care of business at South Alabama, 38-20, but was blown out on the road by ODU, 47-7. This isn't a team with a strong home-field advantage.
Against quality competition, Coastal has rolled over and shown its belly. It's 0-3 against top-100 foes, per aggregate industry power ratings, with an average point margin of -39.7 (Marshall, 86th).
Marshall, meanwhile, comes off back-to-back wins over Old Dominion (ODU's first loss of the season) and Texas State. It's a team well-equipped to handle Coastal's offense on Thursday night.
I'm not letting extreme recency bias cloud what is a fairly simple handicap.
Pick: Marshall -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
