The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (13-1, 7-1 Big 12) take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (12-2, 6-2 Big Ten) in the 2026 Fiesta Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Thursday, Jan. 8, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Miami, which enters as a -3.5 favorite, is coming off a stunning upset over No. 2 Ohio State. The Hurricanes came into that game as +9.5 underdogs but stayed strong defensively to pull off a 24-14 upset over the second-ranked Buckeyes.
After holding Texas A&M to just 3 points in their first-round CFP clash, the Canes have given up a grand total of 17 points over their last 2 games.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, pulled an upset of its own last week. The Rebels were +6.5 underdogs to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl but came away with an electric 39-34 victory over the Bulldogs in one of the most entertaining college football games of the season.
With 2 unlikely teams making their way to the semifinals, which squad has the best chance of punching its ticket to the 2026 CFP National Championship?
We polled 11 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Ole Miss vs. Miami picks and college football predictions for the College Football Playoff on Thursday, Jan. 8.
Ole Miss vs. Miami Odds, Over/Under, Point Spread
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -102 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +136 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -118 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -162 |
Ole Miss vs. Miami Spread Prediction
Our Spread Pick: Ole Miss +3.5
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff is fairly aligned when it comes to the point spread for this game. That alignment comes on the underdog Ole Miss Rebels and makes sense since this spread sits right above a key betting figure.
Despite what should have been a major distraction in the coaching turnover — turnover that’s still ongoing, as there are conflicting reports about who will even be on the sidelines for this game and beyond — Ole Miss blew out Tulane and mounted a huge comeback over Georgia to make it to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
A potent offense under quarterback Trinidad Chambliss accomplished what it needed to: score a lot of points and advance.
But preventing scoring points is the specialty of this Miami defense.
Behind a ferocious pass rush duo in Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor (plus now the re-inclusion of defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr.), the Hurricanes held Texas A&M to just three points and Ohio State to 14.
However, Ole Miss rosters a better offensive line than Ohio State and a better cast of weapons than A&M, which is partly why our staff likes the Rebs.
The other half of this lean comes from Miami’s offensive struggles.
Despite some bursts of brilliance (see: its first drive in the Cotton Bowl), Miami’s offense has scored only three total touchdowns in the CFP — one of which came as the Buckeyes dragged CharMar Brown into the end zone with 55 seconds left in the game.
That came from a combination of some awful play-calling (largely in College Station) and talented receivers not getting a whole lot of separation.
The Ole Miss defense leaves a lot to be desired, but our staff projects the offense can compensate for that (the Rebels are 2-1 when allowing 30-plus points). If we’re getting into a track meet, that favors Ole Miss quite a bit.
To jump ahead to the next section, our staff also leans under the total. In a game with two talented teams, taking the points with the underdog is just good practice when paired with the under.
Ole Miss vs. Miami Over/Under Prediction
Over 52.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 52.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 52.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff leans toward the under in this matchup, and I support that sentiment here. We've seen the path for Miami in the playoff, and its game plan was executed to perfection against Texas A&M and Ohio State.
Miami wants to run the football, and it should be able to here. Ole Miss is equipped with a middling run defense that ranks 67th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 115th in explosive rushes allowed.
The emergence of Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. during the CFP has been huge in aiding the Hurricanes when it comes to moving the football and sustaining possession. I expect him to get fed in this one once again.
Fletcher has run for 262 yards on 36 attempts in the postseason, so Miami's game plan has to include feeding him and winning the physicality war in the trenches — something I fully expect it to do.
Ole Miss has been a high-scoring team this year, and the Rebels excel when they match up well at the line of scrimmage and let quarterback Trinidad Chambliss run around and create plays off-script.
I just don’t think that operation will look like it did in the games leading up to this semifinal. Miami has a nasty defensive front that led the nation with 49 sacks.
This unit is also stout against the run, as the Hurricanes have allowed just 84 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per attempt. I don't foresee Ole Miss sustaining drives by moving the ball on the ground, and I don’t think Chambliss will be able to wiggle out of trouble against this defensive line.
Miami operates at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country, ranking 130th in seconds between plays. I'm not entirely convinced Ole Miss will be able to run as much tempo as it did in the regular season.
On top of the matchup on the field, the Rebels' coaching staff continues to get plucked, as many of their assistant coaches have already left or are being called to leave for LSU or other jobs.
This staff is being reduced weekly, and it's in full scramble mode. It's going to be difficult to execute a full game install against an opponent they didn't face during the regular season. That's something they didn’t have to do in the first two playoff games.
This is a tough ask for Ole Miss. The Rebels are going to have no choice but to slow down and be methodical when faced with adversity in key situations.
Lastly, I trust Miami's red-zone defense, which has been excellent when it comes to getting stops and forcing field-goal attempts in the CFP.
With the field condensed, Miami's pass rush and run-stopping prowess will dictate the terms.
