Miami vs. Indiana Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 47.5 -108o / -112u | +270 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 47.5 -108o / -112u | -340 |
Just how good is this Indiana team? That's the question everybody is asking heading into the national title game.
Do the Hoosiers warrant being 8.5-point favorites in Miami against a very talented Hurricanes squad that has caught fire at just the right time to log victories over a pair of SEC teams in Texas A&M and Ole Miss, in addition to defending national champion Ohio State?
Miami vs. Indiana Spread Projection
Well, my numbers say yes. On a neutral field, I currently have Indiana favored by 10 points over Miami.
If you're curious, I'd make Indiana a four-point favorite over last year's Ohio State team and only an underdog in the range of 4.5 points against 2019 LSU and 2020 Alabama.
The Hoosiers are efficiency monsters that just out-execute every opponent on a play-by-play basis week in and week out.
They do all of the little things right and avoid all of the self-inflicted wounds (penalties, turnovers, etc.), which could spell trouble for a Miami team that has struggled with discipline many times this season and ranks outside the top 100 in penalties.
Getting back to my projection of 10 on a neutral field, that obviously has to be adjusted for home-field advantage with Miami playing in its own stadium, but by how much?
In all honesty, I'm not sure. This is a very unique situation, and I actually wouldn't be shocked if the crowd was split or even had more Hoosier fans.
I personally went with a 1.5-point adjustment, so I project this spread at right around 8.5, which is where it sits in the market as of writing.
I do think there's a greater chance I'm still not high enough on Indiana.
The Hoosiers could be a repeat of the 2019 LSU Tigers that the market simply could never catch up to, even through the national title game, where more sharp money tried again to fade Joe Burrow and backed Clemson to no avail.
While I don't think I'll be involved in a side, if forced to choose, I'd back Indiana. After all, this is Curt Cignetti vs. Mario Cristobal.
Just look at what Indiana has done during the College Football Playoff. It completely dismantled Alabama and Oregon by a combined score of 94-25, which includes a meaningless last-second touchdown by the Ducks.
Meanwhile, Miami had to survive a pair of late scares against both Texas A&M and Ole Miss to advance in games where it was either tied or trailing at the two-minute timeout.
Miami vs. Indiana Over/Under Pick
I do like the under, which I played at 48 and would bet down to the current number of 47. The pace of this game should be very slow, with both teams ranking in the bottom-10 nationally in seconds per play.
We know how Miami wants to win under Mario Cristobal, who yearns for long, methodical drives led by a dominant offensive line paving the way for a heavy rushing attack.
Can the Hurricanes have success with this formula against Indiana? The Hoosiers feature a dominant run defense, but I do think Miami can get enough of a push at times to move the ball on the ground, which will keep the clock moving.
However, I'm not sure they can consistently run the ball well enough on early downs to completely avoid obvious passing situations on third downs, which is where this Indiana defense thrives with its unique blitz and pressure packages that have given every single opposing quarterback fits this season.
Those could be especially problematic for Miami quarterback Carson Beck, who has really struggled under pressure this season (91st out of 137 quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks under pressure, per PFF).
- Kept Clean: 24 TDs, 7 INTs, 76% completion percentage
- Under Pressure: 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 52.5% completion percentage
Now, he hasn't been under pressure often (just 15% of dropbacks), but that rate should increase on Monday night. I just don't envision Miami having much success on late downs against Indiana's elite third-down defense.
And when the Hurricanes can drive the length of the field, it will be difficult to finish off drives with touchdowns against a Hoosier defense that has allowed both the fewest rushing and passing touchdowns in the red zone.
Keep in mind this is a Miami offense that scored only 17 and 10 points against Ohio State and Texas A&M, respectively.
In order to really beat this well-schooled Indiana defense, a team needs to hit explosive plays in order to exploit the Hoosiers' aggressive scheme. Well, Miami is far from elite in terms of generating explosive plays, so I don't envision the Canes exceeding 17 points here without flukey plays and/or short fields.
So, how about when Indiana has the ball?
It's been a well-oiled machine for most of the year, with an extremely balanced attack led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
Not only is the quarterback play better than last year, but so is the offensive line. Carter Smith has taken the next step and developed into an elite left tackle. The Hoosiers also now have a healthy Drew Evans at left guard and upgraded at center with Pat Coogan.
It's also worth noting that the Hoosiers played a decent chunk of their games this season without the full complement of their weapons on the outside.
Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. are now both fully healthy, and the emergence of Charlie Becker late in the season has added another dangerous deep-threat dimension to this offense with his unbelievable contested catch ability.
With that said, Indiana did score only 20 and 13 points against the elite defenses of Iowa and Ohio State, respectively. It will go up against another one in Miami on Monday night.
Similar to the Hoosiers, the Hurricanes also thrive on late downs thanks in large part to a dominant pass rush, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, who each have the ability to wreak Havoc on every Mendoza dropback.
The right side of the Indiana offensive line is a bit vulnerable, which is where I expect Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to focus his pressure packages.
Miami vs. Indiana Player Prop Pick
That brings me to my favorite prop of Monday night: Fernando Mendoza under 18.5 rushing yards. This has since moved down a bit, but I'd still play it to under 15.5.
Mendoza has cleared 18.5 rushing yards in 10 of his 15 games, but this Miami front provides a whole different challenge.
For the season, he has averaged about 5.5 attempts for just under 19 yards per game. However, that includes only 22 sacks or about 1.5 per game. Miami ranks third in the nation with 3.2 sacks per game.
I think it's safe to assume Mendoza gets taken down at least one or two more times than usual.
He only faced four defenses that ranked in the top 40 in sacks per game this year. In those games, he was sacked 12 times and finished with only 26 rushing yards on 23 attempts.
Amazingly, Miami's defense has allowed only 14 total rushing yards on 127 attempts to opposing quarterbacks for the entire season (playoff included). That's an average of 0.1 yards per attempt and less than one yard per game.
And the Hurricanes did so against a schedule that included a handful of very mobile quarterbacks, including Florida State's Tommy Castellanos, USF's Byrum Brown, Virginia Tech's Kyron Drones and Texas A&M's Marcel Reed.
Ultimately, I think Miami's defense gets to Mendoza a few times to kill drives, which will help both the game under and Mendoza's rushing yards under.
To me, this game will play out more like Indiana-Iowa and Indiana-Ohio State than Indiana-Oregon (keep in mind the Ducks gifted Indiana plenty of points early in that game) in what will turn into a field-position battle with both defenses dominating the line of scrimmage.
Miami vs. Indiana Anytime TD Pick
Lastly, if you're looking for an anytime touchdown play, you can't go wrong with Sarratt, who last failed to find the end zone against an FBS team way back in August against Old Dominion.
Over his last 10 games against FBS competition, Sarratt has scored 15 touchdowns. Indiana just finds ways to get him open near the goal line, and the back-shoulder connection between him and Mendoza is an absolute cheat code.
Miami vs. Indiana Betting Trend
Since 2005, unders in Hard Rock Stadium (technically outdoors with grass) have gone 72-55-1 (56.7%), including 51-38 (57,3%) with a closing total of 47-plus points, going under by about 1.8 points per game on average.
Picks: Under 48 (Play to 47) · Fernando Mendoza Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 15.5) · Elijah Sarratt Anytime TD (-115)
Final Score Prediction: 27-17 Indiana
