Welcome to the final regular-season week of the college football season.
It's a bittersweet moment. We're sad it's over, but thank you for coming along for the ride.
We still have plenty of work to do, starting with our college football best bets for Black Friday.
Check out our five favorite Friday picks below.
College Football Picks for Black Friday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Black Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
 | Noon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Pick
By Stuckey
I'm almost always interested in the Egg Bowl underdog, and that's no different this year.
You can throw any motivational angle out the window. Both of these teams won't be lacking in that department for an in-state rivalry.
Plus, the Rebels can lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory, while the Bulldogs can clinch a bowl bid one season following a two-win campaign.
From a pure numbers perspective, I do project this right around a touchdown, so I was fine taking the hook here.
Plus, there's at least some chance that all of the hoopla surrounding Lane Kiffin serves as a major distraction for his team ahead of this game. We've certainly seen his teams flop as favorites, costing themselves in the past. Look no further than last season when a more talented Ole Miss squad lost twice as double-digit favorites to Florida and Kentucky, which ultimately cost it a berth in the playoff.
And it's not like the Rebels haven't flirted with disaster this season. They do have five one-possession wins across one of the easiest SEC schedules, including four against Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, and Washington State — not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. Even the corpse of Florida put a little bit of a scare into the Rebels in their most recent outing.
I also believe this is a prime opportunity to buy low on the Bulldogs after back-to-back blowout losses to Georgia and Missouri before the bye week, which they desperately needed.
Mississippi State doesn't have the bodies capable of surviving long stretches of SEC play without wearing down, so the extra week of preparation and rest should serve them well following a brutal seven-game stretch that capped off one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the nation to date.
Keep in mind, Mississippi State already upset a healthy Arizona State team at home earlier this season and arguably should have beaten Tennessee and Texas if not for a pair of blown leads that went to overtime. And if they don't throw an interception late at Florida in field goal range, they win in Gainesville, also.
The Bulldogs are just a few bounces away from being 8-3 across a much more difficult schedule than Ole Miss.
From a matchup perspective, it's hard to envision Mississippi State getting many consistent stops (especially on the ground). Still, the defense should at least come into this matchup as healthy (and fresh) as it has been in quite some time.
More importantly, its own rushing attack should get going in this matchup, which is when Jeff Lebby's offense operates at peak efficiency. On the season, Ole Miss ranks outside the top-100 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and can be pushed around at the point of attack.
That is music to Lebby's ears.
I'll take over a touchdown with the home pup that should be able to move the ball consistently. I can already hear the cow bells.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 14 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (-120) or Better
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Texas A&M vs. Texas Pick
The first handicap in the Lone Star Showdown revolves around the Texas defense stopping Texas A&M's elite passing attack.
The Longhorns have been fantastic against wide receiver screens and crossing routes, two of the Aggies' most utilized routes.
Marcel Reed has been middle-of-the-pack in terms of success against Cover 1, a coverage package heavily used by Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.
Texas also fields a much better defense in tackle grading and broken tackles allowed, sitting top-12 of all FBS teams in both categories.
The same can't be said about a Texas A&M defense with poor tackling analytics, including a rank outside the top 100 in broken tackles allowed.
Arch Manning will see plenty of Cover 3 from the Aggies, which could force shorter routes in the slot to DeAndre Moore Jr., who averages an explosive 2.2 yards per route run.
Second-level tackling will allow the Longhorns to get into scoring position, an area where both teams have struggled. Texas' offense and Texas A&M's defense both rank outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives.
The best avenue for scoring could be Manning's pass explosives, with the 'Horns ranking 10th nationally in Pass EPA. Methodicals may be out of question for the Texas offense, as the A&M defense ranks in the top 25 in limiting quality drives.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings have Texas A&M favored by two points, in line with the current market.
Any move back to +3 on the number would be a buy on the Longhorns, but there may be room to purchase in the total market.
The Aggies and Longhorns each have advantages with pass explosives. Texas A&M will be limited in crossers and wide receiver screens, but the Aggies' most utilized and advantageous route is the hitch.
There may not be a better hitch or curl route runner in the nation than KC Concepcion, who has posted a receiving touchdown in 7-of-11 Texas A&M games this season.
Check out Collin's full Texas A&M-Texas breakdown and more in his Week 14 Card:
Pick: Texas +2.5 or Better | Over 51.5 or Better | KC Conception Anytime TD
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San Diego State vs. New Mexico Pick
Die-hard Group of 5 fans know the biggest game of the weekend takes place in Albuquerque.
The winner of this game locks in a spot in the Mountain West Championship game, a massive turnaround for both programs.
San Diego State has had success behind its elite defense.
Sound familiar for the Aztecs? They rank seventh nationally in Success Rate allowed and have been utterly dominant. San Diego State has allowed 4.0 yards per play to opponents this season, third in the country.
You name it, they do it well.
The Aztecs sit in the top 15 against the run and the pass. They prevent explosives. They rank second nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Trey White is one of the best edge rushers in the country, and Owen Chambliss has been a tackling machine in the middle of the field.
On the back end, cornerback Chris Johnson has been fantastic and has the best Coverage Grade among all cornerbacks in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.
This defense is elite from back to front.
While the defense is the calling card, the offense is just fine, too.
The Aztecs run the ball at a top 10 rate behind back Lucky Sutton. He ranks ninth nationally with 1,127 yards this season and averages over 5.1 yards per carry.
Sutton stirs the drink on offense, but Jayden Denegal has done his part when asked. He is not the most prolific passer, but he can pick up enough big plays to keep teams from cheating against the run. San Diego State sits 12th nationally in passing explosives.
New Mexico is having a great season as well and does a lot of great things under Jason Eck, but the Aztecs' defense will be the best unit in this game by a wide margin.
San Diego State plays defense, runs the ball effectively, and picks up key explosives through the air. The Aztecs don’t turn the ball over and limit bad penalties.
Not only have the Aztecs rattled off nine wins this season, but they have also been throttling teams in victory. Their nine wins this season have come by an average margin of 22.8. Sean Lewis’s team is 9-2 against the spread this season, and 8-1 covering as a favorite.
Pick: San Diego State -2 or Better
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Indiana vs. Purdue Player Prop Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Recency bias has come into play as Indiana wide receiver Charlie Becker is being given too much love for his performances the past two weeks.
Becker has racked up 208 yards receiving on 12 catches across his past two games.
However, the Hoosiers were missing two of their top targets in Elijah Sarratt and E.J. Williams Jr. Their absences shot Becker up the depth chart, and to his credit, he stepped up.
Sarratt is confirmed to return, and Williams Jr. is questionable, which means Becker is due for a reduced role in this matchup.
Before these last two weeks, Becker had only seen two or more targets twice across nine games.
So, while his recent efforts are commendable, it's likely we'll see him go back to being an afterthought in the Indiana passing attack.
Pick: Charlie Becker Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
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Ohio vs. Buffalo Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In college football, contrarian underdogs thrive when the betting line moves against them.
When spreads shift by several points from open to close, it often reflects heavy public or sharp money fading the dog, inflating the line, and creating hidden value on the moneyline.
In games where the spread is moderate to large, between four and just over 13, these underdogs are often overlooked but capable of outright wins.
The inflated perception of the favorite can lead to mispriced odds, and the contrarian angle looks to capitalize on those rare moments when the market has overcorrected.
Underdogs that fit the system this season are 35-58 outright, a 38% win rate generating a 28% ROI.
Want more Action PRO systems? Get an Action PRO subscription today via our Black Friday sale:
Pick: Buffalo ML (+210)
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Duck's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Black Friday's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Duck is betting on! He's got you covered for all the college football and college basketball action.
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure to download the Action Network App to track all your bets and follow your favorite experts.
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