The New Mexico Lobos take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Phoenix, Ariz. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Minnesota is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -118. New Mexico, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +102 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 42.5 total points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. Minnesota prediction and college football picks for Friday, December 26.
New Mexico vs Minnesota Prediction
- New Mexico vs. Minnesota Pick: New Mexico +1.5
My Minnesota vs. New Mexico best bet is on the Lobos to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs Minnesota Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -102 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
- New Mexico vs Minnesota Spread: Minnesota -1.5, New Mexico +1.5
- New Mexico vs Minnesota Over/Under: 42.5 Points
- New Mexico vs Minnesota Moneyline: New Mexico -102, Minnesota -118
New Mexico vs Minnesota Rate Bowl Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Healthy and Hungry
This Lobos team is actually good, and the stats back it up. On offense, they match up with Minnesota’s defense in every key area. EPA/Pass is identical for both offenses, but the Lobos should be able to exploit Minnesota’s secondary.
I also give the edge to New Mexico on the ground, as it should be able to break through the Gophers’ run defense multiple times throughout the contest.
The real difference shows up in Available Yards Rate, where the Lobos rank inside the top 55 nationally.
Minnesota also struggles on third and fourth down, ranking 91st in the nation in that area. New Mexico is far more efficient offensively and holds a clear edge, ranking 45th nationally in average third-down distance, which helps keep drives alive.
The Lobos should also be close to full strength. Their main players are healthy, and the injury list is much shorter than Minnesota’s.
Motivation is also a significant factor here, and it cannot be understated.
New Mexico narrowly missed out on a Mountain West Championship spot, and for a program that hasn’t enjoyed much recent success, this bowl game represents a real opportunity to prove itself.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Nothing on the Ground
On the other side, Minnesota’s offense isn’t very threatening. New Mexico’s secondary isn’t elite, but I don’t think the Gophers will be able to exploit it consistently.
Minnesota is also horrendous on the ground, ranking 132nd in rushing efficiency, making it one of the least effective rushing attacks in the country.
What makes matters worse is that running back Darius Taylor may opt out, and backup RB Fame Ijeboi has entered the transfer portal.
I know head coach P.J. Fleck has been tremendous in bowl games, but his offensive options are extremely limited in this spot.
It’s hard to see how that improves in a bowl setting when a large portion of Minnesota’s offensive depth chart is injured, in the transfer portal or listed as questionable.
The receiving room has been hit by transfers, several running backs are out or banged up, and multiple key contributors carry questionable tags.
This offense already struggled on early downs, ranking 108th in early downs EPA/Play, and now it has to rely on backups with very little chemistry.
New Mexico vs Minnesota Pick, Betting Analysis
When you look closer, it feels like Minnesota is getting credit for its name, while New Mexico is being treated like the same program from past seasons. That's simply not accurate.
We're getting a more motivated and healthier team with stronger metrics across several areas catching points.
Minnesota looks like a team limping into the postseason with a thin roster and no clear offensive identity, while New Mexico appears hungry, focused and ready to win.
I don’t care about Fleck’s past success in bowl games. I’m more than happy to fade the Gophers in this spot.
Pick: New Mexico +1.5
New Mexico vs Minnesota Betting Trends
