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Kentucky-Texas A&M Betting Guide: Aggies the More Complete Team?

Oct 06, 2018 5:01 PM EDT

Kentucky-Texas A&M Betting Odds, Pick

  • Line: Texas A&M -5.5
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


Kentucky? 5-0? No. 13 in the country? There’s something weird about all that.

But there’s been nothing fluky about Kentucky’s 5-0 start. The Wildcats had a postgame win probability of at least 93% in every game, and an adjusted scoring margin of at least 14 points, per FootballStudyHall.com.

Kentucky enters this game as a 5.5-point underdog against a Texas A&M team with losses to Alabama and Clemson.

Market Moves for Kentucky-Texas A&M

By Danny Donahue

Despite Kentucky’s 5-0 start to the year, a slight majority of bettors are still taking Texas A&M in this matchup.

While the Aggies have drawn 55% of bets, Kentucky has accounted for 66% of dollars wagered on the game, and the line has fallen from +6.5 to +5.5 as a result.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

Kentucky enters this game allowing fewer than two touchdowns to each of its last three opponents. The Wildcats are in rare territory.

The last two teams to be in this exact same spot were Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship vs. Alabama to cap the 2012 season (lost 42-14) and LSU in 2011, also against Alabama, when the Tigers won 9-6 in Tuscaloosa.

By John Ewing

The Wildcats enter October as one of four undefeated SEC teams. Since 2005, undefeated teams to play a game in October or later as an underdog of a field goal or more are 97-77-6 ATS.

It’s rare for a Top 25 program to be an underdog of more than a field goal to an unranked opponent. Since 2005, the ranked teams in this scenario have gone 35-27 ATS.

Injuries, Suspensions

For the first time all season, the ‘Cats will have to deal with adversity on the injury front. Starting left tackle Naasir Watkins (knee) is out, although UK does have a serviceable backup in USC transfer E.J. Price.

More importantly, starting middle linebacker Kash Daniel will miss the first half due to a targeting call in the second half against South Carolina. True freshman Chris Oats (who was a highly touted recruit) will fill the void for the first two quarters in College Station.

Texas A&M also got bad news on the injury front this week as wide receiver Jhamon Ausbon had surgery on his foot and will miss a few weeks.

After Texas A&M lost two starting receivers to the NFL in the offseason, Ausbon was the leader of a very raw group of wideouts. They will certainly miss him against a Kentucky defense that is vulnerable through the air.

Key Metrics for Kentucky-Texas A&M

By Steven Petrella

Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson is averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt, tied for 98th in the country (min. 45 attempts). The Wildcats haven’t had to play catch-up this season, but might be in trouble if they do.

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen and Trayveon Williams

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MSU
MICH
+6.5
47.5
+7.5
41
LSU
MSST
-6.5
44.5
-6.5
46
TEM
CIN
-3.5
48.5
-3.5
47.5
ECU
UCF
+24
64.5
+21.5
65.5
USF
CONN
-31
70
-32
69
WASH
COLO
-17
51
-17
50
TCU
OKLA
+7.5
61
+7.5
62
WSU
ORE
-2
66
-3
68.5
UK
VAN
-11.5
48
-11
46
TENN
BAMA
+28.5
58
+29
57.5
CLEM
NCST
-17
53.5
-17.5
58
IOWA
MD
-13.5
51.5
-9
42.5
PUR
OSU
+12
64.5
+13
68
WISC
ILL
-25.5
54.5
-24
56
IND
PSU
+13
62
+14
58