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College Football Week 12 Havoc Ratings: Bedlam Brings the Mayhem

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John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Defensive end Isaiah Thomas #95 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates with linebacker Nik Bonitto #11.

A consumer of college football must recognize that mayhem may break at any moment. With some programs it is a reflection of coaching, while other schools have the better athletes to cause disruption. Week 11 was filled with plenty of havoc, none more apparent than Michigan and Wisconsin.

An under ticket was fueled by pace, offensive ineptitude by Michigan and a bit of rust expected for the Badgers. Thanks to havoc, 28 first half points were scored by Wisconsin. Interceptions thrown by quarterback Joe Milton spotted Wisconsin the ball at the Michigan 14 and 33 yard line.

Havoc is the term described for the accumulation of tackles for loss, pass breakups, interceptions and fumbles. While it is not a determined factor in taking a side or a total, it can be the best indicator in matchups in predicting turnovers.

The Pittsburgh offense has 16 fumbles on offense, yet only three have been recovered by opposing defenses. Other teams have great defensive units at getting the ball loose, as UTSA now has 11 forced fumbles on the season.

Our havoc calculation looks at tackles for loss, passes defensed and forced fumbles divided by defensive plays. The havoc allowed calculation looks at much of the opposite with tackles for loss allowed, fumbles and interceptions divided by the total offensive plays.


Don’t forget to check out my updated Power Ratings and follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet on games that have the biggest Havoc discrepancies.

Week 12 Havoc


Our Havoc chart looks at the percentage generated by defense compared to the percentage allowed on offense. There has been a limited number of snaps on the chart for some of the outliers like UMass, Western Michigan and Akron.

Here is a raw number breakdown of Havoc generated and Havoc allowed:


Notes on Week 12 Havoc

Clemson vs. Florida State

Tough times may lie ahead for the the Seminoles after Clemson comes off two weeks rest and a loss to Notre Dame.

A bevy of Tigers defensive starters went down with injury before and during the Irish game, including linebackers James Skalski and Mike Jones Jr. Three members of the secondary all left the Notre Dame game, but each player, including quarterback Trevor Lawrence, is set to return.

Florida State will be without star wide receiver Tamorrion Terry who has opted out of the season. The real issue may be the Seminoles inability to protect the ball with 62 tackles for loss allowed.

Although most would note the offense has lost three fumbles, there is some luck involved as the Seminoles have fumbled 10 times this season.


Wisconsin vs. Northwestern

As mentioned earlier, Wisconsin is living up to the 2019 season that saw its defense finish second in havoc. The Badgers run into an undefeated Northwestern team that is running hot ranking 14th in opponent third down conversions and 27th in defensive havoc. The Wildcats time might be up when hosting Wisconsin.

The Northwestern defense is facing an opponent that ranks fifth in havoc allowed. In two games, Wisconsin has not had in interception, fumbled just once and allowed nine tackles for loss.

Peyton Ramsey has been one of the best passers in the nation, but the Badgers defense ranks as the best in FBS in opponent passing success rate.

 


Check out our new College Football PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma

Bedlam will bring the fireworks as the Pokes travel to Norman. Expect the ball to change hands multiple times, as both the Cowboys and Sooners rank top-16 in defensive havoc.

More specifically, Spencer Rattler and Spencer Sanders have massive drops in completion percentage under pressure. The benefit will be on the Sooners side, as Oklahoma grades at the top in pass rush per PFF.

Another advantage for the Sooners is Oklahoma State’s rank of 113th in havoc allowed. Outside of 10 fumbles, the Pokes have allowed 55 tackles for loss. Keep tabs on Oklahoma defensive end Nik Bonitto with 23 hurries and 11 defensive stops.


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