Last season, a team from the Mountain West claimed the Group of 5's bid to the College Football Playoff. Ashton Jeanty led a powerful Boise State team that dominated the Mountain West and gave top-5 Oregon a scare early in the season.
Could we see more of the same from the Broncos this year?
Action Network expert Collin Wilson jumped in to preview what the conference will look like in 2025 and dish out his top win totals and futures.
With that, let's dive into our 2025 Mountain West Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 Mountain West Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Boise State | -150 |
| UNLV | +700 |
| San Jose State | +700 |
| Fresno State | +1000 |
| Colorado State | +1600 |
| Air Force | +1800 |
| Hawaii | +2000 |
| San Diego State | +3000 |
| Wyoming | +4000 |
| Utah State | +8000 |
| New Mexico | +15000 |
| Nevada | +15000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Monday, Aug 4.
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Boise State's change at offensive coordinator might be one of the biggest drop-offs across all of college football this offseason.
Ohio State didn’t win the national title just because it had a $20 million roster. Plenty of teams have that kind of cash. The real edge was having guys like Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles calling the shots as coordinators. They could make rapid adjustments and completely switch up their game plan on a playoff day.
Last season, Boise State had offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, a guy who could absolutely out-gameplan anyone.
Now, the big question: can Nate Potter fill those shoes? He’s been co-offensive coordinator under Koetter while learning the ropes, but we’ll see if he’s got the creativity and flexibility needed.
We’ve seen other OC and DC hires at Boise before that didn’t pan out as hoped, so the jury’s definitely still out.
Looking at the roster, running back Sire Gaines is an interesting piece — and for good reason, as he's set to replace top-six NFL Draft pick Ashton Jeanty.
The sample size is tiny with only 20 carries, but he forced six missed tackles, which is solid but doesn’t come close to what Jeanty brought to the table. Jeanty was special in that even if he got touched behind the line, he’d still make yards after contact.
Gaines did average four yards after first contact, so that’s promising, but time will tell if he can sustain it.
Then there’s Maddux Madsen. He’s got a gaudy 21:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and that’s got folks pretty optimistic about the offense. But when you peel back the numbers, it tells a different story.
His big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio is 7:13, which is concerning. Plus, he ranked 50th nationally in on-target rate, a metric that looks at whether or not a receiver has to adjust or if the ball lands perfectly in stride.
However, this isn't one of the nation’s best quarterbacks.
Wide receiver Latrell Caples is presumably going to be the guy leading the offense out of the slot after recording 48 targets there last season, so that’s where the focus will be.
On the other side of the ball, I’m probably more optimistic about the defense. Although, I’ve never been super optimistic about an Erik Chinander defense, going all the way back to his stints at UCF and Nebraska.
Boise ranked 132nd in tackling last year, with a bunch of sloppy arm tackles and heads in the wrong spots. Yes, it's aggressive with blitzing, and at home — especially against Penn State — the blitz calls confused Drew Allar.
The top five tacklers are back for this season, so expect a similar deal. Tackling might still be a mess, but everything else should be solid.
Look for star linebacker Jayden Virgin-Morgan to continue impacting the game after racking up 10 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss a season ago.
So, the defense should be about the same as last year, but the offense has questions, especially given the huge drop-off at offensive coordinator.
When it comes to the schedule, Boise is set to be a double-digit favorite in every Mountain West game, so the nonconference and playoff odds are kind of meaningless.
The demand from sportsbooks for Boise to make the playoff is just too high early on; they’re not going to give a good number. So, it makes more sense to focus on the Mountain West schedule.
The market has hung some -140 lines on the Broncos to win the conference, which is probably a better value than catching Boise on a moneyline for a potential Mountain West title game, whether that's in Vegas, San Jose or Boise itself.
Hosting App State right off a bye week could be tricky, but listening to the Sun Belt podcast, I don’t see App State being a huge problem this year.
The bigger challenge is obviously Notre Dame, which I have projected around -15.5. The market seems to be on that number as well.
If you’ve got a risk appetite and are eyeing that playoff prop at +190, I wouldn’t take it. Instead, if you want a better bet, take the moneyline against Notre Dame. I don’t think Boise will win, but that’s a much more reasonable bet than the playoff prop.
To get into the playoff, Boise realistically needs to win every other game, finish 11-1 and keep the game against Notre Dame close.
My personal favorite bet is for the Broncos to win the Mountain West at -140. It’ll be a solid moneyline ticket come Championship Week in December.
Pick: Boise State to Win Mountain West (-140)
Let’s dig into this UNLV situation because there’s a lot going on here, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag.
First off, people are wondering if bringing in Paul Guenther as defensive coordinator — someone with tons of NFL experience but no college background — is a step backward for UNLV’s defense.
But remember, Colorado had a similar situation with Robert Livingston coming from the Bengals. He cleaned house and turned that defense into something solid, so I wouldn’t jump to conclusions about the defense being bad just yet.
On the offensive side, the questions really stack up.
Former Michigan quarterback Alex Orji is known for being cautious with the passing game, so will this signal a shift toward a more run-heavy, Tim Tebow-style attack? Maybe a bit of Wildcat with some “Orji-cat” sprinkled in?
Or maybe they lean on Anthony Colandrea's deep-ball arm.
The guy is a deep-ball specialist, but it’s frustrating because it's either a touchdown or a turnover with him. Watching him is a rollercoaster. He has an 11:2 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio on passes over 20 yards, but every other pass sees a sharp decline. It's boom or bust all the time.
Then there’s running back Jai'Den Thomas, who really caught fire late last season. More than half of his explosive runs came in the final four games, which shows he got hot when it mattered. I expect that momentum to carry over.
But the offensive line has only 25 starts combined, with a lot of new, inexperienced transfers trying to find their footing. That’s a big challenge right out of the gate.
Defensively, Guenther stepped in after Zach Arnett left, but only one of last year’s top 19 tacklers is back, so there are a ton of new faces.
The transfers coming in hail from big programs like LSU, Arizona State, Alabama and Georgia, but many didn’t see much action at those schools. Whether all that talent gels remains to be seen, and maybe Dan Mullen’s SEC connections help these guys find their groove.
The schedule is actually pretty handy here for figuring out what we’re working with early on. The Rebels have Sam Houston, Idaho State and Miami (OH) for three of their first four games, which should shed some light on Orji and Colandrea, and what kind of offense we’ll be seeing.
However, there are just too many unknowns for me to feel confident about betting UNLV for the full season. On the plus side, the Rebs dodge San Jose State in conference play, which is a nice bonus.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting: those back-to-back bye weeks in early October are thanks to having Idaho State in Week 3. That leads us to the play I like — a bet on UNLV against Sam Houston in Week 1.
Now, Sam Houston plays Western Kentucky in Week 0. That game has all the makings of a disaster for the Bearkats offense and defense — they’re just a mess right now. They’ll likely get run over, which means they’ll be tired and banged up by the time they play UNLV.
Meanwhile, UNLV opens at home in climate-controlled Allegiant Stadium against Idaho State, so it won’t need to show its cards just yet.
Come Week 1, UNLV faces a Sam Houston team with one of the worst defenses in college football. Whether UNLV attacks on the ground or through the air, I’m not sweating Mullen’s ability to outcoach Phil Longo here.
Right now, the line’s sitting around -13.5 in the market, but I think it’ll climb closer to -17.5 by kickoff. I’m banking on UNLV to absolutely dominate that game. UNLV -13.5 in Week 1 is my play, and I think we’re on the same page there.
Beyond that, I’m still skeptical. The quarterback situation is shaky. Last year’s standout, Hajj-Malik Williams, was one of the most underrated QBs around.
Everyone focused on Matthew Sluka, but Williams' ability to run read options and keep defenses guessing was a huge deal. Sluka’s more of a power runner, pulling it down and bulldozing ahead, which will help in the Sun Belt, but Williams' versatility was key.
Even though UNLV managed to pull off some close games and had a double-digit win season last year, the roster is very different now. The team we’re talking about for this season isn’t the same one that finished strong.
There’s so much turnover in talent, coaching styles and new coordinators that UNLV is still a mystery. It's piecing together guys from FCS and the Power Four conferences across all positions. It’s going to take time for this group to gel and for us to really understand what they’re about.
For now, I’m sticking with that Week 1 bet and keeping a cautious eye on the rest. This team’s story is far from written.
Pick: UNLV -13.5 vs. Sam Houston (Week 1)
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I’m projecting San Jose State's win total at 7.6, and the line’s sitting at 7.5. From that perspective, there’s really no edge to bet on the wind total. But here’s where the real opportunity lies — an angle playing the conference.
Why was Ken Niumatalolo so effective last year? He quickly stepped back and handed control of the offense over to guys who knew what they were doing. They leaned into the Nick Rolovich-style run-and-shoot spread offense — that “spread-and-shred” attack.
I loved what Rolovich ran at Hawaii and Washington State, and this team brought in Craig Stutzmann to run it here. It just clicked. No matter who was under center, the offense centered around Nick Nash, and it worked beautifully.
But it wasn’t just Nash carrying the load. Quarterback Walker Eget completed 17 big-time throws to just eight turnover-worthy plays, which shows he’s not just tossing easy balls. When he needed to push it downfield, he delivered.
Some people might think the wide receiver group won’t be as electric without Nash, but the player to watch is Sacramento State transfer Danny Scudero.
He put up insane numbers there, and when you see guys like that coming up from Sacramento State, keep an eye on them. Sometimes they fly under the radar in FBS, but they can have high ceilings, like Cam Skattebo did for Arizona State last season.
This team has a lot of firepower in the receiving corps, and while the run game may vary since they lost some offensive linemen, they return 32 starts on the offensive line, including a full-time starter at blindside tackle. That stability up front is huge.
Plus, this offense is the seventh-fastest in the nation, meaning they don’t ask their linemen to hold blocks long; they prefer to get the ball out quickly.
I’m more optimistic than most that losing Nick Nash won’t tank the offense.
Defensively, they’ll be solid across all three levels. Expect them to be a top-three unit in the Mountain West at defensive line, linebacker and in the secondary.
Middle linebacker Jordan Pollard is a strong leader, returning 115 tackles and 12 tackles for loss.
The defense was decent at limiting explosive plays last season and ranked 30th in Line Yards allowed, so expect a similar level of play this year.
But the real star here is the schedule. There's no Boise State. There's no UNLV.
Last year, Colorado State went 6–1 in the conference because it didn’t face much real competition.
San Jose State team hit the lottery with its schedule this season. The road games at elevation come against some of the weakest teams in the conference in Wyoming, Utah State, Nevada and San Diego State. None of those are daunting road trips.
To put this opportunity in perspective, there's a San Jose State +220 to make the Mountain West title game. That’s not a small play for me — that’s a two-unit wager.
This team isn’t going to be challenged much within the conference schedule. Plus, there are no tiebreakers against Boise or UNLV since they don’t play each other, clearing the path even more.
This team may quietly be set up for a big year. The offense should still hum, the defense is solid and the schedule sets up for a strong Mountain West run. The smart play here is backing the Spartans to make some noise in the conference.
Pick: San Jose State to Make Mountain West Championship (+220)
I have backed Colorado State consistently since Jay Norvell took over. Last season, I even had some 40-1s to win the conference. Unfortunately for the Rams, that ends this season.
I make this number about 5.5. That’s a decent bit below what the market’s expecting, but to me, it makes sense.
Last year, the offense leaned heavily on the run, but that was mostly because of injuries. When Tory Horton went down and a bunch of other receivers got hurt, running the ball was pretty much the only option — and they did it well.
Now, with Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi back under center, the offense should swing back to a more balanced — or even pass-first — attack.
But to do that, the offense needs explosive receivers, and that's where I’m not convinced.
Armani Winfield is going to be the guy at wideout, but he averaged just 1.4 yards per route run last season. For context, 2 yards per route run is where players start to be considered “explosive.” At 1.4, he’s not getting much separation and isn’t doing much once he catches the ball.
That’s a clear area for improvement if the passing game is going to take off.
On the ground, I’m also underwhelmed. Running back Justin Marshall was the top option last year, but Tulsa transfer Lloyd Avant outplayed him in the spring game.
Marshall averaged about 3.3 yards after contact, a bit concerning considering they ran a lot of zone-read plays.
Avant is interesting, though. He had only one explosive run last year against FBS competition, but he forced 10 missed tackles over 11 games, which is promising. Still, I don’t see the offense having what it needs to be dynamic or explosive.
On defense, two of the top 11 tacklers are back. But there’s a lot of competition for spots this fall, especially with senior transfers coming in from programs like Iowa State and SMU.
The challenge is, these seniors haven’t seen significant playing time at their previous schools, sometimes because they were buried on depth charts or lost seasons due to the pandemic.
That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re high-level impact players, and I don’t anticipate a big boost from those additions.
The schedule isn’t doing the team any favors, either. It actually gets tougher, including back-to-back road trips at Boise and another tough game hosting Air Force to close the season. The Falcons' triple option will be a real test, and I expect it to give the defense all kinds of problems late in the year.
I’m low on this team. The offense isn’t explosive, the running game looks shaky, and the defense has some questions — especially depth and experience.
Betting under 6.5 wins looks like the smart move here, and if you can find an alternate line under 6, grab that too. It’s a juicy spot.
Pick: Colorado State Alt. Win Total Under 6
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New head coach Matt Entz seems like the perfect guy for the job. He’s going to bring that North Dakota State offense over, and there's a solid foundation for it here.
First off, the move to a 13 personnel sets has always been a boon for Iowa State quarterbacks, in particular, so that’s worth keeping an eye on here.
Now, E.J. Warner’s season at Rice was pretty vanilla. The team managed to hit six wins, but it wasn’t pretty early on as it toyed with its games at the start.
The encouraging part about Warner, though, is that his turnover-worthy play rate has continually dropped, including going from 4.7% to 3.5% last year. He’s making fewer mistakes, which is what a coach wants as his quarterback matures. Even though his numbers at Rice weren’t incredible, he’s trending in the right direction.
There's also 1,000 yards of returning experience, plus 11 touchdowns from running backs Elijah Gilliam and Bryson Donelson.
These guys will power the offense, especially with those 13 personnel sets where you’ll see tight ends flexing all over the place, smashing blocks and creating big plays.
The downside is there's no clear go-to wide receiver yet. That might end up being a tight end, but it’s going to take some time for Fresno to figure out its offensive identity. And the schedule won’t give them much breathing room for trial and error.
Defensively, Fresno is expected to have the best defensive backfield in the Mountain West, which includes Havoc-causing linebackers on the edge and a shutdown cornerback in Al'zillion Hamilton.
Hamilton ended the last season ranked seventh in the nation in passes defended, racking up 13 on his own.
That’s why I’m high on Fresno State’s early game against Georgia Southern on Aug. 30. It’s a game worth watching because of the defensive matchups and what French brings to the offense.
But overall, this schedule is brutal. The first three games feature road trips against Kansas and Oregon State. Both will be tough tests. Kansas runs the ball hard with Jalon Daniels, which could test Fresno’s front seven. Georgia Southern sneaks in as a game to watch too, especially since Fresno’s aerial attack might match up well there.
One big plus for Fresno is that it has three Mountain West conference home games right after bye weeks between October and mid-November against Nevada, San Diego State and Wyoming. That’s a major edge when trying to get an offense clicking.
Still, winning on the road is going to be a challenge. San Jose State, Boise State and Colorado State all pose serious threats, especially with elevation changes and the unpredictability of those road environments. Sometimes weird stuff just happens.
The line sits at over 6.5 wins at -130. I’m exactly at 7 wins in my projection, but I haven’t placed the bet yet because it’s so close. When you’re just a half-win off, I tend to sit on it and watch some more.
If you decide to go over 6.5, I’d suggest hedging on that Sept. 20 game against Hawaii on the island — it should be close to a moneyline opportunity to hedge your bets and stay in the green.
Fresno State has some solid pieces but faces a tough schedule and still needs some clarity on offense. Keep an eye on Warner’s continued development and that 13 personnel set shaking things up. It’s going to be an interesting ride.
Pick: Fresno State Over 6.5 Wins (Lean)
This Air Force team heated up at just the right time last season. Toward the end of the season, Stuckey and I literally flipped on the mics and said, "Betting Air Force this week?"
The Falcons were the hottest squad around, covering four straight and five straight by the end, making them a pretty solid play. Now, they have four of their top five rushers coming back, including the power of Dylan Carson.
What’s really interesting is the quarterback situation. In their spring game, they took fullback Kemper Hodges and slid him in at quarterback. Honestly, I’m kind of a fan of this move. If you’ve got a fullback who can play QB, that’s a brutal mismatch.
We’re talking about running the triple option with some real power behind it. Air Force is going to be consistently efficient and catch a lot of teams off guard, especially ones with weak front sevens. The Falcons will be thumping.
Its defense leans heavily on the interior linemen like Payton Zdroik and Aidan Swartz, but with new linebackers and cornerbacks, they might struggle against teams that like to throw it around.
There will definitely be conference foes who give Air Force fits, but other teams won’t be able to exploit those defensive limitations.
Hawaii and Boise both bring strong front sevens that can clog the triple option. Hawaii’s strength is its defensive line and middle linebacker, though we haven’t seen much from the Warriors yet.
Both Hawaii and Boise will have to deal with playing at Colorado Springs, where the elevation gives Air Force a serious home advantage, especially against Hawaii.
There are some traps on their schedule.
I have the season win total sitting at 6.5, but it’s currently hanging around 5.5 with a lot of juice on the over.
The Falcons play UNLV in Vegas after the Navy game, which is a tough spot. The energy naturally dips going to Vegas, but coming right off a rivalry game with Navy makes that trip even weirder.
Plus, they have a late-season roadie at San Jose State, which isn’t exactly a highlight to look forward to.
Ultimately, I like the over, but I wouldn’t pay the steep -170 at 5.5 wins. There should be a 6-win line available at some point with better juice.
The big hedge, though, is going to be their Nov. 15 game at UConn. Power ratings give the Huskies about a 1.5-point edge there, so it's totally viable to take UConn moneyline and ditch the win total if necessary.
They're looking at two winnable games after that against New Mexico and Colorado State anyway. The latter is a rough spot for the Rams — Air Force will smash that front seven and take control.
Plus, Air Force’s motivation is always high. Even if it's out of bowl contention, it plays hard for pride, and that last game often becomes a season-defining moment.
Again, I like the over, but I'm waiting for a better price.
Also, be sure to keep an eye on the QB situation. Hodges under center is unconventional, but I’m intrigued to see how it plays out. This Air Force team looks like it's ready to thump some heads this season.
Pick: Air Force Over 5.5 Wins
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Timmy Chang’s Warriors are sitting at a dismal 2-15 when playing away from the island. That stat alone kind of sums up the struggle — winning on the road just isn’t happening for them.
The offensive side of the ball has flashed at times, especially with Pofele Ashlock. Two years ago, Ashlock was putting up huge numbers and highlight-reel plays. Last season, that wasn't the case.
Defensively, there’s a glimmer of hope. The top five tacklers are back, and the Warriors’ front seven is among the best in the Mountain West, especially against the run-heavy teams like Air Force.
Hawaii has the talent to stuff ground games. If safety Virdell Edwards II can bounce back after a rough 2023 riddled with injuries and become the player he was before, that would be huge.
The schedule only makes things tougher. Road trips to Arizona, Air Force, Colorado State’s high elevation, plus a strong San Jose State squad and an unpredictable UNLV lineup make this tough.
The UNLV game is basically Dan Mullen vs. Timmy Chang in a chess match of offensive and defensive schemes, and I’m not betting on the Warriors to come out on top there.
What really stands out is how front-loaded this schedule is. By the end of September, half of the Warriors' games are already in the books. That’s six straight weeks of football before a chance to catch a breath.
And guess where that sixth week lands? At Air Force, where it’s hot, tough, and the defense is no joke. They’re going to be begging for a bye week.
This team also returns just 36 starts on the offensive line and ranked 133rd in contested catches last year. There are a lot of lingering problems in all phases.
The Warriors won’t crack 5.5 wins this season. I’m putting the number around 4.6, and I’m happy to roll with that under at plus-money. The road woes, the tough schedule and the offensive struggles all add up to a tough year ahead for Chang and his squad.
Pick: Hawaii Under 5.5 Wins
This Aztecs team will be fast again under head coach Sean Lewis in 2025.
San Diego State totals have been climbing, and I’m hoping they get way too high so we can maybe jump on some unders.
We're always playing the Aztecs overs because watching Bert Emanuel Jr. run this offense will be an absolute blast late at night. Whether it’s a Tuesday or Wednesday night, Emanuel is a king in my book.
Michigan transfer Jayden Denegal will also be competing with Emanuel as snaps as a fellow dual-threat after being unable to get on the field in Ann Arbor.
Only one of the top eight receivers return to SDSU this season, so portal players will have to fill the depth chart at wide receiver and on the offensive line.
Defensively, nine of the top 11 tacklers return, but the unit ranked 120th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 105th in creating contested catches.
Trey White brings 12.5 sacks from the edge, and this could also be the best group of linebackers in the conference.
This is a pass for me, as I project San Diego State at 4.4 wins.
I really think Lewis is moving the program in the right direction, but after the Stony Brook game, I don't have San Diego State favored by six or more in any other game this season.
An upset at home against Cal is on the table Sept. 20, but Northern Illinois, Colorado State, Nevada, Wyoming and Hawaii are all coin-flips.
I’m completely passing on the Aztecs here.
Pick: Pass
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I have Wyoming’s win total pegged at about 5.7, which technically points toward the over. But I’m not sold on this team at all.
Quarterback Kaden Anderson’s stats are seriously inflated, mostly thanks to last season's New Mexico game, where he threw five of his eight big-time completions for the entire season with 342 yards and three touchdowns.
However, he did have a low 2.2% turnover-worthy play rate on 42 pressured dropbacks.
Outside of that, I’m just not convinced.
The run game doesn’t inspire much confidence either, especially with new pieces like Damashja Harris coming over from North Texas and Terron Kellman joining from Charlotte.
Kellan’s track record is particularly concerning, as he consistently struggled with yards after contact and had a high missed tackle rate during his two years there.
On the defensive side, the secondary looks rough. The two-deep group lacks experience, and the Pokes only brought back a single pass breakup from last year.
They'll also break in new starting linebackers in the 4-2-5 scheme. Because of the lack of experience, they'll need the defensive line to step up in a big way.
As for their schedule, they’ve got three winnable games against Akron, Northern Iowa and Nevada. Beyond that, it’s basically a coin-flip every week.
Pick: Pass
I don’t think we can downplay what Bronco Mendenhall is doing back in Utah. That’s his stomping ground for collecting transfers and recruiting, and I fully expect him to have that group back and firing on all cylinders.
But what are we getting this season?
Bryson Barnes — the Utah transfer known for being a pig farmer — is set to step into the starting quarterback role. He earned starting duties again in the last three weeks of the 2024 season, going for eight touchdowns and two picks in that short span.
The concerning part is his turnover-worthy play rate has crept up from roughly 2% to 4.5% since his first year as a Ute.
Still, he racked up 559 rushing yards last year, so he can move, and that might fit whatever ground game offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven is trying to run.
New Mexico transfer Javen Jacobs should rack up a lot of touches in the backfield and from dump-off passes.
However, the wide receiver room is a complete mystery, and only 10 starts return on the offensive line.
Defensively, there's experience at each level with nose tackle Gabriel Iniguez Jr., middle linebacker John Miller and free safety Ike Larsen.
I would expect improvement with Mendenhall teaching fundamentals, but even then, his New Mexico team finished bottom-15 in tackling and Havoc a season ago.
When it comes to total wins, I’m stuck at 5. I just can’t push past 5.5 right now.
The schedule isn’t helping either. Air Force is on there, and a few other matchups give me pause — enough that I’m hesitant to go higher on the win total.
But one bet I’m seriously eyeing is the Week 1 game against Scotty Walden’s UTEP team. The moneyline is sitting at -156, which I think is a little juicy. Utah State should probably be a bigger favorite than that, so I like taking the Aggies against UTEP in Week 1.
Pick: Utah State ML -156 vs. UTEP (Week 1)
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Quarterback Chubba Purdy is gearing up for his sixth season in college football. After logging 187 passing attempts and maintaining a high TWP rate across Florida State, Nebraska and Nevada last year, he's going to try to make an impact.
One guy who should be a reliable target for him is slot Marcus Bellon, who racked up over 522 yards and four touchdowns on 39 receptions last season. Bellon looks set to be Purdy’s go-to guy this year.
The offensive line, though, leaves something to be desire, ranking 92nd in experience.
On top of that, the running back group is taking a hit after losing its top three rushers from last season. So, there are clearly some holes to fill.
On defense, things might stay rough.
Nevada could have the weakest defensive line in the Mountain West, and the secondary isn’t inspiring confidence either, with much of its experience limited to special teams.
Only two of the top 10 tacklers from last year are back in the fold, which isn’t great considering Nevada ranked 123rd in Defensive Quality Drives Allowed last season.
The schedule doesn’t do Nevada any favors either. The Wolf Pack could easily start 0-2 with a tough opener at Penn State, followed by a home game against Brennan Marion and the frenetic GoGo offense at Sacramento State.
Their only other game as a field-goal favorite comes against Middle Tennessee at home. As if that wasn’t enough, they host three of the toughest teams in the league in Boise State, San Jose State and UNLV.
If Nevada is going to find the win column, its best hope might be on the road, where they face Western Kentucky, Fresno State and Utah State off bye weeks.
It’s a tough slate, and it will likely have an uphill battle all season.
Pick: Pass
Head coach Jason Eck is looking to bring the same magic he had at FCS Idaho to this team, and he’s bringing his offensive coordinator, Luke Schleusner, along for the ride.
Montana State transfer Scottre Humphrey and Weber State transfer Damon Bankston will man the backfield. Both ran for more than 1,100 yards at the FCS level last season and will add some real firepower to the ground game.
Idaho transfer quarterback Jack Layne is the favorite to start under center and could be key in establishing some early-season rhythm with Eck and Schleusner.
The linebackers are the strength of a defense that’s otherwise in transition, returning just two of its top 10 tacklers.
On the bright side, they’re getting some fresh talent in the secondary from North Texas and various FCS programs, which could help shore things up.
Schedule-wise, there’s a silver lining: the three games that feel most winnable — New Mexico State, Nevada and San Diego State — are all at home. However, the Lobos project as double-digit underdogs in every road game.
All things considered, I’m projecting about 3.3 wins for this squad. With that number, I’m going to sit out from betting on the Lobos’ full-season win total.
Pick: Pass
