The 2025-26 College Football Playoff continues on Thursday with the Fiesta Bowl semifinal matchup between No. 10 Miami (12-2) and No. 6 Ole Miss (13-1).
Our experts from the Big Bets On Campus podcast have two correlated bets for this CFP game.
Let's take a look at our 2026 Fiesta Bowl picks and college football predictions for Ole Miss vs. Miami.
2026 Fiesta Bowl Odds, Betting Lines, Total: Rebels vs. Hurricanes
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 52 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 52 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Ole Miss vs. Miami Picks: Ole Miss +3.5 or Better
By Stuckey
I project the Hurricanes as 2.5-point favorites, so I’ll take the Rebels at anything over a field goal.
I think everyone is underestimating Trinidad Chambliss. He’s playing at an insane level. He’s almost unpressurable.
And that’s the key against Miami. The Hurricanes' strength is their pass rush, and if they don’t get home, they will give up plenty of explosive plays — and Ole Miss can hit explosives as good as any team in the country.
I also think Ole Miss can wear Miami’s defensive ends down by upping the tempo.
At the same time, I believe Ole Miss has the better offense between these two teams.
What has Miami’s offense done? Outside of Mark Fletcher breaking a few explosive runs, the Hurricanes have been mostly lifeless. Carson Beck has thrown for 241 yards across two playoff games.
Miami can run the ball against Ole Miss, but the Hurricanes don’t have an explosive rushing attack. And that might actually help the Rebels, given Pete Golding likes to play zone-heavy, bend-don’t-break defense.
Ole Miss is going to look for stops in the red zone, and the Rebels likely get a few.
But, more importantly, Ole Miss will have a monster advantage from an explosive play perspective. Beck can’t be a game manager, and he might make some key mistakes — Ole Miss likely generates some pressure on him.
Ole Miss also has a good special teams unit, while I still don’t trust Miami’s kicking situation. Additionally, Mario Cristobal-led teams are typically undisciplined, as Miami ranks 110th nationally in penalties per game, while Ole Miss ranks around the national average.
Ultimately, this comes down to Chambliss evading pressure and hitting explosive plays. If he does that, I believe the Rebels’ bend-don’t-break defense will force Beck into a few key mistakes, and they’ll be on their way to the National Championship game.
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2026 Fiesta Bowl Prediction: Ole Miss 1H +1.5 or Better
By Collin Wilson
The Fiesta Bowl is always a high-scoring game. That turf is quick.
That favors the better offense, Ole Miss.
Kewan Lacy will run behind right guard Patrick Kutas on inside-zone and power concepts. They’ve been awesome at this, averaging nearly seven yards per attempt through either the A or B gap.
Kutas will face off against Justin Scott, David Blay, and Ahmad Moten. While Miami has some elite edge rushers, none of the interior guys are great run defenders. That’s a big advantage for Lacy, Kutas, and the Ole Miss offensive line.
While Miami has been solid at stopping most run concepts, the Hurricanes struggled against inside-zone, specifically on the right side of the line, where Kutas is.
Also, Lacy has been on a heater lately, with 10 rushing touchdowns and 15 explosives over the past five games.
In the passing game, can Ole Miss get pressure on Chambliss? I don’t think so.
At a minimum, the Rebels can provide some resistance to Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor.
Blindside tackle Diego Pounds is a top-100 pass-blocker nationally. He has yet to allow a sack this season, and he allowed only five pressures against SEC opponents.
Right tackle Jayden Williams has been on a heater. He’s only allowed two sacks on the season and four pressures across the past six games.
And, of course, Chambliss’s ability to elude pressure is elite.
He can also carve up Cover-3 defenses, something he’s done with a 58% Success Rate.
It’s also important to mention that Miami isn’t a good tackling team, ranking 119th nationally in PFF’s tackling grades and 93rd in Brocken Tackles Allowed. The Hurricanes missed 25 tackles and allowed eight explosives against Texas A&M and Ohio State.
Ole Miss can protect the quarterback, run Lacy through the right side of the line, and the Rebels have plenty of inside targets. Chambliss has been awesome throwing in between the hash marks. Cayden Lee, Winston Watkins, Dae’quan Wright, and De’Zhaun Stribling can take advantage of Miami’s linebackers in the middle of the field.
The only reason why I’m betting Ole Miss in the first half instead of the full game is because of the coaching situation.
Who can Charlie Weis Jr. turn to for adjustments? Does he have anybody to talk to on the sidelines?
Although much of this game-script favors Ole Miss, I think second-half adjustments will ultimately favor Miami.
It’s also worth mentioning that Ole Miss’s defense has been good in pass defense, ranking in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Pass allowed and contested catch rate. The Rebels don’t allow any explosives.
I don’t think Beck will be able to create enough against this pass defense to keep up with Chambliss.
Ultimately, give me the better quarterback, the better offense, the better offensive line, and the better tackling team.
