Welcome to Rivalry Week. Week 14 — the last of the college football regular season — brings plenty of longstanding matchups with tradition and pageantry.
And on top of that, many games feature major College Football Playoff and conference championship implications.
I broke down 5 games for this week — 3 on Friday and 2 on Saturday — and dished out multiple picks for each one.
We'll start with a Mississippi staple, as the No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels head to Starkville to take on Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. With Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin mulling his future, there are once again off-field waves in this heated rivalry.
Then, we'll head to Georgia, where the No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs meet the No. 23 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
The final Friday game on my card features a major SEC showdown with bad blood, as the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies look to continue their perfect season against the No. 16 Texas Longhorns.
When Saturday comes along, we'll turn our attention to Ann Arbor, where the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines will look to beat the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in "The Game" for a fifth straight season.
Finally, we'll close it out with another edition of the Iron Bowl between the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers.
Without further ado, let's take a look at my Week 14 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Friday, November 28 and Saturday, November 29.
College Football Picks, Predictions for Week 14
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Rivalry Week. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Pick
The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville on Friday, Nov. 28. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ole Miss is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -270. Mississippi State, meanwhile, enters as a +7 underdog and is +220 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 total points.
Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 28.
Ole Miss Rebels
There may not be a college football rivalry with as many off-field waves as the Egg Bowl.
The noise outside of the game this season is the status of head coach Lane Kiffin, as the Ole Miss athletic director will force a decision from his head coach after Week 14.
There's plenty on the line for Mississippi, including a birth in the College Football Playoff.
Ole Miss has fielded one of the best offenses in the nation, led by Ferris State transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The sophomore has a 14:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, more than doubling his big-time throws versus turnover-worthy plays.
Despite the loss of the best Havoc defense in 2024, the Rebels retooled in 2025 to produce one of the best pass defenses in the nation.
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has fielded ranks in the top 20 with respect to pass efficiency and EPA allowed. The nickel defense plays with plenty of numbers at the second level with quarters and Cover 3 zone.
The defense does have issues with offenses capable of running the ball, particularly against inside zone run concepts with a light box.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State has a chance to go to bowl season with a victory over rival Ole Miss in what would be a major leap forward for head coach Jeff Lebby.
The Bulldogs have played a tight conference schedule with one-possession losses to Tennessee, Florida and Texas.
This has been a run-first offense behind running backs Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell. Zone read serves as the primary concept for the ground game, but Miss State averages more success and explosives with inside zone.
Mississippi State has had more success creating explosives through the air, especially in passing downs, with a rank of seventh in EPA.
Lebby's offense has not been able to sustain methodical drives, but it does have one of the highest numbers nationally in points per scoring attempt. In 62 offensive possessions to cross the opponent's 40-yard line, Mississippi State averages 4.6 points.
The defense has been a point of contention during conference play, fielding one of the lowest numbers in defending the rush and generating pressure on the quarterback.
The Bulldogs rank bottom-10 in opponent rush efficiency, Line Yards and rush explosives allowed. Mississippi State has struggled against man blocking concepts with just a 39% Success Rate.
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction
There should be no resistance from Mississippi State when it comes to Ole Miss' ground attack.
In recent games, the Bulldogs gave up 9.4 yards per play to Missouri on the ground and previously allowed 6.9 yards per play on 44 rushing attempts against Georgia.
Ole Miss' second-heaviest run concept usage is man blocking, recording a 63% Success Rate with an explosive on one of every 10 attempts.
The biggest benefactor of that concept is Chambliss, who has cranked out 334 yards on designed runs this season. The quarterback has had limited designed rush attempts the past two weeks after attempting 27 in the previous two weeks against South Carolina and Oklahoma.
Chambliss' rushing prop should be under review for an over.
Mississippi State should have similar success on the ground with zone read, as Ole Miss has a tepid Success Rate of 45% against the concept.
The difference on this side of the ball is the Rebels' tackling at the second level. Ole Miss ranks 21st in PFF tackling, and that number improves to 14th in broken tackles allowed.
The Action Network projection calls for Ole Miss to be favored by 8 points with a total of 65.
There's no expectation that Mississippi State will produce a stop against Kiffin's offense, particularly when Chambliss has designed run attempts.
Look for the Rebels to take the Egg Bowl by a touchdown or more just before the fireworks begin within the coaching staff.
Pick: Ole Miss -7 or Better · Chambliss Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
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Georgia vs Georgia Tech Pick
The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, Georgia. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Georgia vs. Georgia Tech prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 28.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is done with its SEC schedule. With a 7-1 conference record, the Bulldogs do not control their own destiny for the SEC Championship game. Instead, they need one of Texas A&M or Alabama to lose this week.
The differences between this year’s Bulldogs defense and last year’s are jarring.
Last year’s squad was great against the pass but couldn’t stop the run, which allowed Georgia Tech to walk up and down the field in the 2024 edition of this rivalry, a 44-42 Bulldogs win after eight overtimes.
The Yellow Jackets ran for 260 yards at nearly six yards per attempt, with over 100 coming from quarterback Haynes King.
This year’s defense can’t stop the pass, ranking 78th nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed and 56th in PFF coverage grading.
However, the Bulldogs have proven to be elite against the run.
King and his backfield mate, Jamal Haynes, primarily run power and counter concepts. Georgia ranks mid-FBS in Success Rate allowed against those concepts, but the Bulldogs rank 14th overall in Rushing Success Rate allowed. They rank in the top 15 nationally in broken tackles allowed and the top 10 in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Ultimately, I’m not expecting much from Georgia Tech’s rushing attack, and that’s a problem for the Yellow Jackets, given it’s their primary way of moving the ball down the field.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech was win-and-in the ACC Championship if it beat Pitt at home last week. Alas, the Panthers lost, 42-28, behind two interceptions from King.
Georgia Tech now needs plenty of help to make the ACC Championship game. There are two scenarios in which the Yellow Jackets will make it to Charlotte:
- Pitt wins AND Virginia loses AND SMU loses
- Miami wins AND NC State wins AND SMU loses AND Duke loses AND Virginia loses
The way to attack Georgia’s defense is through the air, rather than on the ground. Much of that is due to the fact that the Bulldogs can’t generate a pass rush, ranking 120th nationally in PFF’s grades.
King will have time to operate from a clean pocket, where he’s thrown for nearly 2,000 yards at 9.2 YPA with seven touchdowns, 11 big-time throws, no interceptions and no turnover-worthy plays.
While Georgia Tech ranks in the top 15 nationally in EPA Per Pass and Passing Success Rate, the Yellow Jackets offense is still heavily dependent on the run.
The key question in this game is whether King can march Georgia Tech down the field through the air. Georgia does a good job of preventing explosiveness overall, so King and the Yellow Jackets will have to be methodical.
Even if he can, questions remain regarding Georgia Tech’s red-zone offense.
The Yellow Jackets are arguably the nation’s most conservative red-zone unit, ranking in the top 10 in red-zone scoring but 90th in red-zone touchdown rate. They’re settling for far too many field goals.
Yet, the bigger issue is the defense.
Georgia Tech’s defense is horrific, specifically against the run. The Yellow Jackets rank 120th in Havoc, 115th in PFF tackle grading, 107th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 115th in EPA Per Rush allowed.
At some point, the Yellow Jackets won't be able to stop Georgia from moving the ball efficiently down the field and scoring.
Georgia vs Georgia Tech Prediction
Most Bulldog games follow a similar script.
Georgia struggles early before head coach Kirby Smart makes key adjustments. It’s worth noting that in the past three matchups between Smart and Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets have led after the first quarter.
However, there's a massive difference in the Middle 8 between these two teams. Georgia ranks 17th nationally in Middle 8, while Georgia Tech ranks 121st.
I took Georgia Tech +14 on open and recommend the same before taking Georgia live, likely at the start of the second quarter.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings projects Georgia as a 14-point favorite, right in line with the market.
Eventually, Georgia Tech’s rush defense will wear down. I would look toward rushing props for the Bulldogs, either for Nate Frazier or Gunner Stockton, for an anytime touchdown.
Picks:
- Georgia Tech +14 or Better · Georgia Live
- Nate Frazier Anytime Touchdown
- Gunner Stockton Anytime Touchdown
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Texas A&M vs Texas Pick
The Texas A&M Aggies take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin on Friday, Nov. 28. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas A&M is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Texas, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Texas A&M vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 28.
Texas A&M Aggies
There's plenty of motivation for Texas A&M to compete in this game despite the buffer built in to make the College Football Playoff.
The Aggies lost to the Longhorns last year and haven't taken a game from "big brother" since 2010.
Head coach Mike Elko will look to remain undefeated and head to the SEC Championship with one of the best offenses in the nation.
The Aggies are more run than pass, but the majority of explosives come from a passing game led by quarterback Marcel Reed.
Wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver are the most dangerous duo of any passing game in college football, averaging 2.9 and 3.6 yards per route run, respectively.
Elko has seen improvement from his 4-2-5 defense this season, evolving into a top-15 team in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
No run concept has an advantage against the Aggies' run-stoppers, but fundamentals in tackling have continued to contribute to opponent explosives. Texas A&M ranks 135th in Rush EPA allowed, as most offenses have exceeded the national average of 44% available yards.
The issues with opponent scoring have crept up in a number of high-scoring affairs. Texas A&M sits outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives allowed and 130th in opponent red-zone scoring.
Texas Longhorns
Texas finally broke a series of close wins with a 50-burger trouncing of Arkansas in Week 13.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has had a bumpy offensive road in 2025, falling outside the top 90 in Success Rate and ranking as a bottom-five team in rush explosives.
Quarterback Arch Manning has had a midseason renaissance, throwing for 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions over the past four games. The former five-star recruit has thrown for more than 300 yards against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Arkansas over the past month.
One sign of improvement is his reduction of mistakes. Manning has posted a turnover-worthy play in just one of his past five showings.
The Longhorns have been excellent as a rush defense but have shown cracks against the pass. Georgia defeated Texas thanks to a 55% Success Rate on 31 passing attempts and generating five explosives at 7.3 yards per play.
The Horns rank 79th in defending pass explosives with extreme weaknesses against hitch, slant and out routes. However, opponents using wide receiver screens and crossing routes have had the most failures.
Texas A&M vs Texas Prediction
The first handicap in the Lone Star Showdown revolves around the Texas defense stopping Texas A&M's elite passing attack.
The Longhorns have been fantastic against wide receiver screens and crossing routes, two of the most utilized routes by the Aggies.
Reed has been middle-of-the-pack in terms of success against Cover 1, a coverage package heavily used by Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.
Texas also fields a much better defense in tackle grading and broken tackles allowed, sitting top-12 of all FBS teams in both categories.
The same can't be said about a Texas A&M defense with poor tackling analytics that include a rank outside the top 100 in broken tackles allowed.
Manning will see plenty of Cover 3 from the Aggies, which could force shorter routes in the slot to DeAndre Moore Jr., who averages an explosive 2.2 yards per route run.
Second-level tackling will allow the Longhorns to get into scoring position, an area where both teams have struggled. Texas' offense and Texas A&M's defense both rank outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives.
The best avenue for scoring could be Manning's pass explosives, with the Horns ranking 10th in Pass EPA. Methodicals may be out of question for the Texas offense, as the A&M defense ranks top-25 in limiting quality drives.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Texas A&M to be favored by two points, in line with the current market.
Any move on the number back to +3 would be a buy on the Longhorns, but there may be room for purchase in the total market.
The Aggies and Longhorns each have advantages with pass explosives. Texas A&M will be limited in crossers and wide receiver screens, but the Aggies' most utilized and advantageous route is the hitch.
There may not be a better hitch or curl route runner in the nation than Concepcion, who has posted a receiving touchdown in 7-of-11 Texas A&M games this season.
Pick: Over 51.5 · Texas +2.5 or Better · KC Concepcion Anytime TD (+115)
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Ohio State vs Michigan Pick
The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 29. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -395. Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +10 underdog and is +310 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State defense has seen little drop-off in the transition from Jim Knowles to Matt Patricia at coordinator. The Buckeyes sit top-10 in nearly every category on defense, with the only drop coming in the ability to create pass breakups.
The 4-2-5 has been fantastic in shutting down opposing ground attacks, generating a negative EPA against teams using inside and outside zone read concepts. A number of the best zone-read offenses were shut down against the Buckeyes, including Penn State and Washington.
Linebacker Sonny Styles leads the team in tackles, but pressure from the edge position has created a top-20 Havoc ranking. Caden Curry, Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Beau Atkinson have combined for 80 pressures this season.
On the other side of the ball, Julian Sayin has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, leading a Buckeyes offense that sits at the top of FBS in Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
The sophomore has thrown 27 touchdowns to four interceptions, quadrupling his big-time throws compared to his turnover-worthy plays. He also comes into this game as the top quarterback in on-target passing.
Sayin has been fantastic in pressured dropbacks, as his turnover-worthy play rate only bumps to 2.3% in a crowded pocket.
Head coach Ryan Day indicated that wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are working hard to return to action. Smith departed the UCLA game and missed action against Rutgers, while Tate has missed three consecutive games.
While Smith's return is all but guaranteed, Tate may be a true game-time decision.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan will look to cap off another successful season with a fifth straight victory in "The Game."
The offense has had a heavy lean to the rush with quarterback Bryce Underwood and a carousel of injured running backs. Justice Haynes will miss the remainder of the season, while Jordan Marshall is considered day-to-day.
Freshman Bryson Kuzdzal stepped up in relief as the starter against Maryland, recording three touchdowns and three explosive runs.
The defense also has injury concerns, as linebacker Ernest Hausmann is questionable for this game. The senior leads the team in tackles and ranks third in generating pressures. He'd be a big loss for a Wolverines team that's seventh in PFF tackle grading.
Michigan has been fantastic in standard downs, ranking as the second-best team in limiting explosives.
The trouble comes from a Success Rate and EPA perspective in passing downs. Teams that have created a quality drive generally put points on the scoreboard after crossing the 40-yard line.
Ohio State vs Michigan Prediction
The Ohio State defense will have its hands full with a Michigan offense that runs a combination of inside zone, outside zone, gap blocking, power and counter concepts.
The Wolverines run all of these concepts with 11 and 12 personnel, utilizing various formations with a high level of success.
Ohio State has been average in defending zone read concepts and highly successful against power and counter.
The one run concept frequently used by Michigan that can give Ohio State issues is outside zone against a light box. Michigan has 68 rushing attempts using outside zone with six in the box, producing a high 62% Success Rate and an explosive run on one of every four attempts.
The question is whether Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore identifies outside zone away from Ohio State's Curry, one of the best run defenders in the nation.
Sayin has lit up quarters and Cover 3 from opposing defenses all season, and Michigan exclusively runs those concepts for a secondary that's graded 47th by PFF.
There's reason to think Ohio State will have success hitting plays through the air with or without Smith and Tate. The Wolverines rank 88th in creating a contested catch, which would be a key advantage for the Buckeyes.
Michigan also falters in passing downs, an area where the Ohio State offense ranks fifth of all FBS teams.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for a line of Ohio State -11, giving a slight edge to the Buckeyes in the current market.
The Buckeyes defense has been fantastic in shutting down opposing zone read concepts, so expect resistance for Underwood and Kuzdzal on rushing attempts.
If Michigan is without Hausmann on the defense, Ohio State may be able to generate first downs from standard down attempts.
The Wolverines must be Havoc-minded against Sayin in passing downs, as the quarterback has lit up opposing quarters and Cover 3 packages.
But ultimately, the Buckeyes' ability to limit Underwood and a banged-up running back room will work in favor of a cover.
Pick: Over 44 or Better · Ohio State -10 or Better
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Alabama vs Auburn Pick
The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, Nov. 29. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. Auburn, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +190 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Auburn prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Since the pandemic, there have been two Iron Bowl editions played at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Neither contest was easy for Alabama, which won both by a combined five points despite those Auburn teams having just six wins.
The road has been unkind to the Crimson Tide this season, with a loss to Florida State and three other wins by a combined eight points.
Alabama has been unable to establish any kind of ground game offensively, as running back Jam Miller averages just 2.2 yards after first contact.
The bulk of the offense has come from the accurate arm of quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson ranks 25th among all FBS quarterbacks in On-Target Rate, signaling his ability to hit receivers in stride.
Alabama ranks top-10 nationally in Passing Success Rate, with wide receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams proving to be lethal at the wideout and slot positions.
Tight end Josh Cuevas has also become a focal piece of the passing offense over the past few games, generating a season-high seven targets against Oklahoma in Week 12.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack is a candidate for head coaching jobs at various Power 4 programs. He leads an Alabama defense that ranks top-15 nationally in Success Rate allowed.
The Crimson Tide’s 3-3-5 has been excellent in coverage and tackling grades while posting a rank of 14th in Quality Drives allowed.
The areas of concern for the Tide have been opponent rush explosives. A lack of consistent pass rush has generated scrambling opportunities for opposing quarterbacks on bailout third downs.
Auburn Tigers
Auburn has played two games since firing head coach Hugh Freeze.
The Tigers went 1-1 in those games with defensive coordinator DJ Durkin serving as the interim head coach, losing to Vanderbilt in overtime and dominating FCS Mercer last week.
Offensive coordinator Derrick Nix took over play-calling for the Vanderbilt game, but the Tigers failed to create a single methodical or explosive drive.
Auburn’s two rushing touchdowns came from quarterback Ashton Daniels, but a failure in standard downs created an average third-down distance of 8.1 yards to go.
Those offensive failures were nowhere to be found in the 62-17 rout of Mercer in Week 13, as Auburn gained 75% of available yards.
Quarterback Deuce Knight lit up the Bears for six all-purpose touchdowns, while racking up 152 rushing yards and 239 passing yards.
The Auburn defense continues to be one of the best in the nation against the rush, ranking second in Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
The Tigers have shut down any opponent using counter, man or outside-zone run concepts.
Passing explosives have been a sensitive area against Auburn's nickel secondary, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA allowed. The secondary has been leaky at times, owning a bottom-25 rank in broken and missed tackles allowed.
Auburn’s defense has been sturdy in standard downs but falls to 88th in Success Rate when opponents get behind the chains.
Alabama vs Auburn Prediction
There's no expectation that either rushing attack will produce against the opposing defense.
Alabama has struggled to generate any success on the ground and should find little traction against Auburn's front.
Meanwhile, the Tide have dominated opposing rushing attacks, but the insertion of Knight into the Auburn offense should be a significant issue for the Crimson Tide.
Mobile quarterbacks have destroyed Alabama’s defense this season. South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Missouri's Beau Pribula and Florida State's Tommy Castellanos have all run for a score against the Tide.
The good news for Alabama is that only 33 of Knight’s rushing yards last week came on three designed attempts. If the Crimson Tide can contain him in the pocket, there won't be many options for the Auburn offense.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings pin this game at Alabama -6, giving no value to the current market offerings.
However, the change at quarterback for Auburn will generate explosive scrambles against the Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide rank 127th in opponent rush explosives, a major concern against Knight’s dual-threat ability.
On the other side of the ball, expect Simpson to attack through the air after the Tide found limited success on the ground.
Auburn’s leaky secondary ranks 85th in creating a contested catch, an issue that will arise with Simpson’s accuracy. Look for both offenses to get into scoring position often, as the projected total for this game comes in at 52 points.
With Auburn's struggles in pass defense, a Cuevas anytime touchdown prop is also live.
Pick: Over 46.5 · Josh Cuevas Anytime TD (+310)
