The No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (15-0, 9-0 Big Ten) take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (13-2, 6-2 ACC) in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday, Jan. 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana, which enters as a -8.5 favorite, has rolled through the playoff to the national title game. The Hoosiers dominated Alabama, 38-3, in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal and then crushed Oregon, 56-22, in the Peach Bowl semifinal.
IU has been so hot that there's a very real chance the betting market simply hasn't caught up to how good it is.
Miami, meanwhile, is something of a Cinderella.
The Hurricanes didn't reach the ACC Championship, but they found a way to snag the No. 10 seed with a 10-2 record. Miami kicked off its playoff run with a 10-3 win over No. 7 Texas A&M in College Station before picking up 2 more wins over Ohio State (24-14) and Ole Miss (31-27).
With 2 very different stories here, who holds the advantage in this national title matchup?
We polled 10 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Indiana vs. Miami picks and college football predictions for the 2026 National Championship on Monday, Jan. 19.
Indiana vs. Miami Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Indiana -8.5
By Road to CFB
For the final game of the 2025-26 college football season, the Action Network staff is in near lockstep. Seven of our 10 voters side with the favored Indiana Hoosiers despite the number sitting above a touchdown.
Favorites have won and covered each of the last six National Championship games, dating back to 2019 LSU.
Even removing 2022 Georgia’s historic 65-7 throttling of TCU, the average margin of victory for favorites over this run is 18.4 points; Ohio State’s 34-23 win over Notre Dame last season was the closest result.
Recent results aside, Indiana appears to have the formula for this season.
The roster is packed with redshirts and transfers — 18-of-22 starters on offense and defense (including all 11 on offense) are redshirt juniors or older. That age and experience is evident, especially up front, where the Hoosiers dominated their playoff opponents.
Miami’s defense, stout as its edge rushers may be, does give up chunk plays, and that was on display in the thrilling 31-27 semifinal win over Ole Miss. The Rebels found success with explosive run plays.
The Hurricanes rank in the bottom 10 in explosive rush rate (10.5%), while Indiana has the third-most rushes of 20-plus yards this year (33).
Hoosier running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black should get ample work early as Indiana looks to neutralize a fierce pass rush from Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.
Defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. was re-injured against Ole Miss, though he was a full participant at practice this week. Either way, IU should find success on the ground.
While it’s unwise to handicap a full home-field advantage — Miami is 5-3 against the spread at home this year anyway — there are some benefits to this game being in Miami Gardens, chiefly the familiar routine and comfort of the backyard environment.
Ultimately, this game is won and lost in the trenches, and Indiana has the advantage on both sides. Our staff forecasts a lopsided affair Monday night.
Indiana vs. Miami Over/Under Pick
Over 47.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 47.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 47.5
By Road to CFB
Contrary to our agreement on the point spread, the Action Network staff is more split on the total.
Ultimately, eight of us side that 48.5 is either just enough or too many points, while two lean toward the over.
Chiefly, this siding comes from the tempo each team runs at. The past couple of seasons saw a dramatic shift away from uptempo play and a reliance on winning the line of scrimmage and reducing the wear and tear on players by playing slower.
Playoff teams like Ohio State, Georgia and Texas A&M essentially erased a full game’s worth of plays from the season by slowing the tempo down.
Indiana and Miami subscribe to this approach, as well.
Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in seconds per play and in the middle of the country in plays per game. Both sides also bring a run-first scheme, with Miami’s 35 rushing attempts per game being the 45th-most nationally and Indiana’s 39 rushes per game coming in at 21st.
We’re in an age of high-efficiency, low-tempo offense. But do both teams keep this approach with (a) a full offseason on deck and (b) a National Championship at risk?
We did see Miami push the tempo at times against Ole Miss and Ohio State; Indiana has not yet needed that change in pace. Based on the odds, Miami is more likely to need to kick things into gear.
Having seen what this Hoosiers offense can do, especially with their dominant offensive line led by Pat Coogan, there's a risk that they cover a majority of these 48.5 points themselves.
Indiana dropped 56 on Oregon and 38 on Alabama — two teams with talented but ultimately flawed defenses.
The Hurricanes field an immensely talented, but ultimately flawed, defense. (Note: that defense will be without starting cornerback Xavier Lucas, who's suspended for the first half following a targeting ejection in the semifinal.)
Since Halloween, only Ole Miss found 20 points in regulation against Miami’s defense, and 11 of those 27 points came in the fourth quarter.
Indiana is by far the most complete offense Miami has seen this postseason. If there’s a chance this total goes over, it’s because Curt Cignetti is finding most of the points himself en route to a bone-crushing championship win.
Indiana vs. Miami Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -350 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +280 |
- Indiana vs. Miami Spread: Indiana -8.5, Miami +8.5
- Indiana vs. Miami Over/Under: 47.5
- Indiana vs. Miami Moneyline: Indiana ML -350, Miami ML +280
