LSU-Florida Betting Guide: Tigers Finally Getting Respect, But Is it Too Much?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ed Orgeron and Dan Mullen
LSU-Florida Betting Odds, Pick
- Line: LSU -2
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
LSU-Florida truly is one of the tightest rivalries in college football.
These two teams have played every year since 1971, with the Gators holding a 32-29-3 all-time edge. Since 2003, this game has been decided by more than two scores just twice.
Florida coach Dan Mullen is no stranger to LSU. He covered his last four games against the Tigers while at Mississippi State, including a 37-7 straight-up win as a touchdown underdog last season.
When Mullen was Florida’s offensive coordinator from 2005-2008, the Gators were 4-0 ATS against LSU.
Market Moves for LSU-Florida
Unsurprisingly, the higher ranked team is seeing more bets. Nearly 70% of bettors have taken the fifth-ranked Tigers, yet this line has gone from LSU -3 to -1.
Florida has accounted for 39% of dollars wagered on this game, indicating that bigger, most likely sharper, wagers are coming on the Gators.
There’s also been a heavy backing of the under in this game, as 82% of bets and 87% of dollars are behind a low-scoring game. As a result, the total has fallen from 45 to 43.5.
Trends to Know
By Evan Abrams
As head coach of Ole Miss, USC and LSU, Ed Orgeron has leaned heavily to the under when playing on the road at 18-10-1 (+7.4 units). When the total is set below 50, the under is 14-7-1 (+6.6 units).
When Coach O’s teams went over the total in their previous game, like they did by blowing out Ole Miss last week, the under is 6-2-1 when playing on the road, going under by 6.1 points per game.
By John Ewing
Not only is this a good spot to play the under based on Orgeron’s coaching history, but according to the Bet Labs database, the under also has value based on historical trends. LSU-Florida is one of the most bet games on Saturday.
In heavily bet games with low totals (50 or fewer points) it has been profitable to bet the under.
Key Metrics for LSU-Florida
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has still not thrown an interception all season, but LSU has had 26 passes broken up by the opposition. On average, just over 20% of passes defended in college football result in picks, so he’s due for some interception regression.