The 2026 College Football Playoff is upon us, and it all begins with a Thursday night Fiesta Bowl semifinal between the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes and No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels.
I broke down my top spread pick and also came through with a +800 same-game parlay for those looking for a bit of an exotic play.
Let's dive into the College Football Playoff odds and my Miami vs. Ole Miss picks for Thursday, Jan. 8.
2026 College Football Playoff Odds for Ole Miss vs. Miami
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 53 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 53 -110o / -110u | -165 |
I took the hook with the Rebels in large part due to the fact that I project this spread at under a field goal.
Trinidad Chambliss the X-Factor
It took me too long to adjust to how good Trinidad Chambliss is, and I don't believe the market has fully caught up just yet. He looks like prime Lamar Jackson at the moment.
Meanwhile, Miami might be getting just a bit too much credit for its win over what may have been a bit of an overrated Ohio State team that didn't really get tested much during the regular season with an extremely soft schedule and clear deficiencies along the offensive line and at running back.
Chambliss' elusiveness and ability to evade pressure/mistakes (just a 13% pressure-to-sack ratio and a minuscule 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate) may end up being the difference in this game, as he could neutralize Miami's tremendous pass rush, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.
I also expect Ole Miss to utilize plenty of tempo to wear down that duo — something Ohio State failed to do outside of a two-minute drill in which you could see some fatigue setting in.
I can't overstate how impressive Chambliss' performance was in the second half against a Georgia defense that has been absolute nails in the second half of games all season under Kirby Smart, the best defensive in-game adjuster in the sport.
I think it's also worth looking back to what Chambliss did on the road at Oklahoma — a very similar defense to Miami with a ferocious front.
With no running game to speak of (Kewan Lacy finished with 27 carries for 78 yards), Chambliss finished 24-of-44 for 315 yards and added another 50 yards on the ground.
It was his ability to extend plays with his legs that made all of the difference. Chambliss led a critical 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter after the Sooners stormed back to take the lead, which I thought, at the time, they'd hold onto for good.
Where Can Ole Miss Take Advantage?
Ohio State's offensive line just got dominated in the quarterfinals, and the Buckeyes had no recourse since Julian Sayin is a statue in the pocket.
I just didn't understand the Buckeyes' offensive game plan, which involved a lack of tempo and using their tight ends as blockers way too frequently.
In order to move the ball on this excellent Miami defense, a team needs to play with pace and spread the Hurricanes out. It also helps tremendously to have a quarterback with mobility who can buy time when needed to hit the explosive plays, which Miami can be susceptible to.
The Ole Miss offense (which ranks in the top-10 in both pressure rate and Sack EPA allowed) checks all of those boxes.
The Rebels offense (which I now have ranked No. 1) is similar to the SMU offense but just on steroids. SMU spread Miami out and used tempo in a victory earlier this season.
In that win, Kevin Jennings (on one leg) finished 29-of-44 for 365 yards despite having zero help from his running backs (the Mustangs finished with a sub-1.0 yards-per-carry mark). Jennings also didn't take a single sack.
In that loss, Miami hurt itself with a few Carson Beck mistakes and too many penalties, which could end up biting it in this matchup.
The Hurricanes have also had issues with tackling (bottom-10 in missed tackle rate) this season, which Ole Miss (top-five in missed-tackle rate forced) can exploit on this fast, sloppy track.
Rebels' Defense to Step Up?
The Hurricanes are a very undisciplined team (outside the top 100 nationally in penalties), and I doubt Beck will just be able to manage the game as he did in Miami's first two playoff victories, where he threw for a combined 241 yards with zero completions of more than 20 yards.
I expect Ole Miss to sit back in heavy zones while mixing up coverages and occasional exotic blitzes, forcing Miami to work its way down the field without turning it over or committing key penalties.
We should see Miami move the ball with relative ease on the ground with Mark Fletcher Jr. and company behind a top-tier offensive line facing a vulnerable rush defense.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean those drives will end with 7s on the board.
The wild card in this matchup is trying to measure the impact of all of the Ole Miss staff turmoil. Frankly, I have no idea how to quantify it with this being such an unprecedented situation in the wild west of the current college football landscape.
College Football Playoff Picks for Ole Miss vs. Miami
Ultimately, I'm just going to trust my numbers and back the Rebels, who have the better offense and quarterback with a defense that has continued to improve since that second half against Georgia in the regular season with their two best corners healthy together.
Plus, Ole Miss might have the best special teams in the nation, led by kicker Lucas Carneiro, who's an absolute weapon.
I respect the Canes, who have one of the best offensive and defensive lines in the country. That matters, and maybe they win this game by simply dominating in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but I don't think this line should be above a field goal on a neutral field.
Regarding the total, I do lean over at 52 or better.
In terms of props, here's a +800 same-game parlay I put together:
- Over 50.5 (Alt. Points)
- Lacy Under Rushing Yards
- Chambliss Over Passing Yards
- Dae'Quan Wright 20+ Receiving Yards
- Fletcher 80+ Rushing Yards
Lastly, don't sleep on Mario Cristobal's ability to blow a game with poor game management. The clock management battle between him and Joe Judge could be pure comedy.
Hotty Toddy.
Spread Pick: Ole Miss +3.5
Total Lean: Over 52 or Better
Same-Game Parlay:
- Over 50.5 (Alt. Points)
- Lacy Under Rushing Yards
- Chambliss Over Passing Yards
- Wright 20+ Receiving Yards
- Fletcher 80+ Rushing Yards
