Welcome to the Conference USA in 2025.
Along with two new teams — Delaware and Missouri State — entering the fray, there are plenty of storylines to keep an eye on this season.
Liberty once again tops the odds board and will look to take home a conference title after falling short in a big way a season ago.
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky looks to produce the next Bailey Zappe when it brings in another quarterback/offensive coordinator pairing from the FCS ranks.
Action Network writer and "G5 Deep Dive" co-host Joshua "Duck" Nunn came through to break down what the conference will look like in 2025 and dish out his top win totals and futures.
Let's dive into our 2025 Conference USA Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 Conference USA Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liberty | +100 |
| Western Kentucky | +425 |
| Louisiana Tech | +900 |
| Jacksonville State | +1100 |
| Sam Houston | +1200 |
| UTEP | +1400 |
| Middle Tennessee | +1500 |
| FIU | +1600 |
| New Mexico State | +2800 |
| Kennesaw State | +4000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, Aug 5.
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I’m feeling pretty good about Liberty’s defense heading into this season.
Continuity with the coaching staff is a big deal here, and it's not afraid to mix things up on that side of the ball. You’re going to see a variety of looks, as the Flames run everything from a 4-2-5 to a 3-3-5, which should give them an edge from a versatility perspective.
The defensive line might be a bit undersized, but they make up for it with speed and athleticism. Defensive lineman CJ Bazile Jr. is someone I expect to shine this year after racking up two sacks and five tackles for loss a season ago.
The linebackers bring experience, including a couple of FCS transfers who should immediately help stabilize the group. The secondary also looks promising, especially given the unique looks they bring, which could cause some headaches for the pass-heavy teams that are flooding the league.
Overall, I don’t see Liberty’s defense being any worse than last year, and it might even be a bit better.
Now, offense is really where the question marks are, and I think this season will come down to how well the Flames can retool that side of the ball.
Quarterback Ethan Vasco is an absolute perfect fit here. He was actually recruited out of high school by Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina, so he’s already familiar with the system and should slide in nicely.
The running back situation looks like it’ll be a committee approach, with Vaughn Blue bringing talent and the young Caden Williams making a case to get meaningful reps.
However, they will definitely need a receiver or two to step up and emerge.
Chadwell’s coaching style will probably look different this year compared to last. Remember, 2023 started out hot for the Flames with a great regular season and New Year’s Six bowl, but then last year felt like a bit of a slog. They kind of coasted through games, even the ones they won.
There were some close calls that felt lucky, like the miracle comeback against New Mexico State or squeaking past East Carolina. Then, the loss to Kennesaw State was a real shocker and stirred up some alarm bells.
Kaidon Salter didn’t seem like himself, missing his usual edge and not really diving into the run game the way you’d expect.
The offense just lost some steam and intensity in a way that was hard to ignore. Beating UMass by a single point wasn’t exactly confidence-inspiring either.
By the end of last season, it was clear the Flames hadn’t lived up to their own expectations. But that loss to Kennesaw State — the worst team in the conference — should spark some serious motivation in this group.
Chadwell will have his work cut out for him to reignite the fire, but it feels like there’s some urgency there now.
Looking at the schedule, there are definitely some interesting tests coming up. They aren't overly brutal opponents, but a few key matchups stand out.
Week 2 marks the start of conference play on the road at a rebuilding Jacksonville State team. That’s going to be a must-win for Liberty, a game it'll have circled in red.
Before that, there’s a high-profile nonconference showdown with James Madison — a classic Group of Five clash between two of the top teams in their respective leagues with potential College Football Playoff implications down the line.
Right between those two is a trip to Bowling Green, a team that’s also in rebuild mode but could still be a tricky spot, especially since Liberty will probably be favored by double digits there.
And don’t forget the in-state rivalry game against Old Dominion before conference play really kicks off.
There will be plenty to learn from how Liberty handles these nonconference games and how it comes out of the gate in the league.
I’ve marked a few favorable spots for the Flames in conference, but none are bigger than the season finale against Kennesaw State at home. That game is going to be a statement moment. After last year’s upset, Liberty will want to make sure it drops the hammer.
All in all, I think Liberty is set up for a solid season.
The real question is how Chadwell channels whatever disappointment lingered from last year into motivation this time around. Both sides of the ball need that extra push, and if they get it, this could be a team that surprises folks and reminds everyone what Flames football is all about.
Pick: Liberty to Win Conference USA (+125)
Tyson Helton is heading into his seventh year leading Western Kentucky, but what really stands out is the constant turnover at the offensive coordinator spot. The Tops are now on their fifth different OC in as many years.
This isn’t new for WKU; they’ve had success before bringing in hot, up-and-coming offensive coordinators who come in with their quarterback.
Remember Bailey Zappe and Zach Kittley? Four years ago, that combo worked wonders and made Zappe a fan favorite. His legacy still looms large around this program, while Kittley now serves as the head coach at Florida Atlantic.
Looking ahead, the offense is expected to be electric again.
Quarterback Maverick McIvor benefits from some familiarity with the system and has a strong relationship with new OC Rick Bowie after both came in from Abilene Christian.
At Conference USA Media Days, he seemed confident, saying he feels comfortable stepping up against tougher competition. He also sounds positive about working with a new group of receivers, so the offense should roll smoothly.
One thing to watch is the pace. Western Kentucky might push the tempo a bit more this year.
The offensive line, however, is a big question mark. They’re basically rebuilding that group with transfers coming in from Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron and New Mexico. We’ll see quickly if these pieces click. But since McIvor can get the ball out quickly, that should help ease any pressure the line can’t handle.
The real sticking point for WKU is the defense. The Tops return only three starters, which is concerning.
Last year’s front seven struggled big time against the run, allowing 250-300 yards per game to teams like Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State. And against a dynamic rushing team like Jacksonville State, WKU couldn’t get a stop.
That’s going to be a problem again this year, and I don’t see immediate improvement given the players it has back up front.
Because of this imbalance, expect high-scoring games. The defense might be a probleml, but the offense should keep the Hilltoppers competitive.
Their opening Conference USA matchup against Sam Houston looks like a game that will really light up the scoreboard with Phil Longo now leading the Bearkats
The season slate includes some tough road games at Toledo and LSU, two spots I think WKU will struggle and probably fade. It also heads to Missouri State, where there’s an interesting bit of motivation: Bears head coach Ryan Beard has close ties to WKU, so expect a fired-up opponent. Plus, a trip to Louisiana Tech awaits.
I lean over 7.5 wins, but there isn’t huge value there given a couple of likely losses outside the conference.
Western Kentucky is one of about four or five teams fighting for that second spot behind Liberty in Conference USA. Still, it should be a really exciting, offensively-charged season for the Hilltoppers in Bowling Green, Kentucky.
Pick: Western Kentucky Over 7.5 Wins (Slight Lean)
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Scotty Walden is exactly the kind of coach UTEP needed. He's a real energizer, full of passion and intensity, who’s totally committed to the program.
The Miners have been craving that shot in the arm to revive what used to be a proud football tradition, and Walden feels like the guy who can get it done.
Last season, the offense ran into some serious struggles. It was a big shift from the power, double-tight end, run-heavy style Dana Dimel favored.
Walden brought in that unique offense he used at Austin Peay, and the transition wasn’t smooth. The quarterback situation was rough, too, with injuries forcing the Miners to rotate through three or four QBs, and at one point even starting JP Pickles.
Now, with Skyler Locklear hopefully healthy and ready to take that next step, it’ll be interesting to see how the offense shapes up. Adding Malachi Nelson into the mix adds a new dynamic, though early camp reports suggest he’s not the frontrunner for the starting job.
Beyond that, the skill positions look pretty stacked. Running back Hahsaun Wilson showed me enough at Charlotte to be excited, and there’s talent everywhere at receiver ready to break out.
The offensive line is a bit of an unknown, but the guys are big, experienced transfers who seem to be gelling quickly.
Defensively, UTEP quietly impressed last season. The Miners were decent on third downs and stood tall in the red zone, forcing nine empty trips and eight field goals. The front seven also made noise with 87 tackles for loss and 36 sacks.
Now, the question is whether the new transfers can pick things up and slot into the defense smoothly.
The guy to watch on that front is McNeese State transfer Micah Davey, who racked up 311 tackles in three FCS seasons.
This guy’s a beast and will be a defensive anchor for the Miners. If he sets the tone and the secondary can tighten up just a bit, UTEP’s defense could actually be pretty solid this year.
Looking at the bigger picture, UTEP is definitely in the mix as one of those five or six teams jockeying for that second-tier spot in Conference USA. A 5.5-win season feels very doable.
When you count games, the Miners have about 10 winnable matchups on the docket.
The nonconference schedule kicks off with a trip to Logan, Utah, against a Utah State squad still trying to find its footing defensively under Bronco Mendenhall. That one’s definitely winnable. ULM at home will be a challenge but not impossible.
On the CUSA slate, games against Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston, Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State (which is on the decline), New Mexico State in the Battle of I-10, plus newcomers Missouri State and Delaware, all look like solid opportunities.
Given all that, a six-win season would be a big success and enough to get them to a bowl game and give fans something to cheer about.
If everything clicks offensively and the defense improves a bit, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Miners push for seven or eight wins. This season could be a real turning point for UTEP football.
Pick: UTEP Over 5.5 Wins (Lean)
Delaware is looking like a team set up for a solid season. This program has a lot to be proud of — they’re fired up about moving up and consistently play hard, showing that grind-it-out effort every week.
That work ethic has been the Hens' trademark at the FCS level, and it feels like they’re ready to make waves in Conference USA.
Last year was a bit rough at quarterback with injuries all over the place. Zach Marker and Nick Minicucci both went down, and Braden Streeter even had to start a game. Staying healthy under center is going to be key if they want to compete.
If they can keep the QB spot stable, I think they’ll hold their own in conference play.
On offense, keep an eye on Viron Ellison Jr. in the backfield. He’s poised for a solid year, assuming the offensive line can step up.
They’re bringing back three starters up front, plus a couple of reserves who’ve been in the system long enough to take on bigger roles now. Offensive line play is always something to watch, and it could really swing how well the Hens do here.
Defensively, the front seven is definitely undersized, but they make up for it with speed. The real question is depth, especially late in the season when it counts most.
A lot of Delaware's games that should be winnable come in that stretch, so it’ll be important to see if they can hold up physically.
Coaching-wise, led by Ryan Carty, Delaware is solid and executes well. It should be in the mix for several wins.
To start the season, the Hens have a huge edge over Delaware State, which is clearly a lower-tier FCS program. That game should be a blowout in Delaware’s favor.
One of the more intriguing matchups is its national TV debut in Boulder. The Hens will likely be big underdogs — potentially catching 20 points or more — so it’ll be fascinating to see how they handle that environment and the altitude.
After that, they head back east for a Northeast rivalry against UConn before traveling to FIU. That FIU game might be a bit of a downer spot; they might be looking ahead to their bye week after four games, so I wonder if they’ll be fully dialed in.
Midseason, Delaware’s schedule eases up with a long break of 25 days to basically play just one game, followed by a home matchup with Western Kentucky, another bye, and a trip to Jacksonville State.
The back half of the season looks promising, especially against some of the teams they should be able to beat, like Louisiana Tech and Sam Houston.
Their last game is interesting, too. If UTEP’s already locked in a bowl, you have to wonder what kind of motivation it'll bring. But for Delaware, it’s senior day and basically its Super Bowl, so I could absolutely see a fired-up effort there.
Another spot to watch is their trip to play Wake Forest late in the season. Jake Dickert’s taking over there, and historically, his Washington State teams tend to fade down the stretch.
That could be a prime opportunity for Delaware to punch above its weight against a P4 team possibly trending downward.
All in all, there are a few solid spots where Delaware might outperform expectations. I can definitely see it hitting around five wins, especially if the QBs stay healthy and the defense holds up late in the year.
Pick: Pass
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This FIU team feels like it’s got the potential to be a real scrappy contender in Conference USA this year.
We’re back with Keyone Jenkins entering Year 3 after flashing some serious brilliance last season.
Head coach Willie Simmons was a perfect hire for the program. He’s a players’ coach through and through, someone who clicks with the guys in a way the previous staff just couldn’t.
On offense, expect a running back by committee. Kejon Owens and Devonte Lyons should split the workload, with Anthony Carrie getting some carries in the rotation.
Carrie, who’s coming over from Georgia Tech, isn’t exactly a wild card, but don’t be surprised if he ends up making a big impact. That kind of boost would really energize FIU’s offense.
And on the receiving end, they picked up Alex Perry from Hawaii. He’s a solid weapon and helps plug some of the holes left in last year’s receiver room.
The offensive line does raise some eyebrows. Like many teams, they’re transitioning parts, bringing in FCS guys, and trying to fill some gaps.
But Julius Pierce returning to the program certainly helps, and with three sophomores likely starting, there’s at least some experience there. It's not a fully green unit, which is encouraging.
Defensively, there’s a lot to like. Defensive coordinator Jovan Dewitt remains, entering his fourth year, which means solid continuity.
Last season, FIU’s third-down defense was pretty sharp, holding opponents to just a 32% conversion rate. The Panthers also did a great job in the red zone, forcing 10 empty possessions and 10 red-zone field goals.
The secondary could be something special too. With three steady players and a guy like Brian Blades II, who scouts see as an NFL-caliber defender, FIU should be fine against the pass.
That’s going to be crucial given the passing-heavy offenses popping up in Conference USA.
There’s not a ton of glaring weaknesses here, so the floor for FIU feels pretty solid and probably higher than most expect.
Key matchups will define the season. The rivalry game at FAU looms large, as FIU has struggled here in recent years, but this might be the year it steals a win. How the Panthers start the season against Delaware and kick off conference play will be telling, too.
Then there’s a revenge factor against Kennesaw State midseason, plus a home game against Jacksonville State, and trips to Sam Houston and Middle Tennessee. There are a lot of winnable games here.
Looking back at last season, FIU was stuck in some tight losses, such as a one-point loss to Kennesaw State, an overtime defeat to Liberty and close battles against Jacksonville State and Monmouth. If even a few of those breaks swing their way, the Panthers finish 8-4 easily.
FIU is poised to actually compete for the Conference USA title, not just aimlessly tread water.
Pick: FIU Over 5.5 Wins (Lean)
Jacob Clark is shaping up to be a great quarterback for Missouri State. He’s been in the system for a while now, has solid size and stays calm in the pocket when he has time to throw.
This offense should be a lot of fun and put up solid numbers against Conference USA teams this season, provided the offensive line steps up.
That unit struggled big time last year, giving up 40 sacks and 84 tackles for loss, and at times really failed to open up running lanes.
If the O-line can get it together and start clicking, this offense is going to be electrifying week after week.
One addition I’m really excited about is Shomari Lawrence in the backfield. He started off at South Dakota as an explosive runner before his moves to FIU and now Springfield, and I think he’ll fit right in with the running backs here.
But here’s the thing: this is a transition year for the program. There will be plenty of firsts for this team to deal with.
I think the coaching staff feels ready, and there’s a good core of players in the locker room, but the defense is going to get tested, especially against tougher competition.
Looking at their performances against some of the top-tier FCS schools — South Dakota State, North Dakota State and South Dakota, to name a few — they’ve had a hard time getting off the field.
Run defense has been a problem, and opponents find the end zone regularly against them across all three levels of the defense.
Thirteen of their top tacklers from last season are gone, so there are a lot of new faces trying to fill those shoes.
The transfers on the defensive line and linebackers could be a good sign, though. Guys like Jalen Brooks, who began at UNC, transferred to Campbell, and is now here, could turn things around. His story is a career revival in the making.
The secondary is a bit inexperienced and kind of scattered around, so it’ll be interesting to watch how quickly they gel. You’ll get a better feel for the team when it heads to the Coliseum to face USC, but then it'll have some games that look winnable.
The trip to Marshall in Week 2, for example, shouldn’t be impossible by any means.
Week 3 brings a big challenge, as it hosts ACC foe SMU, which should be a great measuring stick for Missouri State. Then, hosting FCS UT Martin right after should be manageable.
Later in the season, there are some clear opportunities to pick up wins against teams like Kennesaw State, FIU (which could be a coin-flip) and New Mexico State.
The last game just after Thanksgiving is particularly intriguing. Missouri State hosts Louisiana Tech, and if Tech has either wrapped up bowl eligibility or if its season falls apart, the Bears could have a prime situation on their hands. I’ve circled that finale as a potential gold mine for anyone playing against the spread.
Offensively, Missouri State won’t stop throwing the ball. Even if you get caught outside a big number, it'll likely find a way to score late and cover on the scoreboard.
I’m confident in backing Missouri State against the number this season. I don’t have a strong take on the win total, but this offense will be solid and won’t back down.
The Bears' quarterback play should be just fine in this league. The question mark remains the defense’s ability to produce stops. Time will tell.
Pick: Bet ATS Week to Week
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If you dig into Jacksonville State’s returning production numbers, it's absolutely bottom of the barrel in FBS. That's not just in returning production but in production lost, too. That sets it up for a tough, uphill battle all season long.
On defense, it’s going to be a bloodbath week after week. The Gamecocks are hemorrhaging massive production from a unit that was already shaky last year, especially in those first three games when Coastal Carolina, Louisville and Eastern Michigan tore them apart.
Offensively, things weren’t great early last year either. Before Tyler Huff stepped in and took control, the team was in serious trouble.
Now, with scheme changes on both sides of the ball and a new staff in place, they’re turning to a new quarterback in Gavin Wimsatt. He had some marginal moments at Rutgers but wasn’t much of a factor at Kentucky. It’s just hard to get too excited about what Jacksonville State’s offense can do this season.
The schedule isn’t exactly kind either.
Outside the conference, the Gamecocks have UCF, and they have the top dog in CUSA in Liberty to deal with. Then they hit the road for Georgia Southern, which looks to be a strong Sun Belt team this year.
After a somewhat easy opener against a weak FCS opponent in Murray State, they face Southern Miss in a game that’s circled on Southern Miss’ calendar as a must-win after last season’s heartbreak. The Golden Eagles are much improved, so that game could feel like a gut punch.
I honestly see Jax State starting 1-4 pretty easily. Maybe it can scrape together a handful of conference wins, but some stretches look brutal, including back-to-back road trips to Middle Tennessee and UTEP smack dab in the middle of its schedule.
Then there's a home game against Western Kentucky, which will be looking for redemption after last year’s loss in the conference championship. That offense should be more dangerous than last year, even if WKU’s defense still has holes.
Finishing the season at FIU also isn't a walk in the park.
I think Jacksonville State is set to take a pretty big step back in 2024. Last season’s explosive offense that racked up rushing yards and put up 40, 50 and even 60 points in conference games is gone.
This year, it’s going to be a whole different look in Jacksonville, Alabama. Offensively, it won’t pack the same punch, and defensively, it's going to leak big time across all three levels.
I’m not seeing much hope for the Gamecocks here. I have them pegged for a 4-8 finish, and I already bet under 6.5 wins earlier in the offseason.
New head coach Charles Kelly has local recruiting ties, but I’m just not sold. It might work out, but I’m not holding my breath for major success in this first year with him leading the program.
Pick: Jacksonville State Under 5.5 Wins
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs’ defense was a real bright spot last year, especially along the front seven. Led by defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson, they really showed up in the bowl game against Army.
Even when the offense was basically nowhere to be found, that defense held tough, frustrating Army’s game plan and making life difficult for its offense.
The problem? Johnson is now gone to Coastal Carolina, and I don’t see how Louisiana Tech replaces the presence and production he brought. I think this coordinator loss is underrated, and I’m not buying the optimistic takes.
Offensively, it’s been a struggle under head coach Sonny Cumbie. Folks keep talking up his system, but three years in, we really haven’t seen it come together.
Take last season’s third-down conversion rate and red-zone performance. They converted a disappointing 39% of third downs, and out of 48 red-zone trips, they failed to score 13 times and settled for field goals 11 times.
That means half the time they made it inside the 20, they left with three points or less. Not exactly a recipe for consistent offensive success.
Digging deeper, their rushing game was putrid, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry across the season. The offensive line, despite having experience, was no fortress either. They gave up 83 tackles for loss and 41 sacks.
And now, with key starters gone that accounted for 120 career starts on the line, it’s hard to imagine things getting better.
The system loves its slot receivers, but with Tru Edwards no longer around, who fills that void? Frankly, the offense just doesn’t have that "wow" factor, and I don’t see it being anything less than a grind every single week.
On defense, losing Johnson means the guys scheming and drawing up plays aren’t the same. That front seven might struggle to replicate last season’s success against the run.
Ultimately, I can’t see Louisiana Tech getting past six or seven wins this year. Honestly, making a bowl game would be a minor miracle.
The schedule isn’t doing it any favors either.
Right out of the gate, the Bulldogs face heavy hitters like LSU and Southern Miss. Then they have to travel to an emerging program in UTEP in Week 5 before their bye week.
Later, tough follow-up games come against Western Kentucky, Washington State and another cross-country haul to Delaware.
And after all that travel, Liberty comes to town, likely already locked into the Conference USA title game.
Given all this, momentum is hard to imagine. And if things unfold as expected, I seriously question if Cumbie will still be the head coach next season.
If you got in early on the under 6.5 wins, good on you. I just don’t see how this team gets to seven.
The regular-season win market reflects that, with some value still hanging around 6 or 5.5 wins, but this looks like a team destined to struggle just to reach bowl eligibility.
Pick: Louisiana Tech Under 5.5 Wins (Lean)
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There’s a total 180 in the team’s DNA happening here.
Former head coach K.C. Keeler was the guy who built this program up at the FCS level, and they ran a pretty explosive offense back then.
But what they really leaned on was their rock-solid defense. That defense was the anchor during their first couple of seasons transitioning into FBS. Now that Keeler’s off to Temple, they’re bringing in head coach Phil Longo, who’s all about offense.
However, they just don’t have the right personnel to run Longo’s tempo-heavy Air Raid system confidently, especially with Hunter Watson still a question mark at quarterback.
On top of that, they lost major pieces in the skill positions, most notably their leading rusher from last season, Jay Ducker.
Plus, the offensive line has some serious question marks, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the offense takes a while to find its footing as the season progresses.
But the bigger concern is the defense. The Bearkats lost defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity and half of their starting lineup, most of whom followed Cassity over to North Texas.
Looking at the spring roster, they barely had enough depth on defense to put together a solid two-deep. It’s not just talent lost, it’s bodies. That mass exodus creates a huge hole.
Last season, that defense was the backbone for Sam Houston. When its quarterbacks were injured and the offense struggled, the D kept it competitive in low-scoring battles throughout Conference USA play. This year, things are going to look very different.
With a quick-tempo offense that looks like it might struggle to sustain drives, I actually expect quite a few quick three-and-outs and a lot of punts.
That means the defense will be stuck on the field longer, likely tiring and giving up big plays. I don’t see how this will go well. In fact, I could easily see this team dropping its first four games.
The opener against Western Kentucky in Week 0 will be a good barometer for the offense, but the Tops are going to put a ton of points on the board. Then, the Kats host UNLV, a team with a mixed bag but certainly an offense cooking under Dan Mullen.
After that, it’s a tough road trip to Hawaii for a revenge game on the island and a trip to Texas after the bye week, where it’s anyone’s guess what it'll roll out.
Looking beyond that, the Conference USA slate doesn’t get much easier.
UTEP is emerging as a solid team, and the Bearkats have to travel to Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State. I just don’t see this team catching any kind of rhythm. Plus, that weird nonconference road trip to Oregon State should be a rough loss.
I have several games circled to fade Sam Houston this year and don’t expect it to be a contender in the conference. This is a team in transition with a ton of lost production and a defense that’s going to struggle mightily.
For Longo and his staff, it’s going to be a grind, and betting under the win total feels like the safest bet.
Pick: Sam Houston Under 4.5 Wins
Early in spring, I took a futures bet on Middle Tennessee to win the conference at 25-1. I thought it should have been closer to 16-to-1, so I put a little action on it.
There’s definitely room for Middle Tennessee to improve, especially up front on both the offensive and defensive lines, plus in the linebacker group.
It'll need that improvement because when it struggled last year, it really struggled — especially against FCS Tennessee Tech, which plays in the Ohio Valley Conference. That game was ugly.
Nonconference matchups against Ole Miss, Duke and Memphis were rough, too. Within Conference USA, the offense continued grinding, but the defense just couldn’t get stops and gave up tons of yards.
The optimism here is that the Blue Raiders are now in Year 2 of the system under Derek Mason, and some pieces are starting to come together, especially with Nicholas Vattiato in his senior season.
The running back room looks promising with Jekail Middlebrook, who could really develop, and Rickey Hunt Jr. transferring in from Ohio to add some pop.
The receivers have some good size. Myles Butler, Gamarion Carter and AJ Jones all bring length, while Cam'ron Lacy adds a shifty element and some ability to stretch the field. So offensively, there’s some talent in place that could boost production.
One of the key things will be continuity along the offensive line. This unit gave up 30 sacks last season, and Vattiato was basically running for his life every game. If the returning linemen gain experience and gel, that group could take a noticeable step forward. And they have to, given how porous that line was.
I’m expecting marginal offensive improvement and a little more dynamism in the skill positions, something that was missing last year, apart from standout receiver Omari Kelly.
On defense, experience will be crucial, too. The Raiders return some key contributors at all three levels.
At defensive end, Anthony Bynum comes back and will play alongside Damonte Smith and Shakai Woods. The linebacker group has three returning seniors, plus a couple of P4 transfers who should fit into this scheme.
The secondary, however, was rough. They allowed a 67% completion rate, 27 passing touchdowns and recorded only five interceptions. That unit will have to make a huge leap, generating more turnovers and impact plays in the passing game.
Does the talent on both the offensive and defensive lines finally translate into real improvement in Year 2 under Mason?
The pieces are there, and the schedule isn’t terrifying. They have a winnable FCS matchup against Austin Peay to start, then face Wisconsin with no chance there.
But trips to Nevada and a game against Marshall might be more competitive than expected, considering I’m not too high on either of those programs right now. A 3-1 nonconference record isn’t out of the question.
The Conference USA slate is favorable as well.
Their opener at Kennesaw State isn’t a guaranteed loss, and neither is the home game against Missouri State after their bye week. Jacksonville State is trending down, FIU is at home where they can hold serve, Sam Houston is a team in transition, and the season closes at New Mexico State, one of the tougher places to recruit and build a roster.
All told, I count about 10 winnable games. This is a team with multiple shots on goal and a coach in his second year, poised to push things forward.
This isn't a top-tier team, but Middle Tennessee has enough talent to string together wins and finish in the upper half of the standings. I don't think bowl eligibility is a stretch at all.
When I was working on my spring preview for Middle Tennessee, I assumed its win total would open at 5.5. Instead, it opened at 4.5. I’ve been waiting to talk about it, but I took the over 4.5 wins at -148.
I really think there’s a solid chance this team hits six wins and gets to .500. I’m not calling it the conference champs or anything crazy like that — although I did buy a small futures play at that 25-1 misprice — but I like the trajectory here.
Expect some noticeable improvement from Middle Tennessee this year and a roster that looks much stronger from top to bottom than what we saw last season in Murfreesboro.
Pick: Middle Tennessee Over 4.5 Wins
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Last year was another transition season for Kennesaw State, and it was a little surprising to see it fire head coach Brian Bohannon after its first year in FBS. Now, Jerry Mack takes over.
The bigger storyline is watching how the Owls fully move away from the triple-option offense. That system kind of evolved into an inverted pistol option look, but now they’re aiming for something more traditional and faster-paced.
They’re banking on quarterback Dexter Williams II to be the guy to spark the offense and get them moving in the right direction.
That said, I’m not totally sold on what they’ve brought in.
I was actually pretty surprised they kept Gabriel Benyard at receiver. I figured he would’ve jumped ship for bigger opportunities by now, but his presence does add a little offensive pop.
On defense, things are a bit shaky. Kennesaw State will rely heavily on transfers across all three levels on the defensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary.
With so many pieces new to one another, it might take some time to gel. If those transfers click and the defense comes together, they could hold their own in Conference USA.
What really needs to happen is a major offensive upgrade from last season.
Watching the Owls struggle on offense was brutal at times. They just seemed unable to get out of their own way until they faced Liberty, strangely enough, and then they clicked. It was interesting to see that sudden turnaround.
Overall, though, I don’t have a lot of optimism here. They played above their class a bit last year, covering some big spreads, but I don’t see much value moving forward. No future upside, and honestly, not much to get excited about in terms of regular-season wins.
If I had to pick spots to fade this team, I’d start after its second game of the season. They open with a tough road trip at Wake Forest, then hit the road again to face Indiana. That back-to-back grind could expose depth issues and lead to some tired legs.
Later in the season, Kennesaw has games at FIU and Liberty in the finale that are worth watching.
That last matchup, especially, is going to be circled in red for Liberty. Kennesaw won’t have much to play for, but Liberty definitely wants revenge for that embarrassing loss the Owls handed them last year.
All in all, there are probably three key spots where you can confidently fade Kennesaw State — and realistically, probably more — given all the changes this season.
Pick: Pass
Jerry Kill and his staff, alongside Diego Pavia, did an incredible job at New Mexico State a couple years ago. Seriously, hats off to them for consistently winning in a place that’s nearly impossible to recruit to.
The reality is, it’s tough to get players to actually want to head to New Mexico State, so they’ve had to rely heavily on junior college transfers, and that’s a grind every single year.
On top of that, re-recruiting your own roster has become a necessity because standout players get poached all the time. Keeping players there is an uphill battle, especially since the NIL money just isn’t flowing like it is at other places.
So, you end up with a pretty transient team constantly fighting through the typical Group of Five hurdles.
Looking at the 2025 Aggies, I see quarterback Logan Fife more as a stopgap.
Honestly, I was never impressed with what he did at Fresno State, and at Montana, he wasn’t really the go-to guy. He feels like more of a C-minus quarterback who they grabbed out of necessity.
And if you think last year’s QB play at the FBS level was bad, I’d argue New Mexico State’s was probably the worst, including guys like Parker Awad, who’s now competing for the starting spot.
Now, the receiver room does have some genuine excitement. Reports from spring practice say they have some talent who can make plays, so that’s something to watch for.
But the offensive line is a different story. They lost a lot of key guys from last year and now have to depend on a few transfers from the FCS. From what we saw last year — struggling to run the ball and protect the QB — I'm skeptical they’ll turn it around quickly.
That puts a lot of pressure on Fife in what could be his toughest year yet.
Defensively, there’s a bit of hope in the back seven.
The linebacker group looks like it might be the strongest unit, with Gabe Peterson, Tyler Martinez and Sone Aupiu returning. Those are the veterans, and they should carry the defense.
But up front, it’s a mess. New Mexico State will again rely on FCS transfers at nose guard, tackle and end. That's rough after racking up only 14 sacks and 44 tackles for loss. I don’t see that improving overnight.
When you break down the schedule and look at their chances, it’s grim. Road games at Louisiana Tech, Liberty, Western Kentucky, Tennessee and UTEP all look like losses.
They might squeak out a win against New Mexico in the Rio Grande Rivalry, but even that feels like a toss-up.
Middle Tennessee at home is another coin-flip, but I lean toward a loss there. Tulsa might be an exciting program under a high-energy coach, but defensively, it still has work to do. That game feels like another pick’em.
At the end of the day, I’m expecting maybe zero or one road win and maybe three home wins, adding up to 4-8 or so.
I actually took the under on NMSU's win total at plus-money, and I still recommend it. I just don’t buy into the Tony Sanchez experiment at New Mexico State, no matter how much passion and care he brings to the job.
The obstacles he faces in Las Cruces are just too significant, and I don’t see this team competing for the conference title anytime soon. Give me under 4.5 wins.
Pick: New Mexico State Under 4.5 Wins
