The Central Michigan Chippewas take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Detroit, Mich. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Northwestern is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. Central Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +325 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43 total points.
Here’s my Central Michigan vs. Northwestern prediction and college football picks for Friday, December 26.
Central Michigan vs Northwestern Prediction
- Central Michigan vs. Northwestern Pick: 1H Under 22.5
My Northwestern vs. Central Michigan best bet is on both teams to go under the first-half total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Central Michigan vs Northwestern Odds
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Central Michigan vs Northwestern Spread: Northwestern -10.5, Central Michigan +10.5
- Central Michigan vs Northwestern Over/Under: 43 Points
- Central Michigan vs Northwestern Moneyline: Central Michigan +325, Northwestern -425
Central Michigan vs Northwestern College Football Betting Preview
Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Preview: Built the Hard Way
Year 1 under Matt Drinkall was a huge success for Central Michigan.
The Chippewas hadn't been bowling since the 2021 Sun Bowl, and Drinkall had them just one game away from appearing in the MAC Championship this season.
They'll still play in Detroit, just in one of the MAC's most coveted bowl spots the day after Christmas.
After spending half a decade in Army's offensive system (and playing college ball at Iowa), Drinkall brought a run-first approach to Mount Pleasant.
CMU rushed with the second-highest frequency of all non-service academy teams (66.5%), behind only Rice, which runs the gun option. Without many established workhorses, the Chippewas finished 129th in Rushing Success Rate (35.8%).
As a result, Drinkall shifted to a more balanced approach down the stretch, running the ball just over 51% of the time over the final three games of the season. CMU scored 38 and 28 points against Buffalo and Kent State before being stifled by Toledo in a 21-3 loss.
Veteran quarterback Joe Labas leads the passing attack. Angel Flores was a critical factor in the run game and was used as a rushing threat behind center. He hasn't played since Week 9 due to injury but is reportedly set to return for this game.
With Flores in the lineup, CMU averaged more than 200 rushing yards per game, compared to just over 100 without him, according to Action Network's Stuckey.
Like many teams around the country, CMU employs a bend-don't-break defensive philosophy. It allows a quality drive on 44.6% of opposing possessions (84th), but opponents average just 2.8 points per quality possession (16th).
The Chippewas are also solid on first and second downs, frequently forcing opponents into third-and-long situations.
The defense features two first-team All-MAC selections in defensive end Michael Heldman (12 sacks) and linebacker Jordan Kwiatkowski.
An aggressive pass rush helped CMU finish 36th in Passing Success Rate allowed this season, though that was aided by an inferior slate of opposing passing offenses. In fact, eight opponents ranked in the bottom 40 in Pass EPA.
CMU also saw its share of quality losses. Defeats came against Pitt, Michigan, Western Michigan, Toledo and… checks notes … Akron. The first four combined for a 35-15 (.700) record, while the Akron loss (5-7) was rather inexplicable.
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Grind, Defend, Repeat
Quietly, Northwestern completed one of the better turnaround jobs in the country. Coming off a 4-8 season, the Wildcats were almost a unanimous bottom-three pick in the Big Ten, selected second-to-last in the Big Ten media poll.
Instead, Northwestern finished 6-6, surpassing its regular-season win total of 3.5 and pulling off outright upsets of UCLA, Penn State and Minnesota.
Losses to Michigan (24-22), Illinois (20-13) and Nebraska (28-21) were all competitive, and the 'Cats even covered in a 34-14 loss to Oregon.
Offense was the major shortcoming this year. Workhorse back Cam Porter was lost to injury early in the season, but redshirt sophomore Caleb Komolafe (886 yards) stepped up as the top option.
Quarterback Preston Stone threw too many interceptions (12, mostly clustered in two games) and eclipsed 200 passing yards in just one Big Ten game (305 against Minnesota).
A lack of reliable wide receiver talent outside of Griffin Wilde certainly limited Northwestern's passing attack.
Like many Northwestern teams of the past, this group leaned on its defense and tried to shorten games with a plodding offensive pace. The 'Cats ran 64 plays per game (92nd nationally) at a rate of 30 seconds per play (131st).
Fewer possessions meant fewer scoring opportunities for Big Ten opponents with efficient offenses like Oregon and Illinois.
Northwestern's defense is capable of holding down less-talented offenses like Purdue and ULM, but it struggles against more physical and more talented teams such as USC and Oregon.
There's a clear cutoff in talent that defined where the 'Cats were able to win games. The lone exception came against Penn State in what would be the final game under James Franklin, whose relationship with the program had fractured by that point.
Northwestern excels on late downs, and its defensive front is fairly stout. Safety Robert Fitzgerald (88 tackles, 39 run stops) is excellent against the run and earned All-Big Ten honors this season.
There are some injury concerns for the 'Cats, especially in the backfield. Porter won't suit up after suffering a season-ending injury in September. Komolafe didn't play against Illinois, and reserve Joseph Himon II (486 yards) exited that game early.
Both should be available after the extended break, but it's worth monitoring.
Central Michigan vs Northwestern Pick, Betting Analysis
Central Michigan opened as a +12.5 underdog and took the majority of early market movement, now sitting at +10.5. The total has also been bet down slightly, from 44.5 at open to 43.5.
The GameAbove Sports Bowl is played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit, so weather will not be a factor.
The Big Ten has historically performed well in this bowl game (previously known as the Quick Lane Bowl — not the Motor City/Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, which is a different entity).
Since 2014, Big Ten teams have gone 4-1, and power conference teams were 4-0 against Group of Five opponents until Pitt lost a 48-46 overtime thriller to Toledo last year.
Typically, this game serves as a clear illustration of the talent gap between mid-tier Power 4 teams and upper-level Group of Five programs.
That's largely what I expect on Friday.
Northwestern averages 6-foot-5 and 311.6 pounds across its starting offensive line and adds a 6-foot-6, 250-pound tight end in Alex Lines to aid the run game.
Central Michigan has some size up front — most notably nose tackle Jonathan Decker (6-foot-5, 300 pounds) — but that defensive line has been pushed around this season. The Chips rank in the bottom 30 nationally in Defensive Line Yards.
They also struggle to get off the field on third down, while Northwestern's offense ranks top-20 in third-down Success Rate (48.6%).
Central Michigan faced two power conference opponents this year — Pitt and Michigan, both stronger than Northwestern — and averaged just 175 total yards, combining for only 111 rushing yards.
Against the better defensive fronts in the MAC, CMU also struggled. In losses to Western Michigan and Toledo, the Chips rushed for just 55 and 81 yards, respectively.
If you're looking for a repeat of last year's 94-point Pitt-Toledo affair, you won't find it here.
I expect Northwestern to try to sit on the ball and impose its will. Central Michigan, barring a dramatic philosophical shift, also prefers to control possession and shorten the game.
The Wildcats have gotten off to some sluggish starts this season, while Central Michigan has seen more early-game success moving the football. Expect a return to a run-heavy approach if Flores is available for the Chips.
Northwestern allows a quality drive on 50% of opposing possessions (118th) but limits opponents to just 3.3 points per quality drive (47th).
With both teams committed to ball control, the first-quarter clock should bleed quickly, shortening the first half before defensive stops become more frequent — especially if CMU stays within striking distance.
If the full-game total continues to trend downward, grabbing more than half of that number in the first half (in what profiles as a feeling-out process) makes sense.
Pick: 1H Under 22.5 (Play to 21.5)
Central Michigan vs Northwestern Betting Trends
