College Football Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting 4 Saturday Games

College Football Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting 4 Saturday Games article feature image
Credit:

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Calvert

  • College football sharp bettors are hitting several games on Saturday's slate, including Auburn vs. Florida.
  • The Action Network's tools reveal the five matchups they've hit hardest in Week 6.

If you’ve followed along with these sharp reports in the past, you know by now that the pros couldn’t care less about the magnitude of the games they’re betting. Most of the matchups on this week’s card will confirm that, but sharps have also treated us to some activity on both the side and total of Saturday’s biggest game.

Perhaps because the influx of recreational bettors has led to some line value, Auburn vs. Florida has been among the five games drawing the most pro action in Week 6.

Also in the mix:

  • Illinois @ Minnesota (3:30 p.m. ET)
  • Arkansas State @ Georgia State (3:30 p.m. ET)
  • Memphis @ UL Monroe (3:45 p.m. ET)
  • Liberty @ New Mexico State (8 p.m. ET)

Odds as of Friday at 3:40 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Auburn @ Florida

3:30 p.m. ET | CBS

This game is raking in bets at 1.5 times the rate of the next most heavily-bet game Saturday (Iowa-Michigan), which makes the 77% backing of Auburn an even more telling figure.

It also has forced oddsmakers to list a slightly inflated line in order to limit their liability on the Tigers. Based on the sharp action hitting this game it would certainly seem that way.

Most books opened at Auburn -2.5, but the heavy backing caused an early move to -3. Being the most important number in football betting, that’s the one that wiseguys have been hitting.

As a result of the sharp-public disagreement, this line has been moving back and forth throughout the week, but the most recent move from 3 to 2.5 has finally stuck for more than 24 hours.

From the time this spread was released, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track and record market moves caused by sharp action — have triggered 10 moves on Florida, seven of which have come since Wednesday (all at +3).

There’s been just one Auburn move over that span.

The total has sharps and squares equally as disjointed, as the number is rising against a 76% backing of the under. The 24% of bettors on the over have generated 40% of actual money being wagered on the total, and eight Bet Signals have helped propel it from 46.5 to 48.5.

Sharp angles: Florida (moved from +3 to +2.5), Over (moved from 46.5 to 48.5)

Illinois @ Minnesota

3:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network

The only other Power 5 game to land on Saturday’s report comes by way of the Big Ten, and once again SI Bet Signals have left no question as to which bet the pros are making.

There’s yet to be a single move to hit a side of this spread, but five have landed on the total — all of which have come on the under.

Only 46% of overall tickets have also taken the under, but that professional action has driven the line from an opener of around 61 to a consensus 57.5.

As for the Bet Signals themselves, the moves began at 60.5, and most recently hit the under at 58, resulting in the currently offered number.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 61 to 57.5)

Arkansas State @ Georgia State

3:30 p.m. ET| ESPN+

Depending on the book, this game opened either at a touchdown or slightly beyond at +7.5. In either case, the sharp side has been has been the same.

Most bettors, 78% to be exact, have laid the points with the road team, but actual money has been much more balanced. Georgia State’s 22% backing has accounted for 52% of actual money being bet, meaning the bigger wagers — ones more likely from sharps — have come on the dog.

SI Bet Signals have done their part in confirming that sharps are rolling with Georgia State. They’ve triggered 13 moves on the Panthers since opening (seven at +7.5, six at +7) to get this line within a touchdown. It’s worth noting, though, that we’ve yet to see another signal since the line was brought inside the key number.

Sharp angle: Georgia State (moved from +7.5 to +6.5)

Memphis @ UL Monroe

3:45 p.m. ET | ESPNU

In many cases, like the ones listed above, the overall line movement from the opening number can serve as a starting point in deducing how sharps are betting. In cases like Saturday’s Memphis-UL Monroe game, it’s not quite so straightforward.

Memphis has moved from an opener of -13.5 to -14.5 behind 77% of bets, but this line has gone on a bit more than just a one-point ride.

After opening just inside two touchdowns, the Tigers’ popularity sent them all the way up to -16.5, which is when sharps finally decided they’d seen enough. Since that point, UL Monroe has drawn five SI Bet Signals, though none of which have come at a number less than +16.

Still, the sharp action has given oddsmakers no choice but to revert back toward the opening number, even though it’s giving the majority of their bettors an easier win.

Sharp angle: UL Monroe (moved from +16.5 to +14.5)

Liberty @ New Mexico State

8 p.m. ET | FloSports

Oh, how we’ve fallen from that Auburn-Florida matchup. We’re now tracking how sharps are betting a game being televised on … FloSports. I have no idea how our app even knows what that is.

Proving that they’ll bet anything that offers value, sharps have come down hard on New Mexico State in this matchup. The Aggies opened as 5-point underdogs, and their “popularity” (68% of bets) had them up to +6.5, and even +7 in a few spots. But that was too many points for wiseguys.

Since that point, New Mexico State has drawn 12 SI Bet Signals at numbers coming down to +4.5. Liberty has not seen a single one.

Behind all the professional money, the Aggies have been brought back through their opening number to +4.

Sharp angle: New Mexico State (moved from +6.5 to +4)

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