Georgia vs. Auburn Odds & Betting Pick: Do Bulldogs Have Enough Big Play Ability?
Matt Stamey-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Fromm and D’Andre Swift
- Georgia vs. Auburn odds are taking their final shape on Saturday morning, with the Bulldogs listed as a 3-point favorite over the Tigers.
- Our experts cover this pivotal SEC game from every angle, including injuries, personnel matchups and more.
- Get experts' picks on Auburn-Georgia below.
Georgia vs. Auburn Odds & Betting Pick
- Odds: Georgia -3
- Over/Under: 43
- Moneyline: Georgia -140, Auburn +120
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Auburn, Ala.
Give Gus Malzahn a bye week and he will usually get the job done. So can he pull off a home upset over Georgia on Saturday?
The Auburn head coach is 11-0 straight up off bye weeks in his head coaching career. On the other side of the field, Kirby Smart holds a 3-1 record against Malzahn.
The lone loss came two years ago in a similar spot at Jordan Hare Stadium, but Georgia eventually made the national championship game by avenging that loss in the SEC title game.
This year, each defense comes into the game with the advantage over the opposing offense, but which one will win out?
Let’s dive in, with three of our experts giving their four total bets.
Odds as of Saturday at 8:30 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How Odds Have Moved
While a 64% backing of Georgia (currently -2.5) has made the public’s opinion clear, oddsmakers have been hesitant to increase this line in the Bulldogs’ favor because the key number has attracted Auburn money each time they’ve tried. Overall, the 36% of Auburn bets have generated 47% of money, and I’d assume that a good amount of those bigger bets came at +3.
And despite a 50-50 split amongst over/under bettors, the total has fallen pretty significantly behind 64% of money. After opening at 45, it’s now all the way down to 40.5. — Danny Donahue
Injuries Piled Up for Georgia
I mentioned on the podcast the health of Georgia wide receiver Lawrence Cager and the offensive lineman. Cager has returned to practice and should be a full go for the Dawgs.
But center Trey Hill suffered an ankle injury that may put his playing time in jeopardy. Georgia is loaded two deep with recruits in the trenches, but center isn’t a position you want to be rolling out a backup at in a huge road game. — Collin Wilson
Strength on Strength
Each defense cancels out the opposing offense if you dig deep into the advanced statistics. Each team is highly ranked in havoc and havoc allowed. Where these teams differentiate this season is success rate by quarter.
While Auburn has had some successful third quarters this season, the fourth quarter has been below the national average. One of the defining traits of the Kirby Smart era is the success rate of the second half.
This has matched the narrative that has plagued Georgia most of the season — a conservative play scheme in the first half before allowing it to open up on passing downs during the second half.
With our Action Network number directly on Georgia -2, I will be laying off the side pregame on anything at 2 or 3.
I will be looking for the in-game Georgia side before halftime or a 2nd half bet on the Bulldogs, relying on a proven success rate history that suggest Kirby Smart is best after halftime.
Our total is projected at a whopping 57 is well over the market number. Trey Hill and other offensive line injuries will be critical to keeping Jake Fromm clean in passing downs.
I will be monitoring the injuries while the market shifts lower. If all players are healthy, an over is suggested. — Collin Wilson
Collin’s Pick: Over 40.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: Georgia Lacks Explosiveness
I have Georgia 12-1 futures that I bet at the Westgate immediately after Clemson rocked Alabama in last year’s national championship, so I would love for the Bulldogs to win this game and then win out through the SEC Championship. I think that would guarantee a berth in the College Football Playoff, especially considering they’re ranked No. 4 currently.
However, I think they go down tomorrow at Jordan-Hare.
Georgia is rock solid from top to bottom on both sides of the ball but have two primary flaws that I think will end up costing them a shot at an appearance in the CFP.
- The offense lacks explosiveness: Georgia ranks 110th in rush explosiveness and 81st in pass explosiveness
- The defense is missing a star playmaker or two that can swing a game with a pick six or strip six.
Georgia is a model of efficiency but its lack of big play ability on both sides of the ball doesn’t leave them with much margin against elite teams. It even cost the Dawgs at home against South Carolina.
I think Gus Malzahn has a few tricks up his sleeve that he cooked up during the bye that he unleashes in the first half tomorrow to hit some big plays — and I think that could ultimately be the difference. It’s simply too difficult to efficiently drive the ball down the field in a methodical manner on either one of these elite defenses (I actually have the Auburn defense rated slightly higher).
Georgia is no doubt one of the 10 best teams in the country (as is Auburn) but the Dawgs are vulnerable. I took Auburn +1.5 first half and Auburn +3 for the game as I make this closer to a PK.
Maybe Georgia can win by one on a last second field goal and we all go home happy (well, except for Auburn fans and moneyline backers). — Stuckey
Stuckey’s Pick: Auburn 1H +1.5, Full Game +3 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Miller: Georgia’s Defense Has the Edge
This game is known as the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry and there have been some wild contests in this series. There always seems to be a level of intrigue and chaos in when these two teams link up, but I think this one is pretty straightforward.
Auburn quarterback Bo Nix is technically still a true freshman, but by week 12 of the season he’s got plenty of experience. Nix threw for 340 yards in Auburn’s last game but he had just a 56 total quarterback rating (0-100 scale).
The week prior against LSU, Nix was just downright bad, posting a 27.6 total QBR. Nix is going to be a great Auburn quarterback before his time is up, but he just isn’t there yet and this week he faces his toughest test yet.
Georgia’s defense is balanced and absolutely elite as they rank in the top-20, and top-10 in most advanced that I track. There won’t be any throwing lanes for Nix and the struggling Auburn passing attack but the Tigers prefer to keep the ball on the ground as it is. They’ll find just as much resistance in that phase of the game as well as Georgia is 19th in the nation in rushing success rate allowed.
When Georgia has the football it’s strength on strength as Auburn’s defense is very stout. The Bulldogs aren’t explosive in the passing game but they can hit some long runs. Allowing chunk run plays has been the Achilles Heel of Auburn’s defense, so look for D’Andre Swift and Georgia to have some success there.
I make Georgia a 4-point favorite in this contest so I grabbed the Bulldogs at under a field goal earlier in the week. This should be a close, low scoring football game but I’ll side with the team that has two elite units, not just one like Auburn. — Kyle Miller
Pick: Georgia -3 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]