Wilson: Updated Havoc Ratings for Week 12 & How I’m Betting Louisville vs. NC State
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alim McNeil
- Collin Wilson has updated his havoc ratings, which he uses to pinpoint volatile teams that could create betting value, for Week 12.
- More than half the teams in the College Football Playoff Top 25 rank among the top 25 in havoc.
- See the full rankings below, plus how he's betting one Louisville vs. NC State based on these ratings.
The second set of College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday night. Minnesota, fresh off a victory against Penn State, made the biggest jump in rankings history. Handicapping the Gophers has been tough with a strength of schedule rank of 72nd.
Minnesota does not have an easy path, as ESPN FPI gives it a 1.1% chance to win out. Minnesota will enjoy its new ranking this week before a trip to Kinnick Stadium as an underdog.
Over half the teams in the College Football Playoff rankings are in the top 25 in defensive havoc. Minnesota is not.
The Gophers rank 28th in havoc, with a pedestrian 37 tackles for loss. That could be trouble against Wisconsin and Jonathan Taylor to wrap up the regular season.
Havoc allowed has been updated for Week 12 as well, and should be of extra importance to the Georgia Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s team might have the best offensive line in the country, supported by a havoc allowed rating of No. 6.
But all eyes should be on the multiple injuries on Dawgs’ line. Although every player has been cleared to return to practice, the health of the offensive line is the key cog for Georgia.
Our havoc ratings have long pointed out the teams that have built an identity around causing chaos on defense and protecting the ball on offense, and that those are teams you want to bet on. Only a small number of teams rank in the top 25 in both havoc and havoc allowed.
Those teams include Clemson, Wyoming, Oregon, SMU and LSU.
With that out of the way, let’s dive into this week’s Havoc Ratings.
For defenses, havoc rate is total plays divided by the total number of tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pass breakups and interceptions. It can take a defense from good to great.
For offenses, havoc allowed is interceptions, tackles for loss and fumbles. Investing money in offenses that protect the ball is vital.
All odds below as of Wednesday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
My handicapping always starts with the Action Network power ratings, but these havoc statistics for both offense and defense will be used to pinpoint the more volatile teams as a means of unlocking additional betting value.
College Football Week 12 Havoc Rankings
PD is passes defensed, FF is Forces Fumbles, and TFL representing Tackles for Loss. Havoc Rate is calculated per the Five Factors definition.
Louisville at NC State
The tweets and texts came in Saturday night after I ran to the Venetian counter to bet North Carolina State.
Many of them read how confident are you or simply gross.
That is the response you get from backing NC State as five-touchdown underdogs against the reigning national champions.
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) November 10, 2019
I had pure faith in my power ratings that made the game at a touchdown less. Unfortunately, the Pack couldn’t backdoor it.
Our attention comes back on the Wolfpack this week with the havoc ratings. Despite the Clemson loss, North Carolina State ranks 37th in havoc led by a top 25 standing in tackles for loss.
Louisville has not had the most success on the offensive line with ranks of 115th in power success and 124th in stuff rate. The Wolfpack should dominate the trenches.
Success Rate and Explosiveness per CollegeFootballData
Louisville may not have felt the loss of quarterback Jawon Pass until a 25-point loss to Miami that included two interceptions and a fumble.
Micale Cunningham practiced early this week and should be set to return from injury. Cunningham continues to have issues with the read-option and making the correct decision.
Look for NC State to be in the Louisville backfield often, while having enough rushing success on offense to get the outright victory.
Pick: NC State +4 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]