College Football PrizePicks: Week 4 Plays for Will Shipley, Tez Johnson & Nick Singleton (Sept. 23)
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton.
We’re on a 5-1 run playing college football squares, but we’re changing things up this week.
This week, instead of a quarterback-only card, we zero in on the skill positions.
All three players will be facing top-25 competition on national TV, and all three have numbers off by more than 15% compared to my projections.
Week 4 College Football PrizePicks
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's PrizePicks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Florida State vs. Clemson
I was surprised to see this square below 20, given Garrett Riley’s utilization of his star running back through three games.
Shipley has been targeted 11 times in three games and hasn’t played in the fourth quarter in the past two weeks due to blowout wins over Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic.
Shipley is an experienced route runner with 65 career receptions, and Riley loves to get his backs involved in the passing game with swing passes and screens as a counter to defensive pressure.
Florida State ranks tenth nationally in pressures created through three games, which could necessitate more check-down throws to Shipley as Cade Klubnik’s safety blanket in this game. According to PFF, the Noles have blitzed on 27.4% of their defensive snaps, above the national average of roughly 23%.
Then there’s the Phil Mafah factor. The junior power back has 25 carries and three scores already this season, freeing Shipley up for more of an “all-purpose” role in the offense.
Last season, Mafah and DJ Uiagalelei combined to carry it 20 times against the Seminoles. That freed Shipley up for a larger role in the passing game, and he responded with six receptions and 48 yards.
I see a similar script unfolding against the Seminoles, who LSU’s Tre Bradford burned on a wheel route to start the game in the opener. That 55-yard catch and run is how Riley will look to attack an FSU defense that looked vulnerable against Boston College last week.
Pick: Shipley More Than 19.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 23.5)
Colorado vs. Oregon
This play is predicated on the Travis Hunter trickle-down effect.
The Heisman candidate is sidelined with a lacerated liver, forcing Colorado to shuffle the deck in their secondary. That’s terrible news for the Buffaloes, who were already 119th in defensive success rate against the pass.
Freshmen Carter Stoutmire, Jaden Milliner-Jones and Cormani McClain could see the field for their first significant action of the season after Coach Prime promised a “corner-by-committee" approach. McClain seems to be at the bottom of the depth chart, but CU doesn’t have the depth to rule anyone out.
This news is fantastic for Johnson, who will draw CB2 and Nickelback assignments opposite Troy Franklin on Saturday. The Troy transfer is off his biggest game as a Duck, a 4/77/2 performance against Hawai’i in which he was targeted six times in seven drives before getting pulled along with the other starters.
In two games at Oregon, he’s already corralled passes of 28 and 49 yards, in line with the big-play ability he demonstrated at Troy. Johnson had a six-game stretch last season with the Trojans in which he caught at least one pass of 30+ yards.
With a receiving total this low and his targets on the rise in the past two weeks, I would play this up to 51.5 yards.
Pick: Johnson More Than 47.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 51.5)
Iowa vs. Penn State
Singleton is a versatile weapon, which explains why he’s on the Paul Hornung Award watch list. But from a pure rushing perspective, he’s no sure thing to top fifty yards in this game on the ground against Iowa.
There are two equally important reasons for this.
The first is Singleton’s timeshare with fellow sophomore back Kaytron Allen. And the second is Iowa’s run defense.
Singleton has now played in ten Big Ten games, averaging 12.8 carries for 70.3 yards. He’s gone above this rushing total five times and failed to reach it five times. The issue this season is that Singleton has six fewer carries than backfield mate Allen (42 to 36), and the coaching staff seems hellbent on utilizing backup quarterback Beau Pribula as well. Pribula racked up nine fourth-quarter carries against Illinois last week as Penn State sat back and protected its 23-point lead. This is particularly damaging to an over counting on the potential for garbage time yardage.
Second, there’s Iowa's run defense.
Last season, Iowa had the second-best run defense from a yards-per-carry perspective (2.8 YPC). This year, they’ve eliminated long runs, checking in fifth nationally in limiting rushing explosives. If you take out a 29-yard scramble by Western Michigan’s quarterback Treyson Bourguet last week, they’ve given up just three rushes of 11+ yards to running backs all season long, two occurring in garbage time.
Without the benefit of free yards late, this number screams under. I’d play it down to 63.5.
Pick: Singleton Less Than 65.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 63.5)
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