Monday's national title game feels surreal for a lot of reasons.
On one hand, we have the unthinkable turnaround orchestrated by Curt Cignetti. Indiana hasn’t been within a country mile of an opportunity like this since the 1960s. And just two years ago, the Hoosiers were the laughing stock in the Big Ten, fresh off a 3-9 campaign.
Now they’re a 15-0 juggernaut that has machine-gunned Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs.
On the other hand, we have the Hurricanes, who are hoping to complete their Cinderella run through the College Football Playoff on their home field.
Interestingly, this exact narrative has played out before the 'Canes.
In 1983, Miami lost its opener, 28-3, to the Florida Gators. Howard Schnellenberger’s Hurricanes would reel off ten straight wins and earn a trip to the Orange Bowl to face the No. 1 Nebraska Cornhuskers. And where did they play that game? You guessed it, in the old Orange Bowl in Miami.
As 11-point underdogs, the 'Canes shocked the world and upset Big Red, 31-30, to secure the school’s first national championship.
Just in case we don’t get an instant classic on Monday night, here are a few National Championship Props and NCAAF Exotics for Indiana vs. Miami on Monday, Jan. 19.
National Championship Odds for Indiana vs. Miami
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
Punt-Punt-Pass (On Points)
- Indiana First Drive Result — Punt
- Miami First Drive Result — Punt
- 1Q Under 9.5
Parlay Odds: +432 (FanDuel)
Shoutout to my BBOC co-host, Duck, for presenting this parlay option on our latest podcast — it’s a sharp angle.
Miami has been slow out of the gates for a while now. Stretching back to their regular-season finale against Pitt, the ‘Canes have mustered all of six points in their past four first quarters.
Their opening drives in those four games, by the way, have resulted in Punt-Punt-Punt-Field Goal.
Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson wants to establish the run against Indiana’s defense. He certainly doesn’t want to dig a hole by putting the ball in harm’s way as Oregon’s Dante Moore did on the very first play of the game.
You can easily picture Mario Cristobal fist-pumping on the sideline as his offensive line pushes the pile, extending a three-yard run into an eight-yard extended Tush Push.
The way I’d describe The U’s first-quarter scripted plays? Offensive line coach porn.
What’s nice about a run-heavy approach from the ‘Canes in the early-going is that there shouldn’t be any explosive plays to throw off this Punt-Punt-Under parlay.
The Hurricanes never break rushing explosives (133rd nationally in Rush EPA). They had all of four 30-plus yard runs this season.
Beck and his receiving corps had more success creating big plays through the air, but Indiana is buttoned up on the backend, ranking fourth nationally in Coverage, second in Tackling, and first in Havoc.
As for Indiana holding up its end of the bargain, there’s a lot of noise in the metrics.
This team is so efficient that the Hoosiers run through mediocre and bad teams like a hot knife through butter.
But Miami’s defense is special.
If you’re looking for elite comps (SP+ top 10 defenses), look no further than the box scores when Indiana faced Ohio State and Iowa.
The Buckeyes put Mendoza under relentless pressure and got home three times while holding the Hoosiers to 13 total points. This included an opening drive punt.
Iowa heated up Mendoza as well (12 pressures, two sacks), forcing him into five unscripted scrambles while holding the Indiana offense 22.6 points below their scoring average.
Miami has the best pass rush in the country and a defensive coordinator who worked for Cignetti for three years.
Translation: The Hurricanes have the athletes and game plan to make Indiana work.
Any number north of 4-to-1 on this parlay is good to go.
Trouble in Paradise
- Carson Beck Over 0.5 Interceptions
- Carson Beck Under 0.5 Rushing Yards
- Indiana -13.5
Parlay Odds: +625 (bet365)
Let’s start with the rushing yards.
The enduring image of Beck’s career will be that game-winning scramble against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. Yet, he still finished that game with -6 rushing yards.
Beck going sub-zero on his rushing total is his calling card. He went negative on the ground in seven games, and he’s gone under 3.5 rushing yards in nine of his 15 starts.
Protection-wise, Miami has an elite offensive line, but Beck has still taken eight sacks during this playoff run. And those sacks came with optimal Miami game scripts for the most part. Miami has trailed for all of 12:32 during its CFP run.
I expect them to trail for most of this game.
Speaking of runs, how about Indiana’s harassment of opposing quarterbacks in the postseason?
The Indiana front seven has been relentless despite drawing talent-rich opponents like Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon. The Hoosiers have racked up 11 sacks, resulting in opposing quarterbacks accounting for -48 rushing yards.
They’re going to smack Beck around like a piñata.
Still not convinced? Here’s a look at some pocket passer comps against this IU defense:
- Illinois’ Luke Altmyer: 7 Sacks, -27 Rush Yards
- Ohio State’s Julian Sayin: 5 Sacks, -29 Rush Yards
- Purdue’s Ryan Browne: 3 Rush Yards
I foresee the game flow breaking down in a way that forces Miami into far more familiar passing situations than it’s been in during this winning streak.
If Indiana can get home three to four times, I just don’t see how Beck is going to generate 20 positive rushing yards.
Meanwhile, more pressure also translates to riskier passes from Beck.
When the Georgia transfer is under pressure, he turns from a fringe All-American (Clean Pockets: 76.3% completion, 26 touchdowns) into a pumpkin. He was only pressured on 16.9% of his dropbacks this season, but in those situations, his completion percentage plummeted (49.1%), and his turnover-worthy play rate spiked (6.5%).
Of quarterbacks with at least 83 pressured dropbacks this season, only 15 were more careless with the football at the Power Conference-level.
When playing in a tie game or with the lead, his touchdown-to-interception ratio was a sparkling 28-to-6. When playing from behind? Just a single passing touchdown and four interceptions.
He will press, and he will get sacked and picked off in this ball game.
If Beck and the offense consistently find themselves behind the sticks and he tosses at least one interception, the roof could fall in on the Canes the same way it did for Alabama and Oregon.
I consider these elements to be correlated, so any parlay at 6-to-1 or higher is worth a flyer.
National Championship MVP: Charlie Becker (60-1)
There’s going to be natural pushback on this pick for a variety of reasons.
Let’s start with the obvious question, “Charlie…Who?”
Unless you’ve been watching a lot of Indiana football this season, there’s a chance that Becker has flown under your radar.
After sparing use on special teams as a freshman, he opened his 2025 campaign buried on the depth chart. He logged just ten snaps in their opener, and the next six weeks didn’t produce many more playing opportunities for the sophomore.
By the time he took the field for warmups on October 25th against UCLA, he’d been targeted all of five times on the season. Against the Bruins, he converted two targets into a pair of receptions for 35 yards. The following week, he caught one deep pass from Fernando Mendoza for 52 yards, but that was his lone target.
At this point, he was a sleeper candidate to get some first-team reps in 2026.
But then Elijah Sarratt went down with a hamstring injury, and Indiana’s WR1 was sidelined for much of November.
The Hoosiers needed a big-bodied receiver to emerge, and it stood to reason that E.J. Williams (6-foot-4) would be that pass catcher.
As it turned out, Williams' usage remained the same, and it would be Becker getting his big break.
Against Penn State, he was targeted nine times, reeling in seven passes for 118 yards. The following week against Wisconsin, he broke the century mark again with a line of 5/108/TD.
Even the return of Sarratt hasn’t pushed the sophomore out of the picture. He tortured Ohio State’s secondary by hauling in six receptions for 126 yards, and he’s followed that up with a touchdown in both of Indiana’s CFP games.
If he breaks out against Miami and eclipses 100 receiving yards for the fourth time in the past seven games, he’ll be in the MVP conversation. At that point, it’ll come down to touchdowns.
To leapfrog his quarterback (Mendoza), he’ll likely need two, if not three, scores. Luckily, he’s both a big play threat (20.5 YPC) and a red-zone target, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he finds the endzone.
Look no further than the anytime touchdown market, which lists Becker as the fifth-most likely scorer on Monday. Even a two-score night isn’t far-fetched according to oddsmakers (+950).
There’s also the chance for an octopus (touchdown & subsequent two-point conversion) to help generate an MVP narrative.
This will be the 12th CFP National Championship Game, and in those first 11 years, the Offensive MVP has been given to a quarterback seven times, a pass catcher twice, and a running back twice.
Indiana’s Mike Shanahan is a crafty offensive coordinator, and while he primarily deploys Becker out wide, he’s moved him into the slot 29 times in the Hoosiers’ past three games. He also worked out of the backfield for a snap against both Ohio State and Alabama.
Could we see a goal-line carry or a pass to him in the flat when he’s lined up at fullback? It wouldn’t shock me at all.
At more than double the MVP odds of his teammate Sarratt (+2500), I’m willing to plunk down some couch change on Becker to be the X-factor on Monday.
