The Navy Midshipmen (9-2, 7-1) take on the Army Black Knights (6-5, 4-4 American) in the annual Army-Navy game on Saturday, Dec. 13, at 3 p.m. ET on CBS.
This marks one of the best rivalries in college football.
Although the LA Bowl and FCS Playoffs are also taking place on Saturday, nothing quite compares to the tradition and pageantry of America's Game.
Navy leads the all-time series, 63-55-7, and picked up a 31-13 victory last season in one of the more lopsided results in recent years. However, Army has won 2 of the last 3.
Navy enters as a -6 favorite, but is that where the value lies?
We polled 10 of our college football writers to get their takes on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Navy vs. Army picks and college football predictions for America's Game on Saturday, Dec. 13.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Army +6
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff is almost evenly split on the Army-Navy point spread with an ever-so-slight lean toward the underdog.
If you’ve sided with the underdog, it’s felt a lot better than siding with the favorite of late.
Although ‘dogs and favorites are split 3-3-1 against the spread over the last seven games, ‘dogs have won outright twice in the last three years and five times in the last nine.
Last year, Navy quarterback Blake Horvath led a massive 31-13 upset over sixth-place Heisman finisher Bryson Daily and Army as a +6.5 underdog.
The calculus here is simple: In typically lower-scoring affairs, the underdog fares much better on the spread than the favorite. Last year’s game was the first to cross 40 points since 2013, and 10 of the last 14 games finished within one score.
Horvath returns and, based on last year, that should mean Navy runs away with one again… right?
This setup is almost exactly the same as last year, but with reversed roles. Horvath is instead the star commodity, and it’s now Army that boasts the under-the-radar athlete at quarterback in Cade Hellums.
Since Hellums, a junior, took over in Week 4, Army has gone 5-2 outright and fared better in one-score games (3-2 vs. 1-2 prior).
It’s an offense that runs a bit smoother, even if there’s not a significant shift in points scored. Hellums (1,068 yards and 15 touchdowns) is also the better athlete.
But Army’s defense is a real problem. It allows a quality drive on 54.5% of opposing possessions, the sixth-worst rate nationally. It ranks 102nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 128th in Success Rate per play, though the red-zone defense has held up.
Navy’s red-zone offense is the worst aspect of its offense. Without the ability to hit on explosive vertical shots, the offense is surprisingly handicapped, at least for an option-dominant team.
Our staff’s split on the spread makes sense.
On one hand, you have a Navy offense that’s more than capable of moving the ball and connecting on explosive plays, at least on paper. On the other hand, Army has a significantly improved offense under Hellums, and the red-zone defense has been a real strength against a Navy offense that’s less-than-perfect nearing the goal line.
But when all is said and done, we give a slight lean to the 'dog with such a low total.
Over/Under Pick
Over 38 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 38 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 38
By Road to CFB
Did you know the under in games between service academies is 46-12-1 since 2005? I’m sure you did — the Army-Navy under is about as famous as the rivalry itself.
But did you know that the under hasn’t hit here since 2021?
Not-so-coincidentally, 2022 marked a paradigm shift for all triple-option teams when the NCAA cracked down on cut blocks and ultimately took out a massive staple to the traditional option offense.
Both offenses evolved, and Navy shifted to a more spread and modern approach to the option under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.
So, yes, the under still reigns historically supreme, and it’ll take a long time for that trend to disappear. But the modern game between Army and Navy may not be as cut and dry as "hammer the under and kick back." (Also see: Air Force’s 132nd-ranked defense in Points Per Drive allowed.)
The Action Network staff is fairly divided on this total with a slight lean toward the over.
Navy’s offense under Horvath is potent and among the nation’s most efficient on a per-drive basis (12th in scoring).
Slot Eli Heidenreich, the Midshipmen’s all-time leading receiver, adds a dynamic vertical threat to the offense, while Alex Tecza is perhaps the most explosive fullback Navy has seen in a decade. Horvath, as dynamic a rusher as he is, can really spin the ball, too.
Navy’s defense is also less-than-stellar, sitting 102nd in Success Rate allowed and 110th in Points Per Drive allowed.
Army’s defensive front has been pushed around. It lands in the bottom 40 in Line Yards and 121st in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
With how intimately familiar these teams are with each other, this game oftentimes comes down to whose men push whose around. Advantage: Navy’s offense.
But much of the hesitancy for the over comes because, (a) this is the game’s second-highest total since 2020, (b) out-manned or not, these teams know what an option offense doesn’t want to see, and (c) despite attempting the most rushes per game, Army ranks just 67th in total Rushing EPA.
If Army hangs in there, it’s likely due to controlling the ball and extending drives. The Black Knights defense can be exploited with downfield passing, and the more opportunities given to Horvath, the more likely he is to connect on a shot play.
Lean Army in the game? You’re probably siding with the under thanks to its familiarity with the option and its ability to hold Navy’s offense in check.
If you’re on the Navy side, it’s probably because Horvath is leading an explosive attack, and the over is certainly in play.
Navy vs. Army Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- Navy vs. Army Spread: Navy -6, Army +6
- Navy vs. Army Over/Under: 38
- Navy vs. Army Moneyline: Navy -260, Army +210
