The Fiesta Bowl has been a perfect venue for underdogs over the years.
Just don’t tell that to a Miami fan.
In fact, if you bump into a Miami fan before kickoff, it may be wise to avoid the word “fatigue” or the name Terry Porter unless you’re looking for trouble.
Can the Canes exorcise a few demons in the desert, or is Ole Miss’s Cinderella run destined to end in a national title?
Here are a few of my favorite Fiesta Bowl Props and NCAAF Exotics for Thursday’s College Football Playoff semi-final.
Ole Miss vs Miami Odds
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -118 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -102 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
Malachi Toney 80+ Receiving Yds & Anytime TD
Malachi Toney has been a dynamic gamebreaker all year long for the Hurricanes.
He’s eclipsed 80 receiving yards six times already this season. He went off against Florida State (107 yards) and Louisville (135 yards), two teams with higher-rated pass defenses than the one he’ll face in Glendale on Thursday night.
Speaking of the Ole Miss pass defense, let’s look at some comps.
Zachariah Branch was heavily targeted in Georgia’s two meetings with Mississippi. The shifty slot receiver saw 19 balls thrown his way, converting those opportunities into 16 receptions, 138 yards, and a score.
Another electric slot receiver that gave Ole Miss fits was Oklahoma's Isaiah Sategna III. The track star cooked the Rebels, exploding for 131 yards and a score back in late October.
Even Wazzu’s Tony Freeman gave Ole Miss fits out of the slot (9/92/TD).
This is a clear weakness that Shannon Dawson would be wise to attack, and he’s been comfortable feeding Toney in both the passing and rushing games this season. Toney hit double-digit touches in four of his last nine contests.
The reason why this parlay pays close to three-to-one is Toney’s postseason performance to date.
Windy conditions grounded the Canes’ passing attack in College Station, but he still found the endzone on a game-winning jet sweep in the fourth quarter against Texas A&M.
And while Ohio State’s top-rated pass defense (129.7 yards per game allowed) put the shackles on Toney and Carson Beck, Ole Miss simply isn’t in the Buckeyes' class.
Just look at the Rebels’ coverage grades from PFF. Two of their three starting corners (Graves, Ryan) have coverage grades below 63 (out of 100). And if Miami can establish its running game early behind Mark Fletcher, Pete Golding and his defensive staff will have no choice but to leave Toney in man-to-man situations from time to time.
He’s the kind of receiver who can explode for a 50-yard reception at any time, and offensive coordinator Dawson has found more and more ways to use him in the red zone, including 15 Wildcat snaps during the season.
He’ll have ample opportunity to do damage from a yardage perspective, and his versatility makes him a solid bet to find paydirt for his 10th touchdown of the season.
Parlay: Malachi Toney 80+ Receiving Yards & Anytime Touchdown (+272, DraftKings)
Ole Miss Score First & Miami Win
I was shocked to see this offered at this price point, for a few reasons.
The first is that Miami has been slow out of the starting blocks for much of the season (4.8 1Q PPG, 84th). And in the Canes' last four games, they’ve scored a grand total of 10 points in the first quarter.
That is a scripting issue, plain and simple. Early offensive success continues to elude the Hurricanes.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, is a microwave. The Rebels heat up in no time (7.5 1Q PPG, 21st). In the Rebels’ last four games, they’ve pumped in 44 first-quarter points.
Trinidad Chambliss has been sharp as a tack. The former D-II national champion has completed 71.7% of his passes in the first quarter this season. Against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, he led two scoring drives in the first quarter while completing 8-of-14 attempts for 65 yards.
The other factor leading me to believe Ole Miss can strike first? The kicker.
All Chambliss and the offense need to do is get to the Miami 40-yard line, because Lucas Carneiro can bomb it in from anywhere inside of 60 yards. The future NFL placekicker is 27-for-30 on the year and an impressive 11-for-13 from 40-plus.
In an ideal world, Ole Miss takes a 3-0 lead. Given the pregame odds, a live bet on Miami could be expected to payout anywhere from -110 to +120, at best. To get them at +330 would not only be a gift, but it could also provide a nice hedge opportunity if you wanted to back Ole Miss with a short lead at even odds.
I have played Miami pregame at -3.5 (+100) and feel confident the Hurricanes can weather a few scoring flurries from Chambliss and company. My confidence in the ‘Canes comes from their advantages in the trenches and their defensive coordinator's remarkable work this season. Corey Hetherman has been a step ahead of teams in the second half all season long.
In Miami’s biggest games against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Ohio State, Hetherman put on a coaching clinic in the third quarter, holding that trio nearly a full touchdown below their third-quarter scoring averages.
He won’t need a lot of smoke and mirrors to get his defense off the field if the pass rushers come to play. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have been on the warpath, racking up nine tackles for loss during this playoff run.
Trinidad Chambliss has looked nearly unflappable at times this season, but he was clearly bothered by disruptive fronts on two occasions (Wazzu, Florida).
Wazzu rolled the dice and blitzed Chambliss 15 times, generating 11 pressures, while getting home for three sacks.
Florida went hog wild and blitzed him 25 times, and it worked. The Gators sacked Chambliss five times on ten pressures. As a double-digit underdog, the underwhelming Gators team led Ole Miss in the fourth quarter.
Wazzu nearly pulled off a seismic upset, falling by three as 33-point underdogs.
The point being, if you can consistently pressure Chambliss with four rushers or by dialing up the blitz, the Ole Miss offense can sputter.
It’s difficult to thread the needle with a double result or exotic bet like this, but knowing what we know about these teams in the first and third quarters this season, at this price point, I’m adding it to my card.
Pick: Ole Miss Score First & Miami Win (+330, DraftKings)
