The Air Force Falcons take on the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins on Friday, Nov. 28. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
Air Force is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Colorado State, meanwhile, enters as a +2 favorite and is +115 on the moneyline to pull odd the upset. The total is set at 46 points.
Here’s my Air Force vs. Colorado State prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 28.
Air Force vs Colorado State Prediction
- Air Force vs. Colorado State Pick: Under 46.5 · Air Force Team Total Under 23.5
My Colorado State vs. Air Force best bet is on both teams to go under the total and the Falcons to stay under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs Colorado State Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -115 | 46 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -105 | 46 -110o / -110u | +115 |
- Air Force vs Colorado State Spread: Air Force -2, Colorado State +2
- Air Force vs Colorado State Over/Under: 46 Points
- Air Force vs Colorado State Moneyline: Air Force -135, Colorado State +115
Air Force vs Colorado State College Football Betting Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Improved Defense Props Up Team
Air Force comes into this one off another disappointing loss, this time in its home finale against New Mexico by a score of 20-3.
Without starting quarterback Liam Szarka, the Falcons offense struggled mightily, amassing just 161 total yards and 14 first downs.
Both Josh Johnson and converted fullback Kemper Hodges combined to complete 4-of-11 passes for 51 yards, and Hodges was the team’s leading rusher with 50 total yards.
This Air Force offense mimicked the anemic 2024 version that couldn't score and had zero offensive zest. I expect this group to struggle badly in this matchup on the road against Colorado State.
The Flyboy defense continues to improve in the second half of the season, as Air Force limited New Mexico to 20 points and 277 yards while surrendering only two explosive plays in the game.
Air Force had one of the worst defenses in the country in the first half of the season, but it hasn’t allowed any opponent to score more than 26 points in a game in five weeks.
I expect this defense to be locked in against a struggling Colorado State offense.
Colorado State Rams Betting Preview: Hampered by Coaching and Personnel Issues
Colorado State has been one of the more disappointing teams in the Mountain West this season.
Former quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is no longer with the team, and the Rams fired head coach Jay Norvell. The program had been searching for answers and improvement on the field during most of his tenure in Fort Collins.
The dynamic offense that he coined at Nevada never manifested itself into anything significant, and the development of the quarterbacks simply wasn’t there.
The Rams' QB play has been horrible this season, and that's a huge driver behind Colorado State's 2-9 record.
Defensively, the Rams haven’t played too badly at times this season, but they can't put it together for four quarters and were routinely shredded by the better teams in the league.
CSU struggles to tackle, and its pass rush has been virtually nonexistent. The coverage unit has struggled as a result, as no pressure has been put on opposing quarterbacks.
While the pass defense likely won't be tested against Air Force, the Rams are going to have their hands full with defending the triple option.
Air Force vs Colorado State Pick, Betting Analysis
The total in this game has been bet down from 49.5 at open down to 46.5, and I agree with the move. I'll have two bets in this one: under 46.5 and Air Force team total under 23.5.
We've seen the formula for Air Force since Szarka went out with an injury in the second half against UConn.
The offense relies heavily on the fullback dive, with some QB follow off it. The Falcons have very little explosiveness out of their slot backs, and no one other than Szarka averaged more than 60 rushing yards per game.
The passing game was so critical to Air Force's offensive success. They routinely connected on deep shots, opening up holes in the run game and setting up QB action for Szarka to create with his legs. His absence in this game is monumental.
Air Force operates at a slow pace, ranking 119th in tempo and just 81st in explosiveness on offense. We likely won't see the pop in the run game here, and I anticipate the clock to move pretty heavily with the Falcons' 75% rush rate.
They simply don't have a capable passing quarterback capable of setting up and delivering the ball on time with precision.
On the other side, it looks like Colorado State will start quarterback Tahj Bullock, who transferred in from Akron this season and hasn't completed a pass.
He's a running quarterback, and the game plan will assuredly be to run the ball plenty. CSU ranks 66th nationally in Rushing Success Rate, and while it's not explosive, the ground attack could have success against the Air Force defense.
I anticipate Colorado State to slow the pace down significantly in this one with a new quarterback in a rivalry game. Bullock doesn’t have experience in this offense, and as the fourth-string QB, he likely hasn't taken many reps with the first team.
This is going to be a game filled with running plays that could be effective and result in some long drives, but we won't see many explosives.
I expect Air Force’s offense to look a lot like it did last week and most of last year — void of explosiveness and offensive zest.
This game has all the makings of a slow-burning defensive grinder with a quick-moving clock. Grab the under and the Air Force team total under while you're at it.
Pick: Under 46.5 · Air Force Team Total Under 23.5
Air Force vs Colorado State Betting Trends
