College Football Sharp Report: Pros Betting Ole Miss-LSU, 4 Other Games

Sep 29, 2018 10:39 AM EDT
  • Before placing your Week 5 college football bets, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success.
  • Their favorite Week 5 plays include bets on Texas Tech-West Virginia and Ole Miss-LSU.

If you’ve stopped by this sharp report before, you know the spiel by now. In case you haven’t, here’s the deal:

“Sharps” are bettors with long track records of consistent success. And when I say long, I’m talking several years — decades even. When a sharp places a bet, books take notice and often adjust their lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine which bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the percentage of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the Week 5 games drawing the most action from wiseguys.


>> All odds as of Friday at 4 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets.


All games Saturday Sept. 29. All line moves from Pinnacle.

West Virginia @ Texas Tech

12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Texas Tech (moved from +4 to +3.5)

Texas Tech is coming off an impressive 41-17 victory at Oklahoma State — a game in which the Red Raiders were 14.5-point underdogs.

Public bettors, though, still aren’t sold on Tech. They’ve taken a slight liking to the higher-ranked Mountaineers, who’ve received 53% of bets to this point.

Fifty-four percent of dollars wagered, however, have landed on Texas Tech — an indication that bigger, most likely sharper, wagers are behind the Raiders. Texas Tech has also been on the receiving end of seven steam moves, although it’s worth noting that the worst number to get steamed was +4.

Oklahoma State @ Kansas

12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Kansas (stayed at +17)

Clearly sharps took a lot away from last week’s Oklahoma State loss. While 80% of the public is betting on the Cowboys to rebound with a 17-point win, sharp money on the Jayhawks has kept this line from moving up.

Kansas has attracted 64% of dollars despite only 20% of bets, and has drawn nine steam moves throughout the week, including four at the current line of +17.

South Alabama @ Appalachian State

3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 59.5 to 57)

It won’t be drawing many eyes to the television on Saturday, but this matchup has drawn plenty of sharp attention to the under. Sharp bettors have steamed the under on six separate occasions, causing this line to fall 2.5 points at Pinnacle.

It hasn’t mattered that 65% of bettors are taking the over, either, as 57% of money wagered on the total has come on the under.

Utah @ Washington State

6 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Utah (moved from +2 to -2)

Utah has jumped the fence from dog to favorite in this game, but it’s not because the Utes are the more popular bet. In fact, they’re getting only 40% of tickets to this point.

They have, however, accounted for 53% of dollars wagered, an indication that sharps are behind them. They’ve also drawn three steam moves, although none has come since the Utes moved off a pick’em.

Ole Miss @ LSU

9:15 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Ole Miss (moved from +13.5 to +9.5)

Following LSU’s impressive stretch of four wins to open the season, it’s no surprise to see two-thirds of the public backing the Tigers at home on Saturday night.

Despite that backing, more money (51%) has actually come on the Rebels, who’ve moved from +13.5 to +9.5 thanks to wiseguy action.

Sharps have triggered steam moves on Ole Miss three times, helping to bring this line down four points.

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue
THE ACTION NETWORK

Sign up for The Action Network free daily newsletter

The best sports betting trends, insights and news - condensed into a two-minute read.
Sign up today, thank us tomorrow.
Follow Us: @ActionNetworkHQ
Download the App