The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks take on the Montana State Bobcats in the quarterfinals of the FCS Playoffs on Friday, Dec. 12. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Montana State is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. Stephen F. Austin, meanwhile, enters as a +13.5 underdog and is +410 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here are my Stephen F. Austin vs. Montana State predictions and college football picks for Friday, December 12.
Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Prediction
- Stephen F. Austin vs. Montana State Pick: Stephen F. Austin +13.5
My Montana State vs. Stephen F. Austin best bet is on the Lumberjacks to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Odds
| Stephen F. Austin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +410 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Spread: Montana State -13.5, Stephen F. Austin +13.5
- Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Moneyline: Stephen F. Austin +410, Montana State -550
Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State FCS Playoffs Preview
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Betting Preview: Looking to Make History
This has been a familiar spot for Montana State, as the Bobcats have become accustomed to making deep postseason runs. A win for Stephen F. Austin, however, would mark the deepest postseason run for the Lumberjacks since 1995.
The winner will square off against either Montana or South Dakota in the semifinals.
SFA comes in off a thrilling 41-34 victory over Abilene Christian last week in which it avenged an earlier regular-season loss against the Wildcats.
The Lumberjacks racked up 502 yards of total offense behind the arm of Sam Vidlak, who threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns.
Kylon Harris caught 11 passes for 183 yards, and the ground game was efficient in the fourth quarter.
The offense is operating on all cylinders, scoring 40 or more points in four of the last five games. The Jacks will have to be at their best to hang in there against the top remaining team in the FCS Playoffs.
The defense has been the strength of the Lumberjacks team for long stretches this season, as Stephen F. Austin boasts one of the top-ranked stop units in all of FCS football.
ACU consistently moved the ball against SFA, accumulating 419 yards on 6.2 yards per play. SFA played uncharacteristically poorly in the red zone defensively and was out of position in stopping the run.
The Lumberjacks will have their work cut out for them this week against a strong Montana State ground attack.
Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview: Can Bobs Bounce Back?
Montana State found itself in a tough battle with Ivy League champion Yale last week before ultimately prevailing by a score of 21-13.
The Bobcats struggled to put Yale away and found it much more difficult than anticipated when operating offensively.
Montana State ended up running for 249 yards while averaging 6.2 yards per carry on the ground, but it recorded only two explosive rushes in the contest.
The Bobcats were also held to one of their lowest point and yardage totals of the season while being forced to punt six times.
Defensively, the Bobcats controlled a majority of the last contest, but Yale's ground game was effective, and the Bulldogs threw the ball well.
Yale outgained Montana State and made some plays in the fourth quarter, but the Bobs played well defensively.
Montana State is equipped with a talented defensive front that has registered 24 sacks and 74 tackles for loss. However, I wouldn't expect this unit to overwhelm SFA the way it dominated the lower half of the Big Sky this year.
Stephen F. Austin vs Montana State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line has bounced around between 9.5 and 13.5 all week, and the total has been bumped up to 52.5 from 51.5.
I trust the Stephen F. Austin defense to keep the Lumberjacks in this game until the very end, so I'm going to back SFA here.
The SFA defense is legitimately talented, and there are pieces in place to stop what Montana State wants to do on offense. The
Lumberjacks are exceptional at playing on the opponent's side of the line of scrimmage and live in the opponent’s backfield.
This is going to be one of the better fronts that Montana State has lined up against all season. In fact, Stephen F. Austin grades out as PFF's second-best run defense in all of FCS.
Similar to last week, I expect SFA to match the Bobcats' physicality and challenge quarterback Justin Lamson to make plays through the air.
SFA has two physical cornerbacks who will match up well here. Charles Demmings is the most talented cornerback in the Southland Conference, and SFA has also racked up 40 sacks and 114 tackles for loss this season.
On the other side, Vidlak is efficient at throwing the ball, and Harris and Clayton Wayland are very reliable pass-catchers. I expect SFA to create some mismatch problems against the Bobs in battles they can win one-on-one. This offense will throw a few punches.
Bozeman has been a house of horrors for FCS opponents in the playoffs in recent seasons, but I believe Stephen F. Austin has the goods to go in and give these guys a game. Expect a tight, lower-scoring battle in a full 60-minute fight.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin +13.5
