The first couple of rounds of the FCS Playoffs were electric. Now, the quarterfinals are here, and we're in for another fun Saturday.
I have three more spots circled for all three games on Saturday, including picks for Tarleton State vs. Villanova, Montana vs. South Dakota and UC Davis vs. Illinois State.
Let's dive into my FCS Playoffs picks and college football predictions for all three FCS games on Saturday, Dec. 13.
FCS Playoffs Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network contributor Joshua Nunn is targeting from Saturday's slate of FCS Playoffs games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tarleton State vs Villanova Pick
This line opened Tarleton State -7.5 and has steamed all week to a current line of -12.5. I agree with the move and will back the Texans.
Villanova might be in some major trouble here.
The Wildcats likely won't be able to run the football effectively, and this Tarleton State defensive front is going to be too physical and too fast for Villanova to operate on the ground.
For Nova to move the ball, it's going to have to need quarterback Pat McQuaide to play elite football and make tough downfield throws with extreme levels of precision.
I'm not convinced that Villanova has the talent at wide receiver to win one-on-one battles and make tough contested catches against Tarleton defensive backs Kasyus Kurns, Blake Smith or Ja’Voni Melidor.
I can see Nova having to force the issue in the second half to try to stay in this game, and this Texans defense should do what it has done all season: force pressure and turnovers.
Tarleton State quarterback Victor Gabalis and this Texans offense will move it here, and I expect them to score a lot of points. There are too many weapons for Nova to contend with, and the speed along the outside will be a problem for the Wildcats' secondary.
I don’t think Villanova can keep up here, so anything under two touchdowns is a bargain.
Pick: Tarleton State -12.5
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Montana vs South Dakota Pick
This line has bounced around between Montana -7 and -9.5 all week before settling at -7.5 with a total hovering around 60.5.
I called for it last week, and I'm going back to the well again here. I think the Coyotes are game to give the Grizzlies a real fight, and USD will have a chance to win this game late.
The South Dakota run game is dangerous enough to allow the Yotes to maintain possession of the ball and move the chains consistently for a full 60 minutes.
USD running back L.J. Phillips Jr. has now racked up 1,847 rushing yards and 18 scores while averaging 6.6 yards per attempt.
The attitude and urgency that the Coyotes' offensive line is playing with down the stretch has been extremely impressive. This offensive line doesn't allow negative plays or Havoc, and I expect the line to play its best football in this critical game.
USD is going to run the ball a ton here, and there may be no better play-action quarterback in the FCS than Aidan Bouman.
The Yotes have two elite receivers who are skilled at making tough contested catches downfield, and Bouman throws such an accurate deep ball. The play-action game will open up more opportunities in the rushing attack, so I expect USD to put points on the board here.
The South Dakota defense neutralized everything Mercer wanted to do last week, and we've seen USD's defense play well against South Dakota State, Illinois State and North Dakota in the latter half of its conference schedule.
The Yotes aren't excellent in forcing negative plays or generating Havoc, and while the secondary has been opportunistic this season, they're not elite according to the metrics.
Montana QB Keali'i Ah Yat and RB Eli Gillman are going to make plays, and the Griz have been one of the more consistent performing offenses in FCS this season.
However, I like what I've seen from the South Dakota defense down the stretch and in playoff-type atmospheres this
season. USD is going to keep this game close, so I like the Yotes at anything over a touchdown.
Pick: South Dakota +7.5
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UC Davis vs Illinois State Pick
This line has remained steady, with UCD coming in as a 2.5-point favorite and the total hovering around 58.5. I'm going to back the 'dog in this one.
Illinois State has been playing lights-out defensively over the last six weeks of this season.
The stop unit has undergone a complete turnaround since suffering a midseason loss to Youngstown State in October. It has held five of its last seven opponents to 21 points or less, and the attitude and intensity along the defensive line has ramped up significantly.
The Redbirds completely controlled the line of scrimmage against No. 1 North Dakota State and out-muscled the Bison at the point of attack.
NDSU couldn't run the ball, and the passing offense generated only one explosive play on the first play of the game.
This Redbird defensive front is going to create Havoc and pressure on UC Davis quarterback Caden Pinnick, which is something he's not accustomed to.
UC Davis' offensive line has had pass protection issues all season, surrendering 33 sacks. I don't see this offensive line holding up against stronger defensive tackles and quicker defensive ends who are going to be hungry once again this week.
The talent disparity in the trenches will take over when Illinois State is on defense.
I believe the Redbirds will sustain possession and execute on third downs and in the red zone. This team should be able to run the ball, and I expect the offensive line to force the issue against a weaker UC Davis front that doesn't excel at generating Havoc.
I believe Illinois State will avoid the hangover from last week's monumental upset over North Dakota State and show up focused and ready to go.
The Redbirds are the better team and should dominate in the trenches, where the game is often won. I'll take +2.5 here in the event we get a two-point conversion attempt as we saw last week.
Pick: Illinois State +2.5
