College Football Sharp Betting, Model Projections, Expert Picks for Week 5: NC State vs. Pitt, Arkansas vs. Mississippi State, More
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Jerry Jacobs
Week 5 has been a noteworthy one in the college football betting market, and our PRO Report feature has been lighting up as a result.
Several games — including some pretty high-profile matchups — are drawing a mix of sharp action, big bets, PRO Systems, model projection edges and picks from our college football experts.
Data as of 6:30 p.m. ET Friday. For immediate access to our new college football PRO Report for every Week 5 game, start a Free Trial today! You’ll also get:
- Pro Betting Systems: historically profitable betting trends and angles built on millions of data points.
- Line Move Predictions: know when a line will move — before it happens.
- Custom Fantasy Football Rankings from Sean Koerner (Top FantasyPros ranker)
NC State vs. Pitt PRO Report
Right off the bat, we’re met with one of the clearest instances of sharp action not just this slate, but the entire young season thus far. NC State has drawn big bets from sharps, a PRO System match and an edge based on our power ratings.
A pair of Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action, have confirmed two instances of professional activity on NC State.
We’ve yet to see any sign of sharp action going the other way.
Sharp Action edge: NC State
Another sign that sharps are playing the Wolfpack — their 40% spread backing has impressively generated 86% of actual money, meaning bigger bets, which are more likely to come from sharp bettors, are on the points.
Big Money: NC State
Three (!) PRO betting systems produce a match on NC State this weekend, including Road Dogs Low Totals — since 2005, visiting underdogs of a touchdown or more have gone 367-253-13 (59%) against conference opponents in games where the total was 48 or less.
PRO Systems edge: NC State
In agreement with the high-rolling sharps and PRO Systems, our model — compiled by Collin Wilson — projects NC State as just a 9-point underdog, giving considerable value to a two-touchdown spread.
Model Projections edge: NC State
USF vs. Cincinnati PRO Report
Three and a half hours later we have another four-signaler — and it just so happens be the same four signals, at least at the time of writing.
In this case, the sharp action has been more evident in the line-movement sense. Five SI Bet Signals have confirmed professional activity driving this line down from one key number (+24) to another (+21).
It is worth noting — if you’re looking to follow the sharps — that every Bet Signal thus far has come at a line higher than the key three-touchdown number.
Sharp Action edge: South Florida
Only one in four bets landing on this spread have come on the underdog, but they’ve generated a significantly higher actual dollar amount (77%), which once again reveals the opinion of bigger bettors, and further hints at the sharp side.
Big Money edge: South Florida
As this game is set up similarly to the NC State-Pitt matchup, with a big road dog in a game with a low total, USF also fits into our Road Dogs Low Totals PRO System.
PRO Systems edge: South Florida
Collin Wilson’s model makes South Florida more like a two-touchdown underdog, as it projects the Bulls at +14.5.
Model Projections edge: South Florida
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State PRO Report
Some more significant line movement presents itself in the form of this Big 12 matchup, as Oklahoma has fallen from -10.5 down to just a touchdown favorite in some shops.
Iowa State has been the most Bet Signal-heavy team this weekend, as 14 sharp indicators have been triggered on the Cyclones. Ten of those have come at a line greater than +7, and it’s worth noting that each time Oklahoma has fallen inside the key number, sharp action in the other direction has pushed the Sooners back.
Still, it’s clear which one of these sides has been the more attractive one to the wiseguys.
Sharp Action edge: Iowa State
Iowa State’s line move has come despite only 24% of bettors taking the Cyclones, which fits them into one of our PRO Systems: Bet Against Public with Line Move.
The system focuses on teams seeing reverse line movement on 35% or less bets, and has a 58% win rate since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Iowa State
Our experts are in agreement with the sharps, as well as the historical data, as two have taken Iowa State as of Friday evening.
Expert Picks edge: Iowa State
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State PRO Report
Thanks to some more sharp action, and a model projections edge leading to some picks from our experts, Arkansas rounds out the list of teams most highlighted by our PRO Report.
Much like the first game within this post, this line wouldn’t appear to have much going on at first glance. But there have been periods throughout the week in which Arkansas was more than a 17-point underdog. And in those moments, sharps took advantage.
Three Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered on Arkansas since this line opened, coming at +18.5 and twice more at +18.
Sharp Action edge: Arkansas
No power ratings edge has been bigger than this one, given the key numbers between our projection and the current line.
Our spread pegs the Razorbacks at +9.5.
Model Projections edge: Arkansas
As a result of the value presented on Arkansas, three of our college football experts are taking the Razorbacks.
Top Experts edge: Arkansas