The Villanova Wildcats take on the Tarleton State Texans in the quarterfinals of the FCS Playoffs on Saturday, Dec. 13. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Tarleton State is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -440. Villanova, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +340 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Villanova vs Tarleton State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 13.
Villanova vs Tarleton State Prediction
- Villanova vs. Tarleton State Pick: Tarleton State -12.5
My Tarleton State vs. Villanova best bet is on the Texans to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Villanova vs Tarleton State Odds
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Tarleton State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -440 |
- Villanova vs Tarleton State Spread: Villanova +12.5, Tarleton State -12.5
- Villanova vs Tarleton State Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Villanova vs Tarleton State Moneyline: Villanova +340, Tarleton State -440
Villanova vs Tarleton State FCS Playoffs Preview
Villanova Wildcats Betting Preview: Offense Will Struggle
Villanova benefitted tremendously last week from Lehigh miscues, fumbles and red-zone mishaps, and the Wildcats defense stepped up in crucial moments for a 14-7 win.
The defense did well to limit explosive plays against Lehigh, but the Mountain Hawks still ran the ball effectively and had four red-zone trips in the contest, three of which resulted in turnovers.
The Villanova defense has been strong this season against fellow CAA opponents, and the Wildcats did well against Harvard in the opening round of the FCS Playoffs. This unit is going to have to play its best game of the season in order to stay in this one.
The offense also really struggled against a feisty Lehigh defense, as the ground attack could never get going. Nova ran for just 27 total yards on 1.0 yards per carry without registering an explosive rushing attempt.
Quarterback Pat McQuaide threw the ball well, but Villanova generated just one play over 20 yards while struggling on third down.
This offense is going to have its work cut out for it this week against a Tarleton State team that has looked impressive most of the way this season.
Tarleton State Texans Betting Preview: Defense Dominating Oppositon
Tarleton State has positioned itself as the next great program at the FCS level.
The Texans have the resources, facilities and on-field performance necessary to catapult their program, and I expect this group to become a household name in FCS football for years to come.
This year, Tarleton State has dominated most of its competition, defeated an FBS team on the road and completely dominated a Missouri Valley Conference opponent in the playoffs last week.
The Texans are a legitimate threat to claim the FCS National Championship.
The Tarleton offense is very balanced and efficient, both running and throwing the ball. Tarleton State averages 44 points and 473 total yards per game, led by quarterback Victor Gabalis, who has thrown for nearly 2,700 yards and 28 touchdowns this season.
The Texans have five receivers who average over 15 yards per reception, and the running back room is loaded with explosive ball-carriers. I expect this group to have a strong showing at home on Saturday afternoon.
The defense has been a completely dominant force this season.
The Texans are great at creating negative plays and forcing the opposition into mistakes. TSU has forced a whopping 38 turnovers this season, including 23 interceptions.
This front seven can get after opposing quarterbacks, and the run-stopping unit has stepped up tremendously in recent weeks.
If Nova is to compete and keep this game close, it's going to have to play its best game of the season.
Villanova vs Tarleton State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened Tarleton State -7.5 and has steamed all week to a current line of -12.5. I agree with the move and will back the Texans.
Villanova might be in some major trouble here.
The Wildcats likely won't be able to run the football effectively, and this Tarleton State defensive front is going to be too physical and too fast for Villanova to operate on the ground.
For Nova to move the ball, it's going to have to see McQuaide play elite football and make tough downfield throws with extreme levels of precision.
I'm not convinced that Villanova has the talent at wide receiver to win one-on-one battles and make tough contested catches against Kasyus Kurns, Blake Smith or Ja’Voni Melidor.
I can see Nova having to force the issue in the second half to try to stay in this game, and this Texans defense should do what it has done all season: force pressure and turnovers.
Gabalis and this Texans offense will move it here, and I expect Tarleton State to score a lot of points. There are too many weapons for Nova to contend with, and the speed along the outside will be a problem for the Wildcats' secondary.
I don’t think Villanova can keep up here, and anything under two touchdowns is a bargain.
Pick: Tarleton State -12.5
