Fresno State-Boise State Betting Preview: Are the Broncos Being Undervalued?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus McMaryion and Andrew Van Buren
Fresno State-Boise State Betting Odds, Pick
- Odds: Fresno State -2.5
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Time: 10:15 p.m ET
- TV: ESPN2
Fresno State has been on quite the run, vaulting itself into the College Football Playoff Top 25 with an 8-1 record. The Bulldogs are also 8-1 against the spread, which is tied for the best mark in the country.
Boise State is an underdog on its home field for the first time since 2001 and needs a win to keep pace with Utah State in the Mountain West’s Mountain Division.
>> All odds as of 4 p.m. ET on Thursday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Fresno About to Step up in Class
Fresno State has played one of the weakest schedules in the country. And while the defense is really, really good, its metrics (and therefore the line on this game) are probably a bit inflated.
The Bulldogs have played only four units ranked in the top half of FBS in S&P+ on offense or defense:
- Minnesota Defense (62)
- Toledo Offense (19)
- Hawaii Offense (54)
- Wyoming Defense (42)
Here are their performances against each of the four. They’re well-below Fresno’s season averages, and these games are included in those averages.
Still, the Bulldogs Are Blowing Everyone out
The sign of a good team isn’t always wins and losses; it’s what you do in those wins and losses. And Fresno State has looked dominant against bad competition.
Per S&P+, the Bulldogs had a postgame win expectancy of at least 97% in every game but a loss to Minnesota (60%). That means if you gave each team an equal amount of luck and played the game 100 times, Fresno State would win at least 97 out of 100.
The adjusted scoring margins tell the same story. With the exception of Minnesota, Fresno deserved to win all its games by at least 18 points.