The No. 16 Texas Longhorns (8-3, 5-2 SEC) host the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (11-0, 7-0 SEC) in a top-20 SEC college football showdown on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas has been a bit up and down in recent weeks, much like quarterback Arch Manning's performances.
He had a great game in a 34-31 win over a ranked Vanderbilt team, then had a bit of a clunker in a 35-10 loss to Georgia before another fantastic performance in a 52-37 victory over Arkansas.
Texas A&M, meanwhile, has been fantastic in racking up a perfect record through 11 games.
However, the Aggies have played a number of close games, most recently against South Carolina in which A&M had to come back from a 30-3 halftime deficit to win, 31-30.
With a spread of 2.5, we're bound to see another tight one in this Rivalry Week showdown.
So, where does the value lie? Let's dive into our Texas vs. Texas A&M picks and college football predictions for Week 14 on Friday, Nov. 28.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
Our staff here is heavily in favor of Texas A&M to cover the spread, and I see absolutely no reason to disagree. In fact, I think this game should be closer to a touchdown.
The short spread here is a combination of the first half of Texas' game against Arkansas, as well as name recognition for the Longhorns.
After a rough start, Texas seemingly bounced back with wins over top-10 (at the time) Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. However, it came crashing back down to reality against Georgia, when its early-season issues reared their head again.
Those issues are mainly on offense. While I maintain that Arch Manning would be looked at as a promising young quarterback instead of a bust in earlier eras of college football, the Horns struggle to move the ball against good defenses.
Make no mistake about it — this A&M defense is very good. The Aggies rank:
- 6th in Success Rate allowed
- 4th in Havoc
- 1st in third-down defense
- 11th in PFF pass rush grade
- 14th in overall PFF defensive grade
Expect Manning to struggle to keep this offense in front of the sticks, as he has all season (89th in standard down rate). I think the Aggies are going to jump him.
The biggest difference between these two teams is:
- Their ability to stay in front of the chains consistently (favors Aggies)
- Their ability to score in the red zone (favors Aggies)
Texas A&M ranks 25th in Points Per Opportunity, while Texas ranks 91st in Points Per Opportunity allowed. I don’t think this will be a barnburner, as A&M is clearly the better team.
Over/Under Pick
Over 52.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 52.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 52.5
As mentioned above, this Texas A&M team fields a very good defense, but that alone isn’t enough for our staff to back the under.
While Texas A&M may have the better unit, that doesn't mean the Longhorns defense is bad. Far from it, actually.
Texas ranks:
- 49th in Success Rate allowed
- 23rd in Havoc
- 24th in third-down defense
- 12th in PFF defensive rushing grade
- 19th in PFF defensive grade
Not only do both these teams field good defenses, but their offensive profiles favor a low-scoring game.
While Texas throws the ball more (35th in pass rate), that doesn't mean it does it effectively. In fact, the Longhorns come into this game at just 89th in Passing Success Rate. Meanwhile, Texas A&M ranks eighth in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Expect more of the same from Arch Manning: flashes of a very talented college quarterback buried by inconsistency under pressure.
On the other side, the Aggies do move the ball well (23rd in Offensive Success Rate), but they're not a rushed team. They rank 89th in tempo and 35th in rush rate, meaning they'll likely keep the ball on the ground.
They're also good at it, ranking 37th in Rushing Success Rate. Look for Texas A&M to run the ball early and often, especially if it establishes a lead in the second half.
Meanwhile, Texas’ offense will be too inconsistent to get into a groove — just as it has against all good defenses it's played.
I’m tailing our staff here and expecting a low-scoring game.
Player Prop Pick
Emmett Mosley V Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 48.5)
By Alex Hinton
Though some have already deemed Arch Manning a flop, the Longhorns' signal-caller has thrown for 250 passing yards or more in each of his last four games. One receiver he has connected with of late is Emmett Mosley V.
The Stanford transfer didn't record a catch until October this season, but he's now up to 22 receptions for 348 yards and three touchdowns on the year.
He has gone over 50 yards in each of his last four games, including 60 or more in each of the last three. Texas has scored 34 points in three of those games as well.
Though the Aggies are undefeated, they're just 131st in passing explosiveness allowed.
Against South Carolina, they allowed two passing touchdowns of 50 yards or more. They've also given up 50 receiving yards to multiple receivers in four of their last five SEC games.
Manning has spread the ball around of late, as three Texas receivers have surpassed 50 yards or more in three of its last four games. If that's the case again, Mosley will likely be one of them.
Texas vs. Texas A&M Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
- Texas vs. Texas A&M Spread: Texas +2.5, Texas A&M -2.5
- Texas vs. Texas A&M Over/Under: 52.5
- Texas vs. Texas A&M Moneyline: Texas ML +110, Texas A&M ML -130
