LSU-Florida Betting Guide: Tigers Finally Getting Respect, But Is it Too Much?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ed Orgeron and Dan Mullen
LSU-Florida Betting Odds, Pick
- Line: LSU -2
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
LSU-Florida truly is one of the tightest rivalries in college football.
These two teams have played every year since 1971, with the Gators holding a 32-29-3 all-time edge. Since 2003, this game has been decided by more than two scores just twice.
Florida coach Dan Mullen is no stranger to LSU. He covered his last four games against the Tigers while at Mississippi State, including a 37-7 straight-up win as a touchdown underdog last season.
When Mullen was Florida’s offensive coordinator from 2005-2008, the Gators were 4-0 ATS against LSU.
Market Moves for LSU-Florida
Unsurprisingly, the higher ranked team is seeing more bets. Nearly 70% of bettors have taken the fifth-ranked Tigers, yet this line has gone from LSU -3 to -1.
Florida has accounted for 39% of dollars wagered on this game, indicating that bigger, most likely sharper, wagers are coming on the Gators.
There’s also been a heavy backing of the under in this game, as 82% of bets and 87% of dollars are behind a low-scoring game. As a result, the total has fallen from 45 to 43.5.
Trends to Know
By Evan Abrams
As head coach of Ole Miss, USC and LSU, Ed Orgeron has leaned heavily to the under when playing on the road at 18-10-1 (+7.4 units). When the total is set below 50, the under is 14-7-1 (+6.6 units).
When Coach O’s teams went over the total in their previous game, like they did by blowing out Ole Miss last week, the under is 6-2-1 when playing on the road, going under by 6.1 points per game.
By John Ewing
Not only is this a good spot to play the under based on Orgeron’s coaching history, but according to the Bet Labs database, the under also has value based on historical trends. LSU-Florida is one of the most bet games on Saturday.
In heavily bet games with low totals (50 or fewer points) it has been profitable to bet the under.
Key Metrics for LSU-Florida
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has still not thrown an interception all season, but LSU has had 26 passes broken up by the opposition. On average, just over 20% of passes defended in college football result in picks, so he’s due for some interception regression.
Burrow turned in his best performance of the year last week against Ole Miss, averaging 11.68 yards per attempt with three scores and no interceptions. It was the first time he’s completed more than 60% of his passes in a game.
Florida’s offense has made big strides in efficiency under Mullen. The Gators rank 32nd in success rate after a 113th ranking last season.
Can LSU’s Offensive Line Hold Up?
Florida has sacked the opposing quarterback on 12.2% of dropbacks, ranking No. 4 in the country. The Gators are also No. 1 in sack rate on standard downs, so they don’t always need to blitz to get to the quarterback. Defensive end Jabari Zuniga (six tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks) and BUCK linebacker Jachai Polite (four sacks, three forced fumbles) form a scary duo on the edges.
LSU’s offensive line has been better than expected (55th in sack rate), but might be missing starting center Lloyd Cushenberry (ankle) and left guard Garrett Brumfield. Left tackle Saahdiq Charles is also questionable, but should play.
Bet to Watch for LSU-Florida
By Ken Barkley
LSU has faced two major tests already this season — the opener against Miami, and a few weeks ago against Auburn. Both were away from home, both had LSU listed as an underdog and the Tigers won each game outright.
One of the oddest things about both games was that the LSU offensive line, thought to be a weakness due to injuries and shuffling, actually thrived. Auburn has a monster defensive line, and the Tigers are currently the No. 1 ranked defense in S&P+.
At home against LSU, Auburn had just two sacks and five hurries for the game. Now LSU’s O-line is missing another piece (its center, no less) and everyone’s banged up. Can the Bayou Bengals hold up again?
I think the biggest thing about this game compared to the others is the level respect LSU is getting in the market. After closing +3.5 against Miami, and +10 at Auburn, LSU is now -2.5 at Florida. A 12.5-point swing between conference road games. I have Florida only a couple points worse than Auburn, so this type of shift seems like overcompensation.
Is Florida still getting rated poorly for the Kentucky loss? The Wildcats might win 10-11 games this year, and that’s starting to look more and more like a completely explainable result.
Each team’s defense has a very similar advantage over the opposing offense in metrics — there’s no predominant coaching mismatch — and each team’s special teams unit has been excellent so far this season.
My numbers have this Florida -2, and while I agree with the trends and research pointing to the under as well, my strongest play in this game is on the Gators. I am really hoping public money drives this back to +3 at some point before Saturday afternoon.